Weather forecasts: India - Revision history

Jyoti: /* 2019 */

2022-05-06T06:32:54Z

‎2019

Jyoti: /* Arrival of monsoon, 2014-18 */

2021-05-31T18:33:38Z

‎Arrival of monsoon, 2014-18

Jyoti: /* 2009-16 */

2020-11-19T12:25:27Z

‎2009-16

Jyoti: /* IMD’s monsoon prediction vs. Skymet’s */

2018-10-07T12:18:21Z

‎IMD’s monsoon prediction vs. Skymet’s

Jyoti at 12:17, 7 October 2018

2018-10-07T12:17:09Z

Pdewan: /* Methods of forecast */

2018-05-29T23:05:46Z

‎Methods of forecast

Pdewan: /* Year-wise forecasts */

2018-05-29T22:59:57Z

‎Year-wise forecasts

Pdewan: /* Year-wise forecasts */

2018-05-29T22:57:02Z

‎Year-wise forecasts

Pdewan at 21:38, 12 April 2018

2018-04-12T21:38:24Z

Jyoti at 00:52, 30 April 2017

2017-04-30T00:52:43Z

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 '' Monsoon forecast vs actual, 2019 ''
 [[Category:Climate/Meteorology|W WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA
 WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA]]
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+[[Category:India|W WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIAWEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA
 WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA]]
-[[Category:Pages with broken file links|WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA
-[[Category:S&T|W WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA
+WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA]]
 WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA]]

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 '' Monsoon's onset date vs IMD's forecast, 2014-18 ''
-[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|W
+==2019==
 WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA]]
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+[[Category:India|W WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA
 WEATHER FORECASTS: INDIA]]
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 ==2009-16==
 [[File: Forecasts vs actual monsoon, 2009-16.jpg|Forecasts vs actual monsoon, 2009-16; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=19_04_2017_029_012_015&type=P&artUrl=Positive-signal-for-economy-as-IMD-predicts-normal-19042017029012&eid=31808  The Times of India], April 19, 2017|frame|500px]]
-See graphic, 'Weather forecasts: India, 2003-2015'

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:18, 7 October 2018
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	In an update released on August 1, Skymet downgraded the monsoon to “below normal” at 92% of the long period average — a forecast that came close to the actual figure of about 90.6%.		In an update released on August 1, Skymet downgraded the monsoon to “below normal” at 92% of the long period average — a forecast that came close to the actual figure of about 90.6%.
		+
		+	===2018: IMD’s overall forecast vs. IMD’s regional predictions===
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F10%2F01&entity=Ar01605&sk=550DDEB9&mode=text Amit Bhattacharya, IMD’s regional rain forecasts prove to be more accurate, October 1, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+
		+	While IMD’s overall monsoon forecast missed the mark this year, the department’s regional rainfall predictions proved to be far more accurate.
		+
		+	The department had forecast good rainfall over northwest India at 100% of LPA. The region saw its best monsoon in five years which ended at 98% of LPA. Likewise, its forecasts for central India (99% versus actual of 94%) and south peninsula (95% versus 99%) were well within the 8% error margin.
		+
		+	East and northeast India, however, performed below expectations with just 76% rainfall during the season as against a forecast of 93%.
		+
		+	In its first two forecasts (in April and May), IMD had said the monsoon was likely to be 97% of LPA. In an update for the second half of the season (Aug-Sept) released on August 3, IMD had forecast 95% rainfall for the two months. The actual rainfall during the period was close to 87%. September itself ended with a massive shortfall of more than 23% and was the driest monsoon for the month since 2015.
		+
		+	In contrast, private forecaster Skymet had forecast poor rainfall in August (88%) and a slightly better performance in September (93%). The opposite turned out to be true, with August rainfall being slightly less than 93% of LPA.
		+
		+	In the event, fairly good rainfall distribution, despite the overall shortfall, kept the rain deficiency down to 12 subdivisions of the country out of 36 (33% of total). The deficiency was higher if one looked at the districts with 38% of districts for which IMD had data (252 out of 659) showing deficient or large deficient rainfall.
		+
		+	Last year, too, IMD had forecast a normal monsoon but it had ended up in the “below normal” range. The season’s deficit last year was 5%. However, the deviation of actuall rainfall from the forecast was within IMD’s 4% margin of error.

	=Methods of forecast=		=Methods of forecast=

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 [[Category:Climate/Meteorology |W ]]
 =Methods of forecast=

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 • This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India’s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also be more easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions.
-=Year-wise forecasts=
+=Monsoon, actual and forecast=
 ==2003-2015==
 [[File: Weather forecasts india.jpg| Weather forecasts: India, 2003-2015; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Gallery.aspx?id=03_06_2015_023_050_002&type=P&artUrl=HOW-OFTEN-DOES-THE-MET-GET-IT-RIGHT-03062015023050&eid=31808 ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:52, 30 April 2017
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	[[Category:S&T \|W ]]		[[Category:S&T \|W ]]
	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology \|W ]]		[[Category:Climate/Meteorology \|W ]]
		+
		+	[[File: Forecasts vs actual monsoon, 2009-16.jpg\|Forecasts vs actual monsoon, 2009-16; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=19_04_2017_029_012_015&type=P&artUrl=Positive-signal-for-economy-as-IMD-predicts-normal-19042017029012&eid=31808 The Times of India], April 19, 2017\|frame\|500px]]