Latest revision as of 17:33, 11 June 2024

Indpaedia has a separate page about assembly elections in every state.

The current page, Legislative Assemblies: India, covers:

i) the all-India picture, and

ii) 'mini-general elections', when elections were held simultaneously for the assemblies of more than one state.

This is a collection of articles archived for the excellence of their content. Additional information may please be sent as messages to the Facebook community, Indpaedia.com. All information used will be gratefully acknowledged in your name.

1 Disciplinary action
- 1.1 Suspension of member beyond one session undemocratic
2 Dress code
- 2.1 Gujarat MLA in T-shirt evicted
3 Election results, trends: involving more than one state
4 Number of MLAs
- 4.1 2021
5 Sittings of assemblies, per year
- 5.1 1952- 2023
- 5.2 2012 > 2021
6 Socio-economic composition
- 6.1 2021: Assam, Kerala, TN, WB
7 Workload: assemblies vis-à-vis the parliament
- 7.1 2003-13
- 7.2 2011 to 2016: MLAs work much less than MPs
8 See also

[edit] Disciplinary action

[edit] Suspension of member beyond one session undemocratic

AmitAnand Choudhary, January 29, 2022: The Times of India

New Delhi: Holding that suspension of a member from any assembly beyond one session is grossly violative of “basic democratic values” and worse than expulsion, the Supreme Court on Friday said the July 5, 2021 resolution passed by the Maharashtra assembly to suspend for a year 12 BJP MLAs after they allegedly misbehaved with the presiding officer is “unconstitutional, arbitrary, grossly illegal and irrational”.

[edit] Dress code

[edit] Gujarat MLA in T-shirt evicted

March 21, 2021: The Times of India

MLA in T-shirt evicted from Guj assembly

Gandhinagar:

There was uproar in the Gujarat assembly after speaker Rajendra Trivedi ordered the eviction of Congress MLA Vimal Chudasama from the house for wearing a T-shirt. The speaker had earlier asked Chudasama not to wear casual wear in the house.

Even as the speaker asked Vimal Chudasama to leave the house, wear formal attire and return, the Somnath MLA continued to protest, prompting the speaker to direct sergeants to evict him. While BJP MLAs demanded that Chudasama be suspended from the assembly, Congress MLAs vociferously backed their colleague and opposed the speaker’s decision.

Trivedi insisted that to maintain decorum of the house, members ought to refrain from wearing casual wear. “I campaigned in a T-shirt and won. I have been attending assembly proceedings for more than three years wearing a Tshirt. This T-shirt is a certificate given to me by my voters. You are disrespecting my voters,” Chudasama said. TNN

[edit] Election results, trends: involving more than one state

Indpaedia has a separate page about assembly elections in every state.

The current page, Legislative Assemblies: India, covers:

i) the all-India picture, and

ii) 'mini-general elections', when elections were held simultaneously for the assemblies of more than one state.

[edit] Population and geography ruled by political parties, 1961-2021

The Times of India

Population ruled by political parties, 1961-2016;
The Times of India, Feb 2, 2017

Geography ruled by political parties;
The Times of India, Feb 2, 2017

States ruled by Congress, BJP, Left and others, 2021
From: The Times of India

See graphics

Population ruled by political parties, 1961-2016

Geography ruled by political parties

States ruled by Congress, BJP, Left and others, 2021

1961: Blues on song

Indian National Congress ruled the vast majority of the country, with 95% of its population under chief ministers from the grand old party

1971: Emergency effect

Congress’s popular support began to wane in the mid-1970s. The Emergency declared by PM Indira Gandhi in 1975 ended with the Congress losing its grip on power at the Centre for the first time after the 1977 Lok Sabha elections

1981: Status quo

After a brief interlude, Congress was back and remained the party to beat in the dramatic decade that saw the birth of BJP at its beginning and ended with Mandal protests as the 90s took off

1991: Rise of the regional power

From having 80% of India’s population under its chief ministers, Congress was reduced to 26%. Meanwhile, regional parties went national and their rising appeal saw the population under their governments jump from 8% to 49% in a decade. BJP took two big states: Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

2001: Lotus bloom

The count of states under BJP rule shot up from 4 to 11. Share of population in BJP-ruled states almost doubled, from 13% to 25%

2011: One-man show

The decade began with Congress in power in 18 states and UTs, but soon everything changed. Riding on Narendra Modi’s popularity, BJP notched landslide victories across North, East and West India

2021

States like Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh that had gone to BJP returned to the Congress camp and the party also joined the ruling alliance in Maharashtra. But all the North-Eastern states are now saffron. And with alliances, BJP rules in 24 out of 36 states/UTs, that is, two-thirds of the country.

[edit] 2008, 2013

2008, 2013: How the people voted in the legislative assembly elections in
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Mizoram
Rajasthan, and
Telangana
From: October 7, 2018: The Times of India

See graphic:

2008, 2013: How the people voted in the legislative assembly elections in
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Mizoram
Rajasthan, and
Telangana

[edit] 2011-2016: changing political landscape

The changing political landscape in Indian states, 2011-16; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, May 20, 2016

Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal: how the various political parties fared in reserved seats, in seats with a significant Muslim vote and in the tea plantations, in the 2011 and 2016 elections to the state legislative assemblies; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, May 20, 2016

See graphics:

The changing political landscape in Indian states, 2011-16

Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal: how the various political parties fared in reserved seats, in seats with a significant Muslim vote and in the tea plantations, in the 2011 and 2016 elections to the state legislative assemblies

[edit] 1993

[edit] The post-Babri ‘mini-general election’

INDERJIT BADHWAR with Zafar Agha / Assembly polls: BJP attributes losses to all other parties unfairly ganging up against them/ India Today / Dec 15, 1993

Madhya Pradesh: The Congress(I) won comfortably with 173 seats

[Nov 1993]'s mini-general election …virtually coincided with the anniversary of the December 6 Babri Masjid demolition and the concomitant deluge of violence.

But a year later, in the political denouement to that fateful event, the iconography was neither bloody, nor vengeful nor characterised by any ineluctable, jackbooted march of religious bigotry. The prevailing images were those of serenity in which a quiet and peaceful political transformation took most politicians by surprise.

The recurring metaphor for this election was "referendum" - the direct approval or disapproval by a majority of a limited issue. The term was used ad infinitum by BJP leaders.

Party President L.K. Advani and Kalyan Singh, the folk hero of the Babri Masjid demolition, had repeatedly intoned that the people's verdict in the state polls would vindicate the act.

In flourishes of electoral rhetoric, Kalyan Singh stated that if the BJP got even one seat less than the 221 it held in Uttar Pradesh - "cultural nationalism" - it would be tantamount to rejection of the mandir movement. The party got 44 fewer seats.bb Far short of forming the Government.

The pace, the tone, the idiom and the reference point for these elections had been set by the BJP. Party leaders had exhorted audiences to decide whether the December incident was an exhibition of "national shame" or an act of "national pride", marking the beginning of the "largest national movement" in history, as the BJP's Ayodhya white paper put it.

The poll was also to be the day of the people's judgement on the dismissal of the BJP's four state governments. Aaj chaar pradesh, kal sara desh (Victory in four states today, the rest of the country tomorrow), was the slogan.

it was strange indeed to see the party resile from its public postures. Having lost in Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh and faring badly in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

BJP leaders denied that they had ever called the elections a referendum. Then in the strangest twist of all, their national leaders even attributed their losses to all the other parties unfairly ganging up against them.

This spoke volumes about the BJP's position. For this was a party that had advocated "ganging up" against the Congress(I) in 1989 when it allied with V.P. Singh and the Left. And then, after it began to gain steam on its own, it prided itself on its uniqueness and isolation in which it stood out as the sole representative of the Hindus against a hostile secular world.

Whatever the combination of caste and local issues, they worked this time in their own way to checkmate the Hindutva millenarians who had propagated the gospel that their brand of cultural nationalism would steamroller all differences between castes and regions.

In the rural areas particularly, there was a noticeable swing away from extremism on account of three elements: a late-dawning but increasing common-sense perception that Ram should not be exploited for political purposes (the demolition of the mosque, the wiping out of the "irritant" had already weakened the old appeal): a gradual fear that the violence that rocked Bombay was counterproductive to economic betterment and jobs: and the fear that communal rioting ultimately strengthens what the villagers despise the most: the local police forces.

And this time the Muslims did nothing to help the BJP. They openly rejected the mullahs and the fatwas and made sure that fundamentalist fortresses like Aligarh and Moradabad remained free of shows of Muslim communalism that irritate ordinary Hindus. They waited instead to strike, not through separatist leaders, but through the system. And while in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh they reluctantly chose the Congress(I), in Uttar Pradesh they chose Mulayam Singh Yadav.

And you can't ignore numbers when they stare you right in the face. Among Uttar Pradesh's voters, for example, Harijans constitute about 21 per cent. Yadavs over 17 per cent, and Muslims nearly 19 per cent. Together it's a winning combination. But numbers alone do not win elections. A leader has to enunciate a clear theme, and Mulayam's brand of anti-BJPism was evocative.

Even though V.P. Singh in 1989 awakened the political tastebuds of the backwards through his Mandal and anti-corruption cocktail, the full potential of the combine that ultimately benefited Mulayam remained unused because V.P. Singh had played the role of OBC champion and the Harijans stayed mostly with the Congress(I) and the Muslims divided their votes.

Even the OBCs did not unify solidly behind V.P. Singh because the leadership of the movement remained in the hands of upper caste Thakurs and Jats. In 1991, when Hindutva occupied the commanding heights of politics, the Janata Dal was badly divided and the OBC and even Harijan voters shifted their allegiance from traditional bases to the BJP.

For the first time the Dalits, taking a cue from the Yadavs began sensing the power that comes from having your own party rather than riding on the coat-tails of the Congress(I), and they swung towards Kanshi Ram.

This was a potent combination that the Muslims could ignore only at their peril if they wanted a Hindu alliance to defeat the BJP. And this time they did not break rank.

And in any case, the election verdict is a mixed bag for political parties. The Congress(I) showed the potential of reviving itself if charismatic leaders enunciate a clear and forceful line as they did in Madhya Pradesh.

V.P. Singh may take solace in his Mandal mantra but his party is in a shambles. Its vote banks have deserted it. Its leaders are confused.

And the disappearance of this third force from national politics could lay the groundwork for a final confrontation at the Centre between the Congress(I) and the BJP. -

[edit] Congress(I): A Badly Needed Reprieve

By Zafar Agha

Prime Minister Narasimha Rao: Finally, he has something to wave about Though they did not say so, Congressmen were profoundly relieved to discover that the party had performed much better than many of them had dared to hope.

The BJP had managed to convey such an impression of strength that some sections of the Congress(I) had been psychologically intimidated. The final results exorcised that fear when desperately desired victories came in Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. While in Rajasthan the Congress(I) could have done better if it had not been beset by factionalism, Madhya Pradesh showed that when leaders like Arjun Singh, Scindia, Kamal Nath and the Shuklas united to tackle the BJP in a determined fashion, it could win votes.

Secondly, there are still some disgruntled elements who would prefer to have a more dynamic leader than Rao. Union Minister of State P.R. Kumaramangalam fired the first salvo, demanding the resignation of the entire CWC.

But this was before the Madhya Pradesh verdict was known. The results there came as a godsend for Narasimha Rao, vindicating his decision to dismiss the four BJP governments and demonstrating to his detractors that, despite their anxieties about his vote-winning abilities, the party had put up a creditable show.

Which was why Rao curtly told Kumaramangalam to resign.

One significant consequence is that Rao can now press ahead with his economic reforms. Commerce Minister Pranab Mukherjee said after the Madhya Pradesh victory: "It is an endorsement of our policies.

[edit] Bharatiya Janata Party: Charting a New Course

By Yubaraj Ghimire

L.K. Advani: Why isn't the party line working?

For L.K. Advani and the BJP, it is not only seats that have been lost in these elections but also a precious momentum. Not to mention loss of face.

From the time of the BJP-sponsored bandh in February [1993] to the Janadesh yatras undertaken by four top leaders to mark the start of the election campaign, it was intent on declaring that it was the only party on the move.

Perched on a self-proclaimed higher moral ground, the BJP warned that the four state elections were merely a precursor of things to come and their victory would finally rob Rao of any excuse to continue in power.

Eventually, none of that came to pass. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP registered just 33 per cent of the vote, a mere 2 per cent increase over its 1991 figure and despite a record 55 per cent turnout this time.

Having climbed from two Lok Sabha seats in 1984 to 88 in 1989 and then 119 in 1991 using the Ram card, the BJP saw no reason to scale down its Ram rhetoric in Uttar Pradesh, especially since these were the first elections after the demolition.bb

Though the leadership did try to diversify, one senior R SS leader explained the failure by saying: "The BJP cannot change tack so fast because it takes a long time for the R SS to recommend any change."

This is why, despite instructions to hawks like Murli Manohar Joshi and Uma Bharati not to be too rabid, the party still ended up harping on the old themes.

Yet, none of this worked as well as it had in the past. For one thing, non-BJP parties confronted the BJP head-on over the demolition issue. Joshi, for one, may now argue that the party should have pushed a more militant line but with A.B. Vajpayee unlikely to endorse any anti-Advani move and Joshi still considered the most unpopular of the trio, Advani will probably have the final say in any policy changes.

The BJP appears to have learnt it cannot continue as a single issue party and still hope to grow

His enemies within the party, however, are already saying that only six months after he took over as president the party has suffered a severe setback. Joshi will be joined by others who will demand a return to militant Hinduism.

It might have worked once but wouldn't for ever. Also, Hindu militancy might be harder to resuscitate in Uttar Pradesh given the SP-BSP alliance, although party leaders hope the alliance will crack up due to caste tensions between the Yadavs and Dalits.

The BJP will be quick to chart a fresh strategy. It appears to have learnt the lesson that the name of Ram will not keep conjuring up the votes it needs and that it cannot continue as a single issue party if it hopes to make more headway.

"From Ram mandir, we should turn to Ram Rajya based on concrete socio-economic policies," said K.N. Govindacharya, party general secretary.

A pointer to its future stand is that it intends to adopt policies designed to win over the Dalits and backward castes even if it means diluting its previous opinions, fashioned by upper caste Hindus.

"A reverse in a couple of states does not worry us." said one national executive member. "But more and more backwards and SCs whom we consider to be Hindus leaving the Hindutva fold certainly does."

[edit] Janata Dal: Swallowing a Bitter Pill

By Javed M. Ansari

V.P. Singh: Lying down and rolling with the punches

Deserted by its vote banks and reduced to a mere regional grouping, the Janata Dal is a spent force today.

For the Janata Dal, the results from Uttar Pradesh have been a draught of bitter irony. While the party had long ploughed a lonely furrow on its twin planks of social justice and secularism, it is the SP-BSP combine that has reaped the benefits.

The Janata Dal has had to countenance the loss of its vote bank of Muslims, SCs/STs and the backwards to the alliance and finds itself reduced from its position as the main opposition - it won 91 seats in 1991 - to a minor player, locked in battle with the Congress(I) to spare itself the humiliation of also-ran status.

In fact, of the four main parties in Uttar Pradesh, it was the Janata Dal which garnered the smallest percentage of votes. It got a paltry 13 per cent, compared to the SP-BSP's 33 per cent, the BJP's 33 and the Congress(I)'s 20.

More galling yet, in the fight for the minority vote, while the alliance got 55 per cent and the Congress(I) 21 per cent, the Janata Dal was left with just 15 per cent. This, despite the Delhi Shahi Imam's fatwa in its favour.

The party's dismal fate was sealed when the BSP's Kanshi Ram took his SC-ST votes to Mulayam Singh. It did not take the Muslims long to realise that the duo would be the safest bet to defeat the BJP.

Moreover, the party did not have a leader of Mulayam Singh's stature to project as chief minister. And after V.P. Singh's withdrawal from the campaign due to ill-health coupled with the party's perennial insolvency, the Janata Dal campaign ran aground in the last crucial week.

The virtual rout in the crucial state has reduced the party to a regional grouping.

"In today's political environment, there is little justification for the Janata Dal's existence," says party leader Ramakrishna Hegde.

In Rajasthan, it frittered away the Jat vote thanks to the infighting between Jat chieftains 0.P. Chautala and Ajit Singh.

And in Himachal Pradesh, where the Janata Dal was never a strong force, the results confirmed its nonexistent position and the fact that the state has adopted a two-party system with the BJP and Congress(I) ruling alternately.

The Janata Dal hardly had a strategy. Even the euphoria over the pre-poll unity of the various factions evaporated as Devi Lal, Chautala and Yashwant Sinha deserted the fold. The pro-Mandal lobby led by Laloo Yadav and Sharad Yadav took a strident line, while Hegde, George Fernandes and Biju Patnaik pressed for a more broad-based policy. "We can't survive as a single issue party," said Fernandes.

There is every reason to suspect that leaders who came together only recently will go their separate ways. Ajit Singh is already feeling uneasy with the polarisation between the SP-BSP alliance and the BJP on caste and communal lines. "Most of my supporters have gone to the BJP," he admits.

While the party plans its next move, the leaders still do not see eye to eye. Laloo Yadav wants the party to support a BSP-SP government in Uttar Pradesh to keep the BJP out, but Ajit Singh thinks otherwise - there's no love lost between him and Mulayam Singh.

But the biggest question is about the leaders themselves. Ajit Singh's men have been humbled in his dens of Baghpat. Barnala and Sardana. In Chandra Shekhar's citadel, Ballia, the party failed to win a single seat. And V.P. Singh's hometown, Manda went to the BSP.

Indeed, the outcome of these polls could not have come at a worse time for V.P. Singh. His health is failing and his party is in disarray. Within the Janata Dal, the forces and the individuals he nurtured have begun to turn their backs on him.

And here's the irony: having given his all to the OBCs, V.P. Singh now finds himself labelled an upper caste leader. Scoffed a senior partyman: "You cannot talk of social justice and be an upper caste leader."

[edit] 2012-16: `Others' got more seats than BJP + Cong in 30 polls

The Times of India, May 21 2016

That BJP has gradually replaced Congress as the dominant party in Indian politics and that recent assembly polls have accelerated that trend is obvious, but the reality is that between them, the two national parties have won less than half the seats and votes polled in the latest assembly polls in 28 states (excluding Telangana, which was part of Andhra Pradesh when the last elections were held there) and two union territories, Delhi and Puducherry . In these 30 elections dating from 2012 and including the fi ve just concluded, a total of 4,117 seats were up for grabs.BJP has secured a decisive lead over Congress by winning 1,051 of them against the latter's 871. That makes a combi ned total of 1,922 seats. But all other parties put together have won 2,195 seats, or more than half the total. Seat tallies can be a mis leading indicator of po litical dominance. This is not only because a party can get a lot of votes but hardly any seats in the first past the post system, but also because an MLA in, say, Sikkim, represents a much smaller population than one in Uttar Pradesh but both count as one in the tally.

A better indicator, therefore, is how many votes each party has won. Here again, BJP's combined tally of 12.6 crore votes from the 30 polls beats the Congress' 11.8 crore, even if the gap seems crore, even if the gap seems much smaller than in the seats. Again, though, the rest with 33.5 crore votes comfortably beat the combined tally of the two big national parties. BJP and Congress put together have won 42% of the votes polled, 58% going to the rest.

Some of this 58% has, of course, gone to allies of BJP or Congress, like Shiv Sena or Akalis in the case of BJP, or DMK and RJD in the case of Congress. Nevertheless, these are not votes won by the two national parties on their own.

More importantly , the bulk of the 33.5 crore votes polled by the rest has gone to parties like Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Trinamool Congress, Biju Janata Dal, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Left in Kerala or Tripura which are not aligned with either of the two national parties.

[edit] 2012-17: State assembly elections

States ruled by the BJP and Congress, 2012-17; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, Manipur and Goa; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017, Goa and Manipur; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

See graphics:

States ruled by the BJP and Congress, 2012-17

Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand

Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, states, Manipur and Goa

Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand

Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017, Goa and Manipur

[edit] The political map of India, 2012, 2017, 2018

The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states in 2012, 2017 and 2018
From: December 12, 2018: The Times of India

See graphic:

The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states in 2012, 2017 and 2018

[edit] 2014- 2020

The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states, 2014- 2020
From: November 12, 2020: The Times of India

See graphic:

The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states, 2014- 2020

[edit] 2014-19: BJP won most MLA seats, Cong not far behind

Seats won by Congress in 2014
From: Mach 11, 2019: The Times of India

Seats won by BJP in 2014
From: Mach 11, 2019: The Times of India

Seats won by Federal Front in 2014
From: Mach 11, 2019: The Times of India

Seats won by- Non aligned but won't back BJP; Non aligned and can go either way, in 2014
From: Mach 11, 2019: The Times of India

See graphics:

Seats won by Congress in 2014

Seats won by BJP in 2014

Seats won by Federal Front in 2014

Seats won by- Non aligned but won't back BJP; Non aligned and can go either way, in 2014

[edit] 2015-23

A political map of India that shows which party ruled which state between 2015 and 2023
From: [From the archives, The Times of India]

See graphic:

A political map of India that shows which party ruled which state between 2015 and 2023

[edit] 2018-19: Which party ruled how many states

Seats won by major political parties in 2014;
The timeline for voting for 17th Lok Sabha elections: April 11, 2019 till May 19, 2019.
From: March 11, 2019: The Times of India

See graphic:

Seats won by major political parties in 2014;
The timeline for voting for 17th Lok Sabha elections: April 11, 2019 till May 19, 2019.

[edit] 2017

Population and territory governed by BJP and its allies, March 16, 2017; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

[edit] State assembly election results analysed

The Times of India, Mar 12 2017

State assembly election results analysed, 2017

BJP Vote Share In UP Rises 25% From '12, Cong's Down In 5 States

Impressive as the BJP's showing was in terms of seats in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur, a look at how vote shares have shifted compared to five years ago makes the performance even more creditable.

In UP, the party upped its share by a jaw-dropping 25 percentage points since 2012 almost equaling its 2014 share. Considering that was in a Lok Sabha poll in which national parties typically perform better than in state elections, it is quite an achievement to have nearly held on to what it got at the peak of the Modi wave.

In Uttarakhand, the party saw its share climb from 33% in 2012 to 46.5% this time. In a state that has always witnessed close contests in the assembly polls since its formation in 2001, this allowed the BJP to sweep the state with a 13 percentage point lead over the rival Congress.The BJP added to its share essentially by eating into the shares of all others.

In Manipur, the saffron party has become the single largest in terms of vote share with 36.3% helped in some measure by a sharp seven percentage point decline in the Congress' share. In comparison to these sharp climbs, the drop in vote share in Punjab and Goa looks trivial.

In contrast, the Congress lost vote share in every one of the five states, the sharpest falls coming in Manipur and Uttar Pradesh, though the latter was partly due to the party contesting much fewer seats.

Akali Dal was another big loser in vote share, shedding close to 10 percentage points compared to the 2012 elections. However, this was just a little lower than its 2014 vote share which suggests that expectations of a complete meltdown of its base were grossly exaggerated. For AAP, a 23.7% vote share in its first foray in assembly polls in Punjab may seem like a promising beginning, but the party would be disappointed that it couldn't better its 2014 performance, when it won 24.4%. With the same share spread thinner this time, it could win just 20 seats while it had led in 33 in the Lok Sabha polls.

[edit] Perceived behaviour of castes, communities

Voting behaviour, community and caste-wise, 2017; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

See graphic:

Voting behaviour, community and caste-wise, 2017

[edit] 2018

[edit] Assembly elections in 5 states: BJP loses

[edit] State-wise results

The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Seats won by the major parties in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh
From: December 12, 2018: The Times of India

The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Mizoram, Telangana
From: December 12, 2018: The Times of India

See graphics:

The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Seats won by the major parties in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh

The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Mizoram, Telangana

[edit] Aam Aadmi Party’s performance

Alok K N Mishra, ...But losses in 4 states a dampener, December 12, 2018: The Times of India

The results of assembly elections were a dampener for AAP, which had put its political aspirations to test in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Chattisgarh. It contested on 482 seats across the four states and lost all of them.

While the party has no base in these states, it maintained that it has only gained strength by contesting there, regardless of the result. The decision to contest, apparently, came after volunteers from these states urged the party to contest there to keep the volunteers motivated.

AAP contested 208 of 230 seats in MP. It announced a CM candidate and also released a manifesto, promising Delhi-like health and education services. AAP leaders extensively campaigned in the state, including the party’s MP in-charge Gopal Rai and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh. Majority of the candidates lost their deposits while the CM candidate, Alok Agrawal, who also heads the MP unit of AAP, finished fourth on the Bhopal South West seat.

The party had big hopes in Rajasthan where its state unit switched to poll mode months before elections were announced. In April, senior leader Deepak Bajpai was appointed the incharge for Rajasthan. Bajpai replaced disgruntled AAP leader Kumar Vishwas who, AAP had said, was unable to devote time for the state.

Bajpai camped in the state to pick candidates and claimed that the party was certain of making a huge debut this time. AAP hardsold its Delhi model of governance through its manifesto and deployed a battery of leaders from Delhi to campaign in the state. Arvind Kejriwal also held one election rally in Jaipur.

AAP originally planned to contest all 200 states in Rajasthan, but eventually contested on 147 and lost on all.

The Chattisgarh results were also disappointing for the party as none of the 85 candidates could win. AAP’ chief ministerial candidate for Chhattisgarh, Komal Hupendi, remained at the third position while many of the party candidates lost their deposits. An almost similar situation was witnessed in Telangana too where the party fielded 41 candidates.

AAP’s Telangana incharge Somnath Bharti blamed the poor performance on the alleged deletion of 22 lakh voters. He also said the purpose was to defeat BJP but AAP found it difficult to beat the money and muscle power it faced.

[edit] Assets, age, gender

The MLAs elected in December 2018- average assets, average age and gender
From: December 12, 2018: The Times of India

See graphic:

The MLAs elected in December 2018- average assets, average age and gender

[edit] BSP’s performance

Hindi belt gifts Mayawati a mixed bag, December 12, 2018: The Times of India

So it turns out that it was not Congress that got bruised by the Mayawati/Jogi alliance in Chhattisgarh. BSP vote share in fact dropped from 4.45% in 2013 to 3.9% even as, without it, Congress romped to a thumping victory.

But had Congress and BSP contested together in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, they would have crossed the finishing line easily – instead of GOP being halted teasingly short of the majority mark on counting day.

BSP attracted 5% vote share in MP and 4% in Rajasthan, compared to Congress’s 40.9% and 39.3%. This should shape alliance talks for the next Lok Sabha elections. Mayawati must accept realistic seat share arrangements, now that Congress has established how strongly it can bat by itself in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and MP.

The lesson for that mahagathbandhan, especially in light of how mahakutami crashed and burnt in Telangana, is that pie-in-the-sky seat sharing where junior allies gobble much more than is healthy, ends in regrets not celebrations. In Uttar Pradesh, in exchange, Mayawati should be able to call the shots rather than Congress.

In other news relevant for mahagathbandhan talks in the Hindi belt, across MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, SP was beaten convincingly by NOTA.

[edit] Cong neutralised vote katuwas/ spoilers

Subodh Ghildiyal, How Cong swung it with some luck & a lot of pluck, December 13, 2018: The Times of India

In both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Congress’s victory margins were slim, but it was not counting on its luck alone. Here was a party showing a lot of pluck as well.

After a string of defeats since 2014, Congress also appears to have found ways to counter BJP’s strategy of saddling it with ‘vote katuwas’ or ‘spoilers’.

In Madhya Pradesh, the party actually finished with a vote share that was 0.1 percentage points less than that of BJP. Yet, it won 114 seats — just two short of majority — while BJP ended at 109. Congress managed to convert votes into seats more effectively than BJP.

In Rajasthan, Congress’ vote share was just 0.5 percentage points more than BJP. But this made a huge difference in the seat tally.

Congress argues the anti-BJP sentiment was so strong that multiple poles like Bharatiya Tribal Party, 11 of 13 independents with Congress roots, BSP and CPM got some anti-BJP votes as well. Non-Congress, non-BJP votes totalled 21.9%, with 9.5% going to independents.

Luck may or may not have played a part in helping Congress in the first-past-the-post system, but the party did show some nimble-footedness unlike in the past.

As the counting in MP turned into a protracted exercise and the clash turned into a cliff-hanger, Congress stitched up the loose ends, spending the entire day contacting likely winners in BSP, SP and independents. Sources said Congress started to win over the ‘others’ winning MLAs so early it could have formed the government even if it had won fewer seats.

State chief Kamal Nath sought the governor’s appointment on Tuesday while counting was still on, claiming Congress would emerge as the single-largest party and could form the government with others’ support.

It was a marked change from Goa and Manipur where Congress emerged the single-largest party ahead of BJP and barely short of majority, but found that BJP had already bagged the ‘others’.

A noticeable change was Congress’ ability to overcome “spoilers” who threatened to turn a direct face-off with BJP into a triangular contest.

[edit] NOTA (none of the above) reflects the public mood

[edit] MP: Nota votes dislodge 4 BJP ministers

Angry Nota votes knock out 4 BJP ministers in MP, December 13, 2018: The Times of India

The roller-coaster ride on counting day and the heart-stopping scoreline had a common factor — tens of thousands of confused and disgruntled voters. In an election supposedly fought on pro- and anti-incumbency, Nota surprisingly had fifth largest tally of votes in Madhya Pradesh.

The number of no-choice votes crossed victory margins in a whopping 22 constituencies, felling four powerful BJP ministers. While the gap between BJP and Congress vote share was only 0.1% (BJP being in the lead), Nota bagged 1.4% of votes polled — over 5.4 lakh.

BJP (41%) and Congress (40.9%) were followed by BSP with 5% vote share and Gondvana Gantantra Party (GGP) at 1.8 %. Nota, at fifth place, polled more votes than SP (1.3%) and AAP (0.7%).

Of the 22 seats, where Nota topped victory margins, there were four constituencies where ministers lost by a whisker. The lowest victory margin was 121 votes in Gwalior South, where Nota got 1,550 votes, leaving MoShome Narayan Singh Kushwaha wringing his hands in despair.

In Damoh, finance minister Jayant Malaiya lost by only 799 votes, while Nota polled 1,299 votes. In Jabalpur North, MoS, health, Sharad Jain lost by just 578 votes while Nota bagged 1,209 votes. In Burhanpur constituency, minister for women and child development, Archana Chitnis, lost by 5,120 votes and Nota’s score was around 5,700 votes.

While BJP bled more due to Nota — ending up on the losing side in 12 of these 22 seats — Congress received some battering as well. In Timarni seat, Abhijeet Shah of Congress lost to Sanjay Shah of BJP by a margin of 2,213 votes while Nota got 4,084 votes. In Nagod constituency, Congress heavyweight Yadvendra Singh lost by a thin margin of 1,234 votes, while 2,301 votes went to Nota.

Bundelkhand and Malwa drew the highest number of Nota votes that triggered upsets. Of the 22 seats where Nota trumped victory margins, nine are in Bundelkhand and eight in Malwa. In Bundelkhand, it is believed that the campaign by some upper caste organisations to vote for Nota, rather than BJP or Congress, may have been a factor. They were upset with both major parties for the SC/ST Act ordinance that bypassed Supreme Court’s directive for investigation before arrest in cases filed under the Act. In Malwa, tribal regions saw most Nota votes, apparently due to lack of awareness. It’s a common feature in tribal areas, but in such a close election, it turned out to be a tipping factor.

[edit] Nota costs BJP dearly in Rajasthan

December 13, 2018: The Times of India

It was a marginal difference in voteshares of the Congress and BJP that sealed the fate of outgoing CM Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan.

BJP secured a voteshare of 38.8% while Congress, which with 99 seats emerged the single-largest party, took 39.3% of votes polled — a difference of a mere 0.5%. A total of 1.39 crore votes went to Congress while BJP bagged 1.37 crore votes. That works out to a difference of about 1.70 lakh votes.

Interestingly, the none-ofthe-above or Nota option accounted for 1.3% of the votes. These figures all go to show how much of a close fight it was between the two major parties in the state.

BJP, which swept the 2013 assembly polls with a voteshare of 46.05% and 163 of the 200 seats, saw a 7.25% dip in voteshare this time. Its tally in 2018 was down to 73. Congress, in 2013, secured a 33.71% voteshare and had 21 seats to show for it.

Even if it were to be believed that BJP lost 5.6% of its voteshare to Congress, the remaining 1.65% may be put down to Nota — which is conventionally seen as a vote

against the ruling party -- the more than 15 rebels who contested as Independents and smaller parties.

Coming to terms with the near miss, state BJP leaders are now claiming a moral victory for the party. “Congress has performed only slightly better than BJP. There was no Congress wave. Even the victory margins for several Congress MLAs have been quite low,” said state BJP leader Jyoti Kiran.

[edit] Rural and tribal areas; parliament and assembly seats

Why heartland could turn out to be hurtland for BJP, December 12, 2018: The Times of India

The performance of the BJP and Congress in rural and tribal areas; and in parliamentary and assembly seats
From: Why heartland could turn out to be hurtland for BJP, December 12, 2018: The Times of India

What would happen in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls if voters stuck to their party preferences? A mapping of the assembly segments onto the relevant parliamentary seats suggests that the BJP would still win 17 out of 29 in MP and 13 out of 25 in Rajasthan, but get almost wiped out in Chhattisgarh winning just one of the state’s 11 seats.

But does such a mapping make sense? Past experience suggests it is not a bad rough guide. These states have held assembly polls barely six months or less ahead of the Lok Sabha polls of 2004, 2009 and 2014. In each case, their verdict in the parliamentary seats has more or less mirrored the assembly outcome. The sole exception is Rajasthan in 2004, when it gave the BJP 20 of 25 Lok Sabha seats despite having defeated the party in the December 2003 assembly polls.

If the pattern holds, that could be really bad news for the BJP since it had won all 25 seats in Rajasthan, 27 of 29 seats in MP and 10 of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh in 2014. That’s a total of 62 out of 65 Lok Sabha seats. The current mapping suggests that number could come down to 31, half of the 2014 tally. Of course, the Congress tally would rise correspondingly. Given that the 2014 performance would be hard to repeat in Uttar Pradesh anyway, this is a loss the BJP can ill afford.

[edit] Vote share: BJP loses, but not only to Cong

December 11, 2018: The Times of India

With the BJP suffering losses in three key states, its vote share has taken a sharp dip in Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh since the last assembly elections in 2013, but all these votes do not seem to have gone to the Congress alone as other players have also reaped the gains.

The vote share loss is even bigger for the saffron party since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, in which it had virtually swept all the three states by winning 62 out of 65 seats, as per the Election Commission data.

In Telanagana and Mizoram, it is the regional parties who have come out with flying colours, a post-2014 trend clearly visible in many states with sizeable presence of non-BJP and non-Congress parties.

Political pundits said this trend indicates that the regional satraps might play key roles in 2019 general elections for which attempts are already underway by non-BJP parties to put a united front against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's bid for a second term.

For Chattisgarh, the latest data showed the Congress getting 43.2% votes in this elections, up from 40.3% in the 2013 state polls and 38.37% in the 2014 general elections, where the party won only one out of 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

In comparison, the BJP's loss has been wider with its vote share dipping from 41% in 2013 to 32.9% now. In 2014 general elections, the party had got nearly 49% vote and 10 out of the 11 Lok Sabha seats.

The voting share analysis shows that some smaller parties and independents have managed to get more votes. While BSP had got 4.3% in 2013, its alliance with former chief minister Ajit Jogi's party has now got about 10.7% votes.

Independents have also improved their performance from 5.3% to 6.3%.

Similar trend was visible in Rajasthan where BJP's votes have fallen from 45.2% in 2013 to 38.8% now. It was much higher at nearly 55% in 2014, when the party won all 25 Lok Sabha seats from the state.

On the other hand, the Congress has improved its vote share from 33.1% in 2013 to 39.2% in 2018. It had managed to get nearly 30% votes despite losing on all seats in last parliamentary elections.

Independents have improved their assembly tally from 8.2% to 9.5%, while bagging larger number of seats.

The vote share situation is the most interesting in Madhya Pradesh, which saw the closest fight between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress' share has improved from 36.4% in 2013 to 41.4% in 2018 assembly polls, while that of the BJP has come down from 44.9% to 41.3%, as per the latest update.

The BSP's share here has actually fallen to 4.6%, while that of the independents has remained nearly same at over 5%. However, some other smaller parties have made gains.

In Telangana, the TRS is returning to power with a bigger mandate and a rise in its vote share from nearly 34% last time to about 47%. The Congress has also improved from 25.2% to 28.7%, though its newly-found ally TDP, which was earlier with BJP, has taken a beating.

BJP's vote share has remained almost static at about 7% since last assembly elections in 2014. However, its vote share has come down from 10.4% in 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Mizoram is the only state where the Congress has lost its vote share and the BJP has gained. However, the winner there is a third player, the Mizo National Front, which has returned to power with a clear majority by ousting the only Congress government left in the North-East.

The Congress vote share has come down from nearly 45% in 2013 to just about 30%, while that of BJP has risen five-fold from 0.4% to 8%.

The MNF has improved from 28.8% to 37.6%, while its seat tally has risen from five to 26. The Congress seats have come down from 34 to five, while the BJP has won its maiden assembly seat in the state.

While the vote share data for 2018 polls was still being updated by the poll panel, the final figures are expected to remain around these levels.

[edit] Winners and losers

The winners and losers of the Assembly elections in 5 states held in December 2018
From: December 12, 2018: The Times of India

See graphic:

The winners and losers of the Assembly elections in 5 states held in December 2018

[edit] The meaning of the results

The meaning of the results of the state assembly elections of December 2018
From: December 12, 2018: The Times of India

See graphic:

The meaning of the results of the state assembly elections of December 2018

[edit] 2019

[edit] Lok Sabha elections

[edit] Region-wise: the strengths of various parties

June 2, 2023: The Times of India

The strengths of the various parties in the regions in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019
From: June 2, 2023: The Times of India

See graphic:

The strengths of the various parties in the regions in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019

There’s A Move Afoot In The Opposition To Pose A United Challenge To BJP In Next Year’s Lok Sabha Elections. While Each Opposition Party Has Its Strongholds, Fort BJP Is Much Larger. Atul Thakur Shows Where The Different Players Had Planted Their Colours In 2019:

[edit] Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections

Oct 2019: The results of the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections
From: Ajay Sura & Manvir Saini, Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

See graphic:

Oct 2019: The results of the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections

[edit] What the verdict means

Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

This was not supposed to be a competitive round. After the big BJP wins in Maharashtra and Haryana in the Lok Sabha elections only 5 months ago and the widely perceived support for decisions on J&K, the party’s win was a given. However, voters sprang a surprise by denying BJP a majority in Haryana and restricting its mandate in Maharashtra. The outcome will disappoint BJP and could trigger introspection about the adequacy of its “nationalist” plank in local leagues, especially amid an economic slowdown. It does not undercut its political pre-eminence but sharply underscores the challenges to its bid for countrywide dominance that Congress once enjoyed.

The less-than-impressive saffron show just when it had seemed “unreachable” by a big distance is a tribute to the tenacity of the “local” — short-hand for personalities and factors that influence choices at the grassroots. They may be pushed to the background in an LS poll, yielding an overarching theme or a popular national leader like Narendra Modi, but return with vengeance in state elections. Results of by-elections and, in many cases, success of rebels are also a testimony to the resilience of the rooted. The Indian experience provides validation for former US Speaker Tip O’ Neill, who famously said all politics is local.

ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN:

A slowing economy, unemployment and rural distress were issues and the jury is out on whether and to what degree they hurt BJP. Opposition parties predictably brought them up and pointed to a sullen mood. But to what ‘extent’ remains unresolved, considering that BJP picked up over 300 seats in the LS election against what some considered a very adverse setting. Also, BJP faced incumbency in both Haryana and Maharashtra and couldn’t have returned the numbers they did if they had faced large-scale resentment. Possibly, the discontent over kitchen table themes kept BJP from fully leveraging its assets CASTE MATTERS: Caste solidarity which yielded to Modi’s personal popularity and the strength of his plank, proved its salience yet again.

The dominant castes of Marathas and Jats, who were feeling downsized, demonstrated their relevance.

The performance of Pawar and Hooda owe a lot to caste support which also boosted new regional satrap Dushyant Chautala. The staunch support from their kin allowed their leaders to forge formidable social constituencies at the local level

ARTICLE 370: Difficult to say to what extent the seemingly popular move to do away with the special status for J&K helped or hindered BJP. For, finding a reliable answer would require complete clarity on how the party would have performed if the ‘nationalist’ issue had not been in play. Also, Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda broke ranks with Rahul Gandhi to back the decision, while NCP’s Sharad Pawar and JJP’s Dushyant Chautala refrained from opposing it. But the slim win in Maharashtra and failure to score an outright win in Haryana will reinforce the view that local can trump national in regional arenas. Opposition parties may feel encouraged to resist BJP’s aggressive posture on the matter

REGIONAL PLAYERS: From Arvind Kejriwal to Mamata Banerjee, regional satraps must be relieved. For, an emphatic performance by BJP would have left it thirsting for similar feats on their turfs. It could also have lent impetus to JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar’s scarcely concealed plan to keep BJP as his junior partner in Bihar for the coming state elections had he not fared so poorly in the by-polls GRAFT CASES: Whether allegations of corruption influence polls has been debated endlessly with people voting out the allegedly corrupt only to bring them back the next time. This time too, graft charges failed to dent Pawar or Hooda. Pawar, in fact, shrewdly turned a courtdirected ED inquiry to fend off BJP’s aggressive designs

[edit] Details

Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

Oct 2019: The results of the by elections for some state assembly and Lok Sabha seats.
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

After the sweep comes the stumble. Just months after having decisively won the Lok Sabha elections with a decisive mandate, BJP turned in a notso-impressive performance.

It scored a less-than-emphatic victory in Maharashtra and fell short of the majority mark in Haryana, in an outcome that will reignite the debate over the effectiveness of its “nationalist” plank in state polls, enthuse opponents and can trigger an introspection on how to address issues arising from slowdown.

The party did not lose. In Maharashtra, where it had played second fiddle to Shiv Sena for decades, it defied incumbency to retain the CM post and its status as the number one player. In Haryana, a virgin territory until 2014, the party finished on top and can form government with the support of Independents. But the tallies fell short of the expectations aroused by its LS poll victory.

The vociferous insertion of national issues made the Maharashtra and Haryana polls more of a verdict on decisions of the Modi government than might have been the case despite the clear prominence of local and regional factors and caste equations associated with state contests.

[edit] By elections: NDA wons 26 out of 51, Cong 12

Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

BJP and its allies won 26 of the 51 assembly byelections in 18 states for which results were announced on Thursday, winning eight of the 11 contests in Uttar Pradesh but suffering setbacks in Gujarat and Bihar. Congress bagged 12 seats.

In the two Lok Sabha bypolls, NCP’s Shriniwas Dadasaheb Patil scored an upset win over BJP’s Udayanraje Pratapsinghmaharaj Bhonsle in Satara, Maharashtra, while Prince Raj of LJP, a nephew of Ram Vilas Paswan, defeated Congress’ Ashok Kumar in Samastipur (SC), Bihar.

The byelections marked the entry of BJP in the Sikkim assembly — where it won two of the three seats on offer — and that of AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, in Bihar.

In UP, NDA retained eight of the nine seats it held but SP was a major gainer, wresting a seat each from BJP and BSP, while retaining Rampur. In Gujarat, BJP conceded three of six seats to Congress. BJP’s Alpesh Thakor, who had defected from Congress, lost.

[edit] 8 ministers defeated in Maha, 7 in Haryana; turncoats lose

Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

Ministers and turncoats pulled NDA down in the battle to retain Maharashtra and Haryana.

Eight ministers of the Devendra Fadnavis government lost at the hustings, an embarrassment almost matched by the M L Khattar cabinet in Haryana that saw seven out of its nine BJP members biting the dust. Dimming the glow of returning to power in Maharashtra further was the electorate’s rejection of 11 prominent faces from the opposition camp that had crossed over to the BJP-Shiv Sena side just before the polls.

While it was expected that some of Fadnavis’s ministers would lose, the defeat of agriculture minister Anil Bonde was a big surprise, as was that of high-profile rural development minister Pankaja Munde, who lost to her cousin Dhananjay Munde by 31,000 votes.

The others included junior forest minister Parinay Fuke, employment guarantee minister Jaydutta Kshirsagar, who joined the Shiv Sena on the eve of the assembly elections, senior Sena leader and minister of state for textiles Arjun Khotkar, minister for marketing Ram Shinde, junior labour minister Bala Bhegde and MoS for water resources Vijay Shivtare.

Eleven of the 19 prominent turncoats who had switched allegiance to BJP were defeated, too. The list includes Udayanraje Bhosale from Satara, former minister Harshavardhan Patil, Vaibhav Pichad and Dilip Sopal.

In Haryana, the capitulation of ministers wasn’t the only setback to BJP. State party chief Subhash Barala suffered defeat at the hands of JJP’s Devender Babli by a margin of 52,302 votes, leaving him so disappointed that he left the counting hall midway and soon announced his resignation.

Only 2 netas in Khattar cabinet manage to clear the mark

Ministers Anil Vij from Ambala Cantonment and Banwari Lal from Bawal constituency were the only victorious ones for BJP. Khattar had 11 ministers in his cabinet, two of whom — Vipul Goel and Rao Narbir — were denied tickets.

The senior-most minister, Ram Bilas Sharma, who was in charge of education and tourism, lost to Rao Dan Singh, a loyalist of former Congress chief minister Bhupinder Hooda, by a margin of 9,240 votes.

The one outcome that dealt the biggest shock was the defeat of finance minister Capt Abhimanyu, seen by many as the most powerful in Khattar’s cabinet. Capt Abhimanyu lost to ex-BJP stalwart Ram Kumar Gautam of JJP by a margin of 12,029 votes.

BJP’s “farmer face”, agriculture minister Om Parkash Dhankar, lost to Kuldeep Vats in Badli by 11,245 votes. Manish Grover, a junior minister, was defeated by Hooda loyalist Bharat Bhushan Batra in Rohtak city. Three-time MLA and women and child development minister Kavita Jain, whose husband was media adviser to Khattar, couldn’t retain her seat either. Neither could three-time MLA and speaker Krishan Lal Panwar in Israna. Krishan Kumar Bedi, the minister from Shahbad, also lost, as did Karan Dev Kamboj by a small margin of 560 votes.

[edit] Art 370 as a poll issue

Akhilesh Singh, Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

BJP’s failure to retain the numbers it had won in Maharashtra and Haryana in 2014 has raised the question whether it became excessively dependent on the popularity of its Article 370 decision, reports Akhilesh Singh. In Haryana, seven ministers, the speaker and state party chief lost. In Maharashtra, BJP suffered an unexpected setback in Vidarbha, home base of Fadnavis and Gadkari. Young leader Pankaja Munde also lost, leading many in the party to question the effectiveness of “nationalist” themes in state contests.

[edit] BJP scores betters in NCR

Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

BJP performed better in Delhi’s neighbourhood than in the rest of Haryana, winning 14 of the 25 seats in NCR districts. This was three seats more than its 2014 score of 11 in NCR and accounted for more than a third of its final tally of 40 in the assembly polls.

Congress equalled its 2014 seat count of nine in NCR, including three seats in Mewat, where BJP’s strategy to field veterans like Zakir Hussain did not work. INLD slipped from four seats to nil in NCR and JJP failed to open its account.

But it was an independent who became the day’s talking point, winning a seat that senior BJP leader and cabinet minister Rao Narbir Singh held since 2014. Rakesh Daultabad, the man whose radio ads made his name a familiar one beyond Gurgaon’s borders, won Badshapur, Haryana’s largest constituency by voter numbers (3.6 lakh), by more than 10,000 votes. Badshapur is predominantly urban, includes many of Gurgaon’s new sectors and parts of Sohna Road, and had witnessed a vote boycott call before the elections over poor civic infrastructure and the government’s failure to relocate the toll plaza from Kherki Daula.

Daultabad’s campaign was based on “local connect”, something his opponent struggled with, especially BJP, which denied Narbir a ticket and fielded Manish Yadav, the party’s state youth wing president, in his place. That strategy appears to have backfired.

[edit] The winners

Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- the winners
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

See graphic:

Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- the winners

[edit] BJP dips in Vidarbha (Maha), Cong rises in Haryana

Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- BJP dips in Vidarbha (Maha), Cong rises in Haryana
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India

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Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- BJP dips in Vidarbha (Maha), Cong rises in Haryana

[edit] Parties in office in states

The map shows parties in office in the states, as in March 2019
From: March 11, 2019: The Times of India

See graphic

The map shows parties in office in the states, as in March 2019

[edit] Pre-election doles

Suchandana Gupta & Prabin Kalita , Sops shower: Gold for brides in Assam, jobless dole in MP, February 7, 2019: The Times of India

Welfare measures unveiled by the Centre and States before the 2019 general elections
From: Suchandana Gupta & Prabin Kalita , Sops shower: Gold for brides in Assam, jobless dole in MP, February 7, 2019: The Times of India

Scramble To Hand Out Goodies Ahead Of Polls

With elections looming, the political class seems to have its priorities sorted out: It’s politics over economics and voter over the exchequer. The Centre and states have been doling out sops — from farm loan waivers and income support for agriculturalists to unemployment doles and even gold.

In BJP-ruled Assam, finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma raised the bar by offering gold, estimated to cost Rs 38,000, for brides from families with annual income of less than Rs 5 lakh. He also promised “e-bikes” for all girls who secure first division in higher secondary examination and a one-time subsidy of Rs 50,000 on all education loans sanctioned during the current financial year.

MP is expected to announce a monthly unemployment allowance of Rs 4,000, going one step ahead of Rajasthan which promised Rs 3,000-3,500 a month.

MP govt to double pension for elderly

The Kamal Nath government in MP will also roll out a scheme guaranteeing 100 days of work for urban youth. Sources said the Congress regime will also double social security pension for elderly from Rs 300 to Rs 600. All three decisions were cleared by CM and finance department.

When it’s poll season, taxes are something that no finance minister wants to raise. Last Friday, the Centre offered 100% tax rebate for those earning up to Rs 5 lakh while offering concessions also to senior citizens and the middle class.

On Wednesday, Leftruled Kerala deferred its plan to levy a “flood cess” on GST. It had argued for the cess on the ground that the money thus mopped up would be used for repairing the damage caused by the calamity. There is no clarity whether the state would go ahead with its budget proposal until Lok Sabha elections are over.

The pre-poll gifts come ahead of the general elections, which are expected to be keenly contested, prompting politicians to woo voters with freebies that economists have frowned upon on the ground that they could adversely impact the already-strained exchequer.

[edit] Assembly elections, by-elections/ May

May 24, 2019: The Times of India

Jagan takes Andhra by storm, Naveen gets record 5th term

Jaganmohan Reddy's YSRCP sweeps Andhra, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD wins Odisha for a fifth time, and five-time Sikkim CM Pawan Kumar Chamling loses a cliffhanger.

Odisha: BJD beats anti-incumbency to win 28 seats and lead in 84 out of 146 seats, though BJP makes big gains in assembly (likely to win 23) and Lok Sabha polls. Naveen Patnaik lives to fight another day, becoming the third chief minister to get a 5th straight term, after West Bengal former CM Jyoti Basu and Sikkim’s Pawan Chamling.

Andhra Pradesh: Jaganmohan Reddy will replace Chandrababu Naidu as CM after winning 129 and leading in 21 out of 175 seats. Naidu’s TDP is virtually wiped out, and his national plans are in ruins. The way back will not be easy Arunachal Pradesh: BJP well on its way to retain office with a win in 60-seat assembly. Likely to form a government again under CM Pema Khandu.

TamilNadu:AIADMKsettowin nine out of 22 seats in which bypolls have been held, ensuring the Palaniswami government (123 out of 234 seats) can last its full term. Goa: BJP loses Parrikar’s Panjim constituency after 25 years to Atanasio Monserrate (Cong), wins 3 other bypolls West Bengal: In keeping with its gains in LS seats in the state, BJP is on its way to win 4 out of 8 bypoll seats, ahead of TMC (3) and Congress (1).

Sikkim: In a huge upset, CM Pawan Chamling’s SDF (part of NDA) loses. SKM leader Prem Tamang likely to be the new chief minister.

[edit] October elections: Five trends

May 23, 2021: The Times of India

Where NOTA got the highest % of votes in Maharashtra, 2019
From: May 23, 2021: The Times of India

Parties with victory margins greater than 50,000 votes in Maharashtra, 2019
From: May 23, 2021: The Times of India

Average assets on the rise, Maharashtra and Haryana, 2014-19
From: May 23, 2021: The Times of India

Haryana assembly polls seat tally, 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2019 Assembly polls
From: May 23, 2021: The Times of India

Haryana vote shares, party-wise- Assembly elections 2014, Lok Sabha elections 2019 and Assembly elections 2019
From: May 23, 2021: The Times of India

Maharashtra assembly polls seat tally, 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2019 Assembly polls
From: May 23, 2021: The Times of India

Maharashtra vote shares, party-wise- Assembly elections 2014, Lok Sabha elections 2019 and Assembly elections 2019
From: May 23, 2021: The Times of India

A record-breaking winner, votes for nobody, millionaire MLAs and other things you may not have known about this week's elections

While the election results in Maharashtra and Haryana have dominated the headlines, poll data from the two states along with byelections held in 51 seats across 18 states have thrown up some interesting trends. Here are some unique ones you should know about.

1. A new political star in Odisha?

Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) candidate, Rita Sahu, created electoral history by winning the Bijepur bypoll with a record margin of 97,990 votes— the highest-ever for an assembly segment in the state. Rita’s rival Sanat Gartia of BJP got only 37,967 votes.

The scale of Rita’s victory can be gauged from the fact that she polled more votes (1,35,957 ) than Naveen did in the April assembly polls (1,10,166). The chief minister’s victory margin was 57,000, a little over half of Rita’s. Patnaik vacated Bijepur for Hinjili, his traditional seat — after he won both seats in April — which necessitated the byelection.

Before this, the highest assembly seat victory margin in Odisha was 94,555, achieved by current Andhra Pradesh governor and BJP leader Biswa Bhusan Harichandan against the then Congress rival Jagannath Mohapatra in Bhubaneswar in 2000.

Forty-six-year-old Rita entered politics last year after the death of her husband, Subal Sahu, the then Congress MLA of Bijepur.

2. A record number of Indians voted for nobody  

The None of the Above (Nota) option appears to be gaining traction with voters. Nota got over 5% votes in five constituencies in Maharashtra. It was runner-up in Latur (Rural) and Palus Kadegaon assembly constituencies where Congress candidates Dhiraj Deshmukh and Vishwajeet Kadam emerged winners. In both the seats, Nota fetched 13.8% (27,449) and 10% (20,572) votes, respectively. The Shiv Sena was relegated to third place. BJP workers in both constituencies say they opted for Nota to protest the party’s move to swap seats with alliance partner Shiv Sena. Nearly 1.45 lakh Mumbaikars also expressed their frustration with the government. In Mumbai’s Borivali, Jogeshwari (East) and Palghar (ST) where Nota got 6.1%, 8.1% and 5.5% of the votes, respectively. Experts attribute this to anger over issues like the tree felling for a Metro car shed in Aarey Colony and the collapse of the Punjab & Maharashtra Cooperative Bank.

In both states, NOTA got more votes than what the Aam Aadmi Party could manage. In Haryana Nota’s vote share was 0.53% as compared to AAP’s 0.48% and in Maharashtra, Nota's 1.37% vote share beat AAP’s 0.11%.

3. Big victories got bigger in Maharashtra

In 45 seats, the margin of victory was over 50,000 votes. Of these, the BJP won 19, the Shiv Sena 9, NCP 11, Congress 4 and others 2. Former Maharashtra deputy chief minister and NCP leader Ajit Pawar won the Baramati assembly constituency by over 1.65 lakh votes — the highest victory margin recorded by a candidate this election.

4. New MLAs are 50% to 100% richer  

In Maharashtra, the average assets of the House rose to Rs 22.2 crore in 2019 compared with Rs 10.84 crore in 2014 — a 104% increase. The average assets of MLAs in Haryana stood at Rs 18.4 crore which was 41.8% more than the average of the House elected in 2014. The richest elected MLA in Maharashtra is Parag Shah from the BJP with total assets worth over Rs 500 crore.

5. From national to local in 4 months  

A closer look at how people voted in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the assembly polls clearly shows that people vote differently on national and local issues. While they may prefer a strong national leader like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at the state level, local issues and personalities take precedence.

In Lok Sabha polls, the saffron dominance was complete in Haryana, with the BJP winning all 10 seats. In comparison, the assembly election results were a mixed bag for the party.

BJP saw a drastic decline in its vote share in Haryana — from 58% in the Lok Sabha polls, the party’s vote share declined by 22% in the recently concluded state elections.

In Maharashtra, the NDA won 41 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats while the Congress managed just 5. Cut to assembly polls — the BJP-Shiv Sena combine won 161 seats, 24 less than 2014. Both NCP and Congress have made a comeback.

The party’s vote share was 27.59% in the Lok Sabha polls, which fell to 25.7% in the current assembly elections. The Shiv Sena which saw a rise in vote share in the Lok Sabha polls also witnessed a drop in the current polls.

There has clearly been a shift in how voters saw differentiated both parties in the national and the state election.

[edit] 2019 Dec

[edit] Congress in power in 7 states

Dec 23, 2019 Times of India

NEW DELHI: The victory of the JMM-Congress alliance in Jharkhand has come as a moral booster for opposition unity and for the grand old party seeking to become relevant again in Indian politics after suffering two successive defeats in general elections.

Party leaders feel that the BJP is not invincible and can be defeated if like-minded parties get together. This, they feel, has been proved right in some states and the experiment can be implemented in upcoming polls.

The poll results indicate that local and real issues of farm crisis, economy and unemployment have found more resonance at the ground and that bodes well for the opposition in future polls to win back states from the BJP.

The Jharkhand poll results also show that the caste equations against BJP are consolidating. A Congress leader said the BJP has lost the support of tribals by installing a non-tribal chief minister in the tribal dominated state.

Tough the Congress has returned to power in seven states with the latest victory in Jharkhand, its last two successes have come primarily with the support of allies.

While Congress is in power in the states of Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Puducherry on its own, it has come to power in Maharashtra and Jharkhand jointly with the support of its allies Shiv Sena and NCP and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.

Party leaders feel the latest victory in Jharkhand is a lesson taught by the people of the state to the "arrogance" of the BJP and its leadership. Some feel it is also the defeat of BJP's "corruption".

They feel the alliance of like-minded parties in some states can bring opposition unity in states and oust the BJP from power.

Congress leader and incharge for Jharkhand affairs, RPN Singh said the Congress and the alliance leaders raised the local issues of unemployment, farm distress, economic distress and increased debts and these issues touched the people of Jharkhand, who came out in favour of the alliance.

"We raised the issues of Jharkhand which are also the issues of the people of India. Unemployment, farm distress, economic crisis and rising debts, starvation deaths are issues that touched the people of Jharkhand. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah tried to divert and distract from the real issues but that failed to cut ice with the common people," Singh told PTI.

On opposition unity, he said it worked out well on the ground as workers of the alliance partners performed unitedly at all levels that gave good results.

"The opposition unity and better coordination can be replicated in other state elections too and this will give positive results," he said.

Party leaders feel the opposition needs to work closely and grab power in states through better coordination in state elections.

With Jharkhand joining the growing list of states slipping out of BJP's rule, the party now governs mere 35 per cent of the country's landmass in comparison to over 71 per cent during its peak in 2017 when it was in power in the entire Hindi-speaking heartland.

Its string of losses in states despite the massive victory in the April-May Lok Sabha elections may force the party's top brass to revisit its strategy for the assembly polls as it prepares for the upcoming battles in Delhi and Bihar.

[edit] Performance of BJP, state-wise

Dec 23, 2019 Times of India

NEW DELHI: With Jharkhand joining the growing list of states slipping out of BJP's rule, the party now governs mere 35 per cent of the country's landmass in comparison to over 71 per cent during its peak in 2017 when it was in power in the entire Hindi-speaking heartland.

Its string of losses in states despite the massive victory in the April-May Lok Sabha elections may force the party's top brass to revisit its strategy for the assembly polls as it prepares for the upcoming battles in Delhi and Bihar. The percentage of population being governed by the BJP in the states, either on its own or with its allies, now stands at around 43 per cent from over 69 per cent two years back, data analysis show.

What may be of more concern to the party is that its graph in state polls has been on a steady decline since 2018 when it lost its bastions of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh besides Rajasthan, and its huge victory in the Lok Sabha elections this year has not translated into gains in states.

Political watchers believe that the BJP may have to reconsider its tactic of backing leaders from non-dominant communities in assembly elections, as consolidation of Jat, Maratha and tribal votes against it is seen to be one of the reasons behind its below par performance in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand respectively.

Opposition parties did much better than expected in Haryana and Maharashtra, even though the BJP emerged as the single largest party in both the states even while losing many seats compared to its previous tally.

The party joined hands with rival Jannayak Janata Party to form the government in Haryana but was outsmarted in Maharashtra by the rival Congress-NCP alliance which joined hands with longtime BJP ally Shiv Sena to come to power at the saffron party's expense.

If the Haryana and Maharashtra results gave the BJP something to cling to, its defeat in Jharkhand was absolute as for the first time since the state's formation the party has not emerged as the single largest party.

The BJP always emerged as the single largest party in Jharkhand, once jointly with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).

Its face and incumbent chief minister Raghubar Das also appeared headed to defeat to BJP rebel Saryu Roy.

In all three state which have gone to the polls since Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the BJP to a landslide win in the general election, the party's vote share has fallen by big margins compared to the Lok Sabha polls.

The saffron party's vote share was more than 55 per cent in Jharkhand and 58 per cent in Haryana in the Lok Sabha elections. However, it slumped to 33 per cent and 36 per cent respectively in the assembly polls in these two states, held barely a few months after the general elections.

Significantly, the party has suffered losses in states at a time when it has been successful in fulfilling its longstanding ideological promises, including nullifying Article 370, criminalising the practice of triple talaq and enacting Citizenship Amendment Act.

The Supreme Court's verdict in favour of building a Ram Temple in Ayodhaya was also a big boost to the BJP.

Top party leaders in election rallies spoke at length about these "achievements" under the Modi government but the voting returns have been less than what they might have expected.

[edit] 2019-23

The performance of the NDA and INDIA alliances in all assembly elections held between 2019 and 2023
From: March 17, 2024: The Times of India

See graphic:

The performance of the ND A and INDIA alliances in all assembly elections held between 2019 and 2023

[edit] 2021

[edit] Highlights

May 3, 2021: The Times of India

In the 1990s, regional parties chipped away at Congress’s hold on power, with the United Front government marking the high point of the process, vastly enhancing the clout they first wielded during the V P Singh-led coalition, propped up from outside by BJP and Left Front. They were part of the power equation when Congress-led UPA held office and have proved resilient even after PM Modi won back-to-back Lok Sabha majorities.

States along the east coast present an unbroken line of non-BJP, non-Congress parties who have successfully held office, repeatedly winning elections. The success of Mamata Banerjee and M K Stalin is part of this picture with Pinarayi Vijayan adding to the score in this round of polls. CPM, after its marginalisation in the rest of the country, looks more like a regional formation now.

The most watched contest was Bengal where the scale of TMC’s win has buried BJP’s hopes. In Stalin, DMK has found a new icon and a successor to M Karunanidhi. Vijayan’s dominance over Kerala and his party is sealed with the win as several seniors will no longer pose a challenge to him. Elsewhere, the MVA government in Maharashtra is led by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, a regional entity.

BJP yet to find success formula for south & east

Held together with the aim to keep BJP out of office in Maharashtra, MVA is a serious hurdle for the saffron party. MVA constituent NCP, for all practical purposes, is also a party limited to the state. NDA’s preponderance has denied RJD power in Bihar but neighbouring Jharkhand has a JMMled government.

The scenario changes when it comes to national polls, with Modi proving to be a strong vote aggregator. BJP has made gains in Odisha but BJD has not been swept away.

In 2019 LS polls, DMK dominated Tamil Nadu and Sunday’s result can be seen as a continuation of that trend. YSRCP and TRS have done well in Lok Sabha polls too.

The south and eastin particular present challenges to BJP even though it continues to gain in vote share and legislative strength.

BJP surprised Mamata by winning 18 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, but she has now struck back.

[edit] B

May 3, 2021: The Times of India

This round of assembly elections had many firsts, not the least among them being Mamata Banerjee emerging as the first female CM of a major state to win a third successive term in office.

While she did that in part by completely decimating the Left and Congress – a blank slate for them in Bengal being another first – the Left chalked up its own first by winning a second successive term in Kerala and that too with an even bigger win than five years ago, 99 seats compared to 91.

[edit] Losers and winners

BJP matched its highest-ever tally in Tamil Nadu of four seats and skyrocketed from just three assembly seats to 77 in West Bengal, but sunk back to no seats in Kerala, a state where it had hoped to emerge as a significant third force.

In a year in which Covid has hogged the headlines, it is telling that health minister K K Shailaja or Shailaja Teacher as she is popularly known, had the highest margin in Kerala of nearly 61,000 votes with CM Pinarayi Vijayan (incidentally the oldest of the CMs in this round) a distant second on this count.

In a contest that was so one-sided in Bengal, it is a measure of BJP’s social engineering efforts that in the 84 reserved seats, the party almost equalled Trinamool Congress’s (TMC’s) tally winning 41 and losing 43 to TMC.

The Bengal poll results also meant that the state has lived up to its reputation of giving a party or front a long rope. Congress governed for the first two decades after Independence, the Left for over three decades and now Mamata Banerjee is guaranteed at least 15 years in office.

[edit] Voter schism

Swapan Dasgupta / BJP owes both Assam win and Bengal defeat to voter schism / May 15, 2021/ The Times of India

…It is important to flag some of the issues arising from the verdicts in West Bengal and Assam where incumbent governments were re-elected with conclusive majorities. These are likely to have a significant bearing on the region’s future.

The striking feature of the voting behaviour in Bengal and Assam was the deepening sectarian fault lines. In both states, the electorate was sharply polarised along Hindu-Muslim lines. The schism may not be so apparent at the macro level. In Assam, for example, the BJP-led coalition secured 44.5% votes while the Congress-led Mahajot that included Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF, Bodoland People’s Front and the Left parties was narrowly behind with 43.3%. In Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s AITC was ahead of the BJP by a comfortable 9.8%— 47.9 % to 38.1.

These statistics may prompt a facile conclusion that both sides in Assam and Mamata in Bengal transcended religious identity and that bread-and-butter concerns prevailed. However, a disaggregated reading of the results — as gleaned from the authoritative CSDS-Lokniti surveys — tells a different story.

The sectarian schism is most vivid in Bengal. Mamata may have won an emphatic victory over the BJP and obliterated the Left Front and Congress but her triumph owes almost entirely to the solid support she received from the state’s Muslim community. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the AITC secured 70% of all Muslim votes, and this rose to 75% this election. Since Muslims comprise an estimated 30% of the state’s population, with an estimated voter turnout of three per cent above the state average, Mamata’s over-dependence on the minority community for her big victory is obvious.

The contrast with how Hindus in Bengal voted last month is instructive. CSDS-Lokniti estimated that 50% of Hindu voters preferred the BJP and only 39% sided with Mamata. Although the choice of the BJP by Hindu voters fell from the high of 57% in 2019, the party led decisively over the AITC among Dalits and Backward Castes, and less conclusively among Adivasis. The BJP’s lead over Mamata was narrowest among upper caste Hindus, indicating that the ‘secular’ misgivings over the BJP are largely a bhadralok phenomenon. In other sections of Hindu society, a subaltern Hindutva has developed roots.

In Assam, where the Muslim population was 34.2% in 2011, 81% of the community voted for the Congress-led Mahajot. The NDA secured 11% support in the Muslim community. This included a quarter of Assamese-speaking Muslims. The Bengali-speaking Muslims — the main target of the past anti-foreigner movements — were rock solid in supporting the Mahajot.

The quantum of Muslim support for the Mahajot in Assam and Mamata in Bengal was nearly the same. What made the critical difference in Assam was the bigger Hindu consolidation. The CSDS-Lokniti findings suggest that as much as 67% of all Hindus in Assam sided with the BJP-led alliance; the Mahajot secured only 19% support, a steep fall from the 32% that supported the Congress in 2016. The support for the BJP was quite marked among Bengali-speaking Hindus, mainly in the Barak Valley. As much as 74% of this community supported the BJP, not least on account of the Citizenship Amendment Act…

(Dasgupta was a BJP candidate in the Bengal elections)

[edit] 2017-22

[edit] 2019-21: electoral verdicts

Areeba Falak, May 31, 2021: The Times of India

NEW DELHI: On May 30, 2019, Narendra Modi took oath as India’s Prime Minister to serve a second consecutive term in office. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections saw the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance decimate the opposition in several parts of the country.

The BJP not only bettered its 2014 performance but also created a record by winning a majority on its own.

The first two years of the Modi 2.0 government has seen the BJP successfully divide the opposition to get the support of important regional parties for key legislation in Parliament.

While Congress continues to struggle to get its act together and make any meaningful impact, it is the regional leaders who are now leading the fight against the BJP.

Here’s a look at the status of opposition parties in the last two years.

Congress

Congress is the largest constituent party of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). However, it has lost every state election since 2019 barring the ones where it contested as a minority partner by forging regional alliances.

The only states where Congress could make a comeback in assembly polls are Maharashtra and Jharkhand. But in both these states, it is the junior partner of regional allies.

In Maharashtra, Congress joined hands with its ideological opponent the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to form the government.

In Jharkhand, Congress allied with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) to form a coalition government.

In Tamil Nadu, the Congress managed to piggyback on the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which scripted an impressive win to return to power.

In West Bengal, the Congress, which aligned with the Left, drew a blank and was completely uprooted in a high-pitched battle between the TMC and the BJP.

In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), failed to defeat the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) despite the state's history of alternating between the two fronts.

In Assam, the Congress-led an alliance of eight parties called ‘Mahajot’ but failed to unseat the BJP-led NDA government, which won a second consecutive term in the state.

In Puducherry, the Congress-led UPA government lost twice since 2019. First, the Congress-DMK government lost the trust vote in 2020 and then in 2021 elections, conceded the state to NDA.

Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)

In the 2019 general elections, DMK was the only party in the UPA alliance that single-handedly reduced the footprint of NDA’s partners in the Lok Sabha elections.

The DMK won 24 of 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, a massive jump from zero seats it won in 2014.

In the 2021 assembly election, DMK registered a landslide victory after spending a decade as the largest opposition party in the state assembly.

In addition to Tamil Nadu, the DMK also increased its tally in 2021 Puducherry assembly election from two to six.

Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party

The SP and BSP, who were long-term rivals in Uttar Pradesh, came together to form a ‘Maha’-gathbandhan ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to take on the BJP. However, a dismal performance in the general election and failure to dent the BJP in UP put an end to the short-lived alliance.

Since then, both parties have failed to make much of a mark. Outside UP, the SP won two seats in the 2019 Maharashtra assembly election. It joined the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government led by the Shiv Sena.

Other than Maharashtra, the UP-based SP has not managed any victory in any other assembly election since 2019.

However, ahead of assembly elections next year in UP, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party has performed very well in the three-tiered panchayat polls held in May 2020.

The panchayat polls are not fought on party symbols, however, SP-backed candidates won on more than 1,000 seats compared to the BJP which could register wins in only 800 seats.

Since 2019, the BSP contested in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Delhi assembly elections. However, it didn’t win a single seat in any of these states.

In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, the BSP contested on 80 seats and won one seat with a 1.5 per cent vote share. In the UP panchayat elections, the BSP won only a little over 300 seats.

Trinamool Congress (TMC)

The Mamata Banerjee-led TMC scripted history in Bengal as she defeated a very determined and aggressive BJP in the just-concluded assembly elections. The BJP used its full might to unseat Mamata, but failed. While the BJP has made huge inroads in the state winning over 70 seats, Mamata has emerged as one of the strongest regional leaders.

Mamta’s latest victory in her home state has perhaps further added to her credentials to lead an anti-BJP front in the 2024 general elections.

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)

Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is the undefeated champion of Delhi, having convincingly defeated the BJP.

The AAP won 62 of 70 seats in the 2020 assembly elections with a vote share of 53. 5 per cent.

This makes AAP one of the few regional bigwigs who have been able to hold onto their home turf against the BJP.

However, its performance in the Lok Sabha elections has been disappointing.

Left Front

While the presence of the Left parties in the country is on the decline, the CPM, one of the leading constituents of the Left Front, led by Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala scripted history by defeating the Congress-led UDF to retain power.

The CPM not just defeated the Congress, but also countered an aggressive BJP challenge in Kerala.

The only other state where Left parties are part of the government is Tamil Nadu where several Centre-Left leaning parties formed the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) under DMK’s leadership.

In West Bengal, the Left Front suffered one of its worst defeats in the 2021 assembly elections after failing to win even a single seat.

Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS)

In the 2019 general election, TRS had contested all 17 Lok Sabha seats and could win only nine, two seats less than its 2014 tally.

Whereas, the BJP, which did not form any alliance in the state, won four seats on its own. The BJP’s gain in the 2019 LS election was a setback for the TRS as BJP was not even in opposition to TRS in the 2018 assembly elections.

However, in urban local body polls concluded in April 2021, the pink party swept all municipal corporations with Congress coming second and BJP stood a distant third.

The TRS won 181 of the 248 divisions and wards in two municipal corporations and five municipalities.

Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP)

The Andhra Pradesh-based party has been on a winning spree for the past two years.

The YSR Congress swept the 2019 general election in Andhra, the 2019 Andhra Pradesh assembly election and the 2021 Andhra Pradesh urban local body elections.

The 10-year-old party was founded by YS Jaganmohan Reddy after he broke away from the Congress party.

Strengthening its hold on the state, the YSR Congress also swept the urban local bodies in 2021 by winning in all 12 municipal corporations and 54/55 municipal councils.

Biju Janata Dal (BJD)

The Odisha-based BJD is a regional party that does not subscribe to any political ideology and has cited the development of Odisha as its primary goal.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Naveen Patnaik-led party saw a significant reduction in its seat share. It managed to win just 12 out of the 21 seats in 2019. In 2014, it had won 20.

The party, however, managed to hold on to power in the assembly elections that were held simultaneously.

Moreover, its vote share remained consistent in both general and assembly elections

Now, both the BJP and BJD have their eyes set on the panchayat polls scheduled in 2022. The BJP is planning to build on its 2019 successes while the BJD is planning to use its development poll plank.

[edit] 2017-22: Regional parties hold their own, BJP gains ground, Cong losses mount

March 20, 2022: The Times of India

Party-wise seats won in the four rounds of state assembly polls, 2017-22
From: March 20, 2022: The Times of India

Over the last four cycles of assembly elections spread over two decades, BJP has made significant gains in both seats and vote share while the Congress, Left and BSP – the other three big political forces at the beginning of this period – have lost ground.

 Others as a group have not just held their own, but gained a little in seats, a TOI analysis shows. That also means the combined tally of BJP and Congress at 2,064 is only a little higher than all the others together at 1,961.

 The analysis revealed in terms of seats, BJP went a little down from 906 MLAs country-wide to 851 (excluding J&K) between the fi rst two cycles — 2002-2007 and 2007-2012. But since then it has made huge gains to touch 1,318 in the 2012-17 round and 1,314 in 2017-22, much of the gains coming in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, and the North-east.

 The Congress meanwhile rose from 1,092 in 2002-07 to 1,192 in 2007-12, but then dropped sharply to 842 in 2012-17 and 750 in 2017-22, its losses mirroring the BJP’s gains in Maharashtra, the North-East and West Bengal.

 The Left, which had over 400 seats in the 2002-07 cycle, has fallen steadily from 201 to 168 and then 122, thanks to its demise in West Bengal and Tripura. Similarly, BSP has shrunk from 226 to 102 to 31 and a mere 16 in the last cycle.  

The rest as a group have gained too from 1,400 in 2002-07 to 1,823 in 2017-22 with the increase driven mainly by two young parties – AAP and YSRCP – and the Trinamool.

 Vote shares understandably have not changed as dramatically, though BJP has upped its share from around 18% to just over 29% while the Congress share has dropped from 25% to just over 18%. The most precipitous drops have been for Left and BSP, the former down from 7. 8% in 2002-07 to just 2. 6% now and the latter from 6% to 3. 1%. Again, all others put together have gained slightly and account for nearly half (46. 9%) the votes polled. Within this group, there are parties that gain at each other’s expense from one election to the next, like DMK and AIADMK or YSRCP and TDP, but they tend not to lose ground to one of the national parties.

[edit] 2022

[edit] States' elections: The results

March 11, 2022: The Times of India

The results of the elections held in 2022 for the legislative assemblies of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh.
From: March 11, 2022: The Times of India

See graphic:

The results of the elections held in 2022 for the legislative assemblies of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh.

Five years of double incumbency; memories of adevastating pandemic that killed and displaced thousands, dented growth, worsened the already-serious challenge of unemployment and triggered inflation;and an awkward retreat after a bruising confrontation with farmers. The odds could not have been loaded more adversely. Yet, PM Modi managed to defy them to lead BJP to a resounding 4:1 victory, in a performance that again attested to his appeal as the saffron talis- man and underlined BJP’s domination of Indian politics. On a day when Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP steamrolled its opponents to score a landslide win in Punjab, smashing the stubborn historical barrier that has hitherto restricted regional parties to their home ground, it was the BJP-led Modi that dwarfed the field elsewhere, its pre-eminence stamped starker than ever before. Thursday’s results mark an emphatic confirmation of BJP’s status as the frontrunner and undercut the narrati- ve that had gained ground, in the aftermath of the Bengal debacle, about Modi’s diminished ability to swing elections other than for the Centre. They also affirm the success of the effort to turn the party into a pro-poor platform with goodwill among large sections of women, as well as of the experiment to use transparent and efficient delivery of welfare schemes to dilute caste identities and subsume them into the larger Hindutva fold. UP now seems to have been transformed into the second Hindutva laboratory after Gujarat, though the state’s giant size is an obvious point of difference. Home to 80 Lok Sabha seats, it played a significant role in Modi’s back-to back LS majorities and the BJP’s success this time would naturally be reassuring to the party in the long run-up to the 2024 national elections.

While BJP may have lost some seats compared with its overwhelming majority in 2019, it’s worth remembering that this is the first time in 70 years that a CM has returned to office. It bulldozed its way past the SP-RLD combine, which enjoyed the backing of the ‘farmer leaders’.

[edit] DECODING THE VERDICT

1 BJP’s second consecutive win in Uttar Pradesh carries an important message from the heartland — that the appeal of caste and minority mobilisation is fading. In a largely bipolar race, SP more than doubled its seats but hit a glass ceiling. On the other hand, BJP’s Hindutva Plus incorporates aspirations of OBCs and Dalits drawn to its cultural vision and development-welfare platform 2 Women voters mark their presence as a decisive force, seen to have backed BJP in UP and Uttarakhand. The higher turnout in the later phases of the UP polls seems to have beneﬁted BJP and factors like better law & order got a big thumbs-up from women in a state where maﬁa and goonda raj have often been the norm 3 Beneﬁciaries of welfare schemes rolled out by the Centre and BJPgoverned states have created a new and loyal vote bank that cuts across caste, reaching many middle-caste and Dalit homesteads. Free ration, cooking gas under Ujjwala, housing assistance, scholarships, transfers to farmer accounts and pensions have created a strong following 4 Lack of a cohesive alternative to BJP and PM Modi becomes more apparent as the party recovers from the 2021 West Bengal poll setback. Success in forming majority governments in the so-called swing states of Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur gives BJP an additional edge, accentuated by leadership tussles in the opposition and decline in the ability of Congress and the Gandhis to garner votes 5 Success in all states, barring Punjab, should give Modi government renewed energy to pursue reforms after having had to back down on the farm laws. May also give India greater clout to deal with foreign policy challenges as well as in negotiation of trade pacts

[edit] The winners

March 11, 2022: The Times of India

MODI

Emerges as the colossus who can still help swing tough elections in BJP’s favour. His popularity was a major factor in the party’s big win in the powerhouse of UP, where he rebuffed an attempt to dest abilise Yogi, and also in Uttarakhand. He plunged into the campaign in Manipur, and helped BJP score a hat-trick in Goa. The accomplishments look all the more striking because they were achieved against the backdrop of the pandemic, a lacerating farmers’ agitation, and rising inflation. They put him in good stead for the coming contests in Gujarat and HP, besides giving him the reassurance to move forward on his agenda, and the political capital to deal with the challenges thrown up by the Ukraine crisis and the lurking threats of the virus and inflation.

YOGI ADITYANATH

Yogi becomes the first CM of UP since 1952 to retain office after a full term — that too with a thumping majority — and joins the top tier of the saffron pantheon. Unlike five years ago, when he was a peripheral figure confined to Gorakhpur and adjoining districts and was put in the CM’s chair by Modi and Amit Shah, this election, to a very large extent, had turned into a referendum on his performance and personality, which together represent a powerful cocktail of hardline Hindutva, efficient delivery of welfare schemes, personal integrity and ‘tough’ crime control. He was already popular among Hindutva votaries outside UP. This victory has elevated him immensely

AMIT SHAH

The architect of the 2017 win, who had also masterminded the 2014 and 2019 saffron sweep of LS polls in the state, played a crucial role again. His outreach to Jats and frequent interventions helped stabilise nerves after a spate of highprofile defections, and made up for the organisational listlessness that threatened to undercut the gains from the goodwill for Modi-Yogi. His trademark micro-management and tireless energy were factors in the party’s performance in Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa as well ARVIND KEJRIWAL

His appeal and promise of the ‘Delhi Model’ was the key factor in AAP’s massive win in Punjab. Unlike in Delhi, his party gets a full state, one which comes with police powers, to govern. The breakthrough makes AAP the first regional party to govern two states (DMK has been part of coalition governments in the tiny Union territory of Puducherry). That he pulled off the feat within a decade of AAP’s launch will galvanise his effort to cast himself as the national challenger to BJP, at the declining Congress’s cost

BHAGWANT SINGH MANN

There was nothing comical about the claim that the former ‘laughter challenge’ star made for being projected as AAP’s chief minister candidate in Punjab. The timing was perfect. Congress’s decision to switch to Charanjit Singh Channi, a Dalit, at the expense of Jat Sikhs has enhanced his importance as a member of the dominant community. The boldness paid off because of AAP’s need for a strong local face, clearing the way for him to take over as the first non-Congress, non-Akali CM in the state

N BIREN SINGH

The footballer who in his playing days won big tournaments has now captured a big trophy in the political arena as well. It is the first time in Manipur that a non-Congress government has retained office and with bigger numbers. The victory achieved under him should ensure political stability in this restive corner of India, besides helping BJP amplify the message of its overwhelming dominance over Congress

PRAMOD SAWANT

Survived the damage wrought by Covid, sabotage and dissension to help BJP hold on to enough numbers to make a bid for office despite Congress’s recovery. If his appointment as CM in the wake of Manohar Parrikar’s death looked fortuitous, the strong likelihood of his continuing in office looks a deserved reward from a party that had gambled on him. He has now come out of Parrikar’s shadow Illustrations: Ajit Ninan & Arya Praharaj

[edit] The losers

March 11, 2022: The Times of India

Five years of double incumbency; memories of adevastating pandemic that killed and displaced thousands, dented growth, worsened the already-serious challenge of unemployment and triggered inflation;and an awkward retreat after a bruising confrontation with farmers. The odds could not have been loaded more adversely. Yet, PM Modi managed to defy them to lead BJP to a resounding 4:1 victory, in a performance that again attested to his appeal as the saffron talis- man and underlined BJP’s domination of Indian politics. On a day when Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP steamrolled its opponents to score a landslide win in Punjab, smashing the stubborn historical barrier that has hitherto restricted regional parties to their home ground, it was the BJP-led Modi that dwarfed the field elsewhere, its pre-eminence stamped starker than ever before. Thursday’s results mark an emphatic confirmation of BJP’s status as the frontrunner and undercut the narrati- ve that had gained ground, in the aftermath of the Bengal debacle, about Modi’s diminished ability to swing elections other than for the Centre. They also affirm the success of the effort to turn the party into a pro-poor platform with goodwill among large sections of women, as well as of the experiment to use transparent and efficient delivery of welfare schemes to dilute caste identities and subsume them into the larger Hindutva fold. UP now seems to have been transformed into the second Hindutva laboratory after Gujarat, though the state’s giant size is an obvious point of difference. Home to 80 Lok Sabha seats, it played a significant role in Modi’s back-to back LS majorities and the BJP’s success this time would naturally be reassuring to the party in the long run-up to the 2024 national elections.

While BJP may have lost some seats compared with its overwhelming majority in 2019, it’s worth remembering that this is the first time in 70 years that a CM has returned to office. It bulldozed its way past the SP-RLD combine, which enjoyed the backing of the ‘farmer leaders’.

[edit] DECODING THE VERDICT

1 BJP’s second consecutive win in Uttar Pradesh carries an important message from the heartland — that the appeal of caste and minority mobilisation is fading. In a largely bipolar race, SP more than doubled its seats but hit a glass ceiling. On the other hand, BJP’s Hindutva Plus incorporates aspirations of OBCs and Dalits drawn to its cultural vision and development-welfare platform

2 Women voters mark their presence as a decisive force, seen to have backed BJP in UP and Uttarakhand. The higher turnout in the later phases of the UP polls seems to have beneﬁted BJP and factors like better law & order got a big thumbs-up from women in a state where maﬁa and goonda raj have often been the norm

3 Beneﬁciaries of welfare schemes rolled out by the Centre and BJPgoverned states have created a new and loyal vote bank that cuts across caste, reaching many middle-caste and Dalit homesteads. Free ration, cooking gas under Ujjwala, housing assistance, scholarships, transfers to farmer accounts and pensions have created a strong following

4 Lack of a cohesive alternative to BJP and PM Modi becomes more apparent as the party recovers from the 2021 West Bengal poll setback. Success in forming majority governments in the so-called swing states of Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur gives BJP an additional edge, accentuated by leadership tussles in the opposition and decline in the ability of Congress and the Gandhis to garner votes

5 Success in all states, barring Punjab, should give Modi government renewed energy to pursue reforms after having had to back down on the farm laws. May also give India greater clout to deal with foreign policy challenges as well as in negotiation of trade pacts

[edit] 2023

[edit] The elections of May

[edit] Briefly

Karnataka: the Congress won the state assembly elections

Meghalaya, Sohiong: UDP, United Democratic Party won the seat in the assembly

Odisha, Jharsuguda: The BJD retained the assembly seat defeating BJP

Punjab: Jalandhar: the Aam Aadmi Party won the parliamentary seat, defeating the Congress which had held the seat for 24 years

Uttar Pradesh: Apna Dal S defeated Samajwadi Party for the assembly seat of Suar in Rampur

Uttar Pradesh: the BJP won all 17 mayoral elections an improved its tally in other local bodies elections.

[edit] The BJP and South India

May 14, 2023: The Times of India

The BJP and South India, Political history, 2015- 23
From: May 14, 2023: The Times of India

In a crucial year packed with assembly elections, BJP and its allies managed to maintain their hold in the three North-Eastern states that voted in February but the saffron party’s juggernaut was halted in Karnataka, the only major southern state where it was in ofﬁce. Of the ﬁve states left to vote this year, BJP is in ofﬁce in Madhya Pradesh and runs Mizoram with ally MNF whereas in 2017 it was running Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh as well on its own. A look at the changing power balance across India since 2015

[edit] The Elections of November

[edit] BJP Wins 3 states, Congress 1, Mizoram Elects ZNP

Liz Mathew, Dec 4, 2023: The Indian Express

Riding on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and his guarantees blending welfare politics and development with Hindutva, the BJP Sunday swept the Hindi heartland in key state elections, returning to power in Madhya Pradesh at the head of a landslide and ousting the ruling Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. It also announced its arrival in Telangana where the Congress toppled the ruling BRS.

The emphatic wins in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where leader after leader credited Modi for the party’s impressive showing, also raise questions about the leadership of the Congress, especially Rahul Gandhi, and the role they seek in the Opposition INDIA bloc to take on the BJP and Modi. There are already rumblings within the alliance over how the Congress chose to go solo in the state elections, and the outcome Sunday will only add to the grievances of others in the bloc.

Although the Congress has seized Telangana, the BJP has made its presence felt and is positioning itself as a key player in the southern state – BJP’s Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy defeated BRS chief and Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao and state Congress chief A Revanth Reddy, a frontrunner for the post of the next CM, in the Kamareddy constituency.

The BJP vote share has gone up from 7 per cent to 14 per cent. Standing before a party banner thanking Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana, Modi too made special mention of Telangana and, at one point, even spoke in Telugu. “Over the last few years, this support has only been increasing and this trend will continue in the times to come. Our bond with Telangana is unbreakable and we will keep working for the people. I also appreciate the industrious efforts of each and every BJP karyakarta,” he said.

“This is a historic, unprecedented victory. Today, the sentiment that the development of the states will lead to development of Bharat has won,” Modi said.

In a post on X, he said, “We bow to the Janata Janardan”.

The morale boost and the energy that these results provide, a BJP leader said, will be a springboard for forays into states identified for inroads in the countdown to the Lok Sabha polls.

Senior BJP leader P Muralidhar Rao, party in-charge of Madhya Pradesh where it made a stunning comeback, told The Indian Express: “In this election, the BJP has once again proved to be a day-to-day functioning party. The BJP is visible, it’s moving on the ground while the Congress is absent there. The Congress debacle has not only weakened the Opposition INDIA bloc, it has enhanced the power of the BJP. The Modi brand has become unquestionable while Rahul Gandhi is weakened.”

While the acceptance and popularity of Modi as a strong leader remain the biggest strength of the BJP, its organisational strength, the goodwill created by welfare schemes initiated by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh and the guarantees announced by the party in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and the Hindutva plank have paid off.

BJP leaders also pointed out that women voters, a section that has become a major factor in the BJP’s electoral strategies, and the regained trust among tribals, a significant factor in the three heartland states, have contributed to its electoral performance.

In his victory speech, Modi said: “Every poor person, every deprived person, every farmer, every tribal is thinking he has won today. Every woman is seeing her own victory. Every young person, every citizen is seeing this as a personal success.” Countering the Opposition move to frame the 2024 battle around caste census, Modi repeated his poll campaign line that he recognises only four castes: the poor, youth, women and farmers are the biggest castes for him, and only the uplift of these four will make the country developed.

In the Assembly elections, the Congress banked heavily on a slew of promised guarantees while the BJP countered it with “Modi ki guarantee”. And this message was amplified again on the dais at the BJP headquarters where Modi spoke after the results Sunday. “Sapne nahni, haqeeqat bunte hain, tabhi toh sabh Modi ko chunte hein (He weaves realities not dreams, that’s why everyone chooses Modi)” – that was the line on the banner behind him.

According to BJP leaders, the strong push from the party came in the four weeks before the voting on November 17. “It was almost like a surgical strike, but with our organisational strength and mobilisation capacity,” said a BJP leader who was involved with the election planning in Madhya Pradesh.

Party sources pointed out that while Modi led the campaign in Madhya Pradesh, Union Home Minister Amit Shah took control of electioneering at the ground level.

“In the last few weeks, we laid out our political strategies and micro-management to get the karyakartas to fight this election and snatch the win from the Congress, which was already celebrating the edge it had,” said another senior leader involved with the party strategy.

The party central leadership’s move to field several high-profile leaders and MPs — including Union Ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste — and party general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya also worked.

In Rajasthan, while Modi and his popularity remained its most significant weapon in its arsenal, the BJP’s campaign against what it called “appeasement politics” of the Ashok Gehlot government appeared to have helped the party in a state where over 90% of the population is Hindu. If there was lack of clarity about its own state leadership, it countered it with a campaign on the deepening differences between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot.

In Chhattisgarh, despite the lacklustre approach of its state unit in the last five years, the party appeared to have been ready for a “decent” performance. What likely kept the BJP in contention here was the slew of promises it made just days ahead of the first phase of polling on November 7, including cooking gas cylinders at Rs 500 for poor families and Rs 12,000 per year financial assistance to married women. BJP leaders said there was “an instant positive reaction” to the promises.

Now that the results are in, the BJP central leadership is expected to choose Chief Ministers in consultation with the elected members in the respective states. However, it is unlikely to ignore either Chouhan or Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan while choosing the leader, sources said.

Both Chouhan and Raje remain popular leaders and they have significant support among the party candidates who have won, the sources said.

[edit] Winners and losers

BIG WINNERS

NARENDRA MODI | Modi was the face of BJP’s campaign with the party not declaring its CM names for MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. ‘MP Ke Mann Mein Modi’, the central theme in Madhya Pradesh, became the plank elsewhere as the party tried to leverage his popularity to get past obstacles of an unambitious unit in Chhattisgarh, fear of anti-incumbency in MP, and leaders who did little groundwork to back up their personal ambitions in Rajasthan, besides Congress’s ‘populist’ and ‘caste’ planks

AMIT SHAH | Wins in MP and Chhattisgarh conﬁrm the ‘master strategist’ tag that he earned after scripting BJP’s sweep of UP in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. He chose the two states instead of Rajasthan, which has traditionally ousted the party in ofﬁce. The victories, especially in Chhattisgarh, can be attributed to his shrewd planning, morale boosting and stern ‘party comes ﬁrst’ message to self-obsessed local notables. His success removes any doubt as to who will run BJP’s 2024 Lok Sabha campaign

SHIVRAJ SINGH CHOUHAN | BJP didn’t name him as its CM face in MP, but he remained at the centre of the party’s narrative about the state’s transformation into an agricultural powerhouse with decent infrastructure. He got the PM’s endorsement as a ‘lokpriya and karmath (popular and diligent)’ CM. His initiatives like ‘ladli behna’ and the resultant popularity among women were important factors in the victory. The result is a blow to his rivals in the party and might keep him in the CM’s chair, a prospect that had almost been ruled out

REVANTH REDDY | Since the day he was appointed Telangana Congress chief, the slim, trim and aggressive Reddy stayed focused on targeting CM KCR and predicted BRS’s ouster. His outreach throughout the state boosted Congress, though his unilateral style threatened fragmentation in the party. The AICC intervened in time and a chastened Reddy disciplined himself while other leaders were accommodated in organisational roles

J P NADDA | He assigned himself Rajasthan, where, the revolving-door pattern notwithstanding, BJP faced a challenge because of factional rivalries and Ashok Gehlot’s vigorous populism. He ensured the malcontents did not start mutinies and squabbles did not result in sabotage. The defeat of some of the senior lights and victory of rebels illustrate the enormity of the task he faced

VASUNDHARA RAJE | The two-time CM didn’t give up when the BJP brass projected a ‘collective leadership’ model instead of making her the CM face. Impressive turnouts at her rallies showed she is the most popular Rajasthan BJP leader, strengthening her claim to a third stint as CM. However, her aloofness during Congress’s entire term, and inability to come to terms with the new BJP leadership and take people along, could go against her

JYOTIRADITYA SCINDIA | Responsible for the fall of the Kamal Nath government in 2020, Scindia can gloat over the party’s performance in the Gwalior-Chambal region as most of the Congress MLAs there had joined the saffron fold with him. Coming after Priyanka Gandhi’s dig about his height, the result may taste even sweeter. He is seen as a candidate for the CM’s post because he is relatively young and his appointment would be a taunt to the Gandhis, to whose inner circle he once belonged

BIG LOSERS

BHUPESH BAGHEL | An aggressive politician and OBC face, Baghel ensured that Congress was connected to the ground through his ﬁve years at the helm and made farmers a big part of his voter outreach. But his tenure was marred by a power struggle with colleague TS Singh Deo, and the Centre’s allegations of corruption bothered him during his last two years. His conﬁdence in his own strategy and the party’s chances pre-empted any fresh thinking, and Congress ended with a poor showing in Chhattisgarh

KCR | The man who exhumed the Telangana statehood demand, and turned it into political capital, ﬁnally fell to hubris. Insulated from the ground after a decade in ofﬁce, the Telangana CM erred in repeating his army of MLAs, and the perception that he was a BJP ally went against him. While he marginalised civil society, which had powered his rise, Congress successfully caricatured his term as rule by a ‘gang of four’

KAMAL NATH/DIGVIJAYA SINGH | A Delhi player, Nath stayed put in Bhopal after the 2020 coup that toppled his government, and micromanaged Congress’s Madhya Pradesh campaign. But insiders say he was overbearing, didn’t give prominence to other leaders, and was not relentless in his campaigning. His banking on anti-incumbency to win, refusing to accept the revamped party strategy of candidate selection, and not using the designated pollster, proved disastrous. Singh was the nuts-and-bolts man of the organisation, but his clashes with Nath created the impression of a disjointed campaign. His complacency and frozen ideas about candidates and strategy revealed a lack of touch with new realities

ASHOK GEHLOT | Long dubbed ‘jaadugar (wizard)’, the Congress leader promised to buck Rajasthan’s tradition of ousting governments every ﬁve years. His exhaustive campaign for the last one year, promise of ‘mehengai rahat’ and ‘7 guarantees’ sought to blunt anti-incumbency and BJP’s communal push. They didn’t win him the match but staved off a rout. Gehlot’s insistence on repeating sitting MLAs will come in for serious scrutiny in the party, especially when Congress came this far in the otherwise lost battle

RAHUL GANDHI/PRIYANKA GANDHI VADRA | After sitting out Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, Rahul returned to the campaign trail in Karnataka where his voter outreach complemented the local Congress satraps and delivered a massive win. Rahul and Priyanka were Congress’s lead campaigners in this round of polls, adding weight to the party’s populist promises by targeting PM Modi over inﬂation and unemployment, and alleged patronage of the Adani group, while also promoting Rahul’s new ‘caste census’ theme. The siblings addressed dozens of rallies, but failed to bring dividends they were conﬁdent about. The result raises doubts about the effectiveness of Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, which was widely credited for the Karnataka victory

SACHIN PILOT | The young Congress leader turned from resentful rebel to champion campaigner as he toured his stronghold of eastern Rajasthan and other seats to shore up Congress’s fortunes. Though Pilot was also in demand in other election-bound states, particularly MP, all eyes were on whether he could deliver Gujjar and youth votes, besides other demographics. In the ﬁnal analysis, he couldn’t

[edit] Tribal parties

Jayprakash S Naidu, Vibha B Madhava, Srishti Kapoor, Dec 5, 2023: The Indian Express

Assembly Election Results 2023 Highlights: Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee president A Revanth Reddy will be the next Chief Minister of the southern state as party President Mallikarjun Kharge Tuesday appointed him as the leader of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP). The decision came following a meeting of the top party leadership, days after the Congress defeated the BRS by bagging 64 seats in the southern state. Revanth was appointed the TPCC chief in June 2021. Since then, he has been strengthening his image as a combative Opposition leader and has been credited with the party’s victory.

In Mizoram, after Zoramthanga People’s Movement (ZPM)’s victory, the new government is set to be sworn in on December 8. Former IPS officer Lalduhoma is set to become the new Chief Minister of the state. The 73-year-old who won his election from the constituency of Sercchip by 2,982 votes will be the state’s first new CM in three decades.

Meanwhile, with three resounding wins, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s next task is to decide on the three chief ministers for Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The big question remains whether the central leadership will repeat Shivraj Singh Chouhan — who beat the purported “fatigue factor” to win the elections for the BJP. In Rajasthan, veteran leader Vasundhara Raje, too, is eyeing another term. There have also been suggestions that the party could shift Raman Singh, Chouhan and Raje to the Centre to effect a complete generation shift in the state units, The Indian Express had reported.

[edit] By elections

Cong loses Nagaland bypoll to regional party

Dimapur : Nagaland’s governing Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) won on Sunday a bypoll to the Tapi assembly constituency, reports Bhadra Gogoi. In a two-cornered contest, NDPP’s Wangpang Konyak beat Congress’s Wanglem Konyak by over 5,300 votes. The bypoll was held on November 7 after the death of previous Tapi MLA, NDPP’s Noke Wangnao. CM Neiphiu Rio congratulated Wangpang, NDPP workers and supporters.

[edit] Seats that changed parties

Seats that changed parties, MP, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, 2023
From: Dec 5, 2023: The Times of India

See graphic:

Seats that changed parties, MP, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, 2023

As many as 337 of the 638 seats that polled in these four states saw the party that won last time losing now. While the bulk of the changes obviously went in favour of the party that won the state, not all did. Here’s how the swapping worked. The shaded ( ) cells indicate the seats retained.

[edit] Number of MLAs

[edit] 2021

Number of MLAs in state assemblies: UP, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu
From: Jan 12, 2022: The Times of India

See graphic:

Number of MLAs in state assemblies: UP, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu

[edit] Sittings of assemblies, per year

[edit] 1952- 2023

Oct 10, 2023: The Indian Express

[edit] Madhya Pradesh

Number of sittings in Madhya Pradesh Assembly
From: Harikishan Sharma, Oct 10, 2023: The Indian Express

The data shows that Madhya Pradesh’s current Assembly, which is its 15th, has held only 79 sittings — the second-lowest since 1956-’57, when the state’s first Assembly was elected. The state’s first Assembly had a very short lifespan, having met for only 16 days. The 11th Assembly (1998-2003) saw the highest number of sittings at 288. However, since then, there has been a considerable decline in the number of sittings.

[edit] Rajasthan

Number of sittings in Rajasthan Assembly
From: Harikishan Sharma, Oct 10, 2023: The Indian Express

Rajasthan’s current Assembly, its 15th, has held 147 sittings — the highest since the eighth Assembly (1985-1990). However, it is lower than all the earlier Assemblies before that, except the sixth (1977-1980) that met for 115 days. The lowest number of sittings (95) was recorded by the ninth Assembly (1990-1992) as the House was dissolved before it completed its term. The second Assembly (1957-1962) saw the most sittings at 306.

[edit] Chhattisgarh

Number of sittings in Chhattisgarh Assembly
From: Harikishan Sharma, Oct 10, 2023: The Indian Express

Chhattisgarh was carved out of Madhya Pradesh in 2000. Of the five Assemblies since then, the current Assembly (2019-2024) has seen the lowest number of sittings at 116. The highest number of sittings, at 182, was held by the second Assembly during 2003-2008.

[edit] Telangana

Number of sittings in Telangana Assembly
From: Harikishan Sharma, Oct 10, 2023: The Indian Express

The Telangana Assembly is the newest among the five poll-bound states. Since its formation on June 2, 2014, when it was carved out of Andhra Pradesh, the state has seen only two Assemblies. The first Assembly held 127 sittings during 2014-2019. However, the figure came down to 75 during the current Assembly.

[edit] 2012 > 2021

Average sittings of state assemblies, per year- 2012> 2021
From: February 17, 2022: The Times of India

See graphic:

Average sittings of state assemblies, per year: 2012 > 2021

[edit] Socio-economic composition

[edit] 2021: Assam, Kerala, TN, WB

The wealth, median age and gender of the MLAs of Assam, Kerala, TN, WB, as in 2021 May
From: May 4, 2021: The Times of India

The level of education of the MLAs of Assam, Kerala, TN, WB, as in 2021 May
From: May 4, 2021: The Times of India

See graphics:

The wealth, median age and gender of the MLAs of Assam, Kerala, TN, WB, as in 2021 May

The level of education of the MLAs of Assam, Kerala, TN, WB, as in 2021 May

[edit] Workload: assemblies vis-à-vis the parliament

[edit] 2003-13

Missing in action

Nalin Mehta, The Times of India Jan 08 2015

Parliament is logjammed but real democratic problem is in state legislatures which meet much less

Explaining the need for promulgating ordinan ces for reforms in insur ance and coal block allo cations, finance minister Arun Jaitley blamed the stand-off in Rajya Sabha, arguing that the country cannot wait if one of the houses of Parliament “waits indefinitely“.At a time when the opposition dominated Upper House has become a fail-safe vantage point for ambushing the Modi government and images of protesting MPs storming the well of the House have come to symbolise Parliament as much as anything else it is commonplace to blame Delhi's broken and churlish politics for legislative deadlock.

Yet, step away from the miasma of daily headlines and it is clear that the real problem of Indian governance lies not in Delhi but in the states. For a decade, 2003-13, Lok Sabha met for an average of 68 days per year (18.6% of each year). That might seem low but in contrast, in the same period, Delhi assembly met only for an average of 21 days (5.7%), Goa 26 days (7.1%), Bihar 31 days (8.4%), Himachal Pradesh 31 days and Haryana assembly for a shocking 13 days per year (3.5%).

In the absence of any legal requirement for minimum sittings of Parliament or state assemblies except that no more than six months should elapse between successive sessions they have all evolved their own working standards. In fact, Parliamentary Research Service data show that in the last five years Parliament improved marginally, with average Lok Sabha sittings going up to 71 days per year (2009-13). In the same period, state assemblies like Haryana actually dropped average annual sittings to an abysmal 11! Overall, among states for which data is available, only Kerala's Niyama Sabha with an average of 50 sittings, West Bengal assembly with 46, Maharashtra with 41 and Tamil Nadu (2011-14) with an average of 38 annual assembly sittings came even within sniffing distance of Parliament but fell well short of it. Chhattisgarh and Gujarat with an average of 32 days each per year, Madhya Pradesh 30, Rajasthan and Assam with 24 days each (in 2014) make up the middle rung in this report card.

Purely in terms of simply meeting for legislative work even the bestperforming state assemblies physically do only about 50-70% of work done by Parliament, the middle rung ones about 40% and the laggards less than 30%. This is much less than what successive conferences of legislative presiding officers have recommended in the past.

Constitutional expert and former Lok Sabha secretary general Subhash Kashyap points out that repeated recommendations seeking a minimum of 120 sittings a year for each legislature have been ignored and respective governments continue to decide how much business to provide to legislative houses and how many days they will sit.

How much does this matter? There is a direct co-relation between legislative transparency and governance. It is surely no coincidence that Punjab is the only Indian state whose assembly does not have a fully-functioning website, that it met for less than an annual average of 20 days in recent years and its total outstanding debt crossed Rs 1 lakh crore in 2013-14. Irrespective of their output, the better state assemblies like Kerala and Maharashtra transparently provide details on every minute of business, just as Parliament does. This is an essential watchdog function whose absence is detrimental to good governance.

What about quality of discussion and debate? Here again Parliament does far better than states. During the years when Haryana's then-Congress government was reeling under charges of favouritism towards Robert Vadra, the state assembly's performance is instructive. Between 2011-13 Haryana passed 121 Bills, a whopping 56% without any discussion in the assembly, 6% with less than five minutes of discussion and only 5% were discussed for more than 20 minutes.

Except for finance and appropriation Bills, this kind of lack of scrutiny is par for the course in several states. Surprisingly , Bihar does well. Its assembly discussed each of the 21 Bills that it passed in 2013 for an average of 39 minutes.But this pales in comparison with Parliament where, despite all its failings, average time spent on discussing each Bill is upwards of three hours.

We may be the world's largest democracy but Parliament still fares poorly on international norms. Britain's Parliament met for 162 days in 2013-14. India's Parliament has also not passed a single private member's Bill an important indicator of MPs' independence from party lines since 1970. Current protections to coverage of parliamentary proceedings, for example, come from one such private member's Bill chaperoned by Feroze Gandhi in 1956.

Paradoxically, the state of Indian state assemblies is quite similar to state legislatures in United States which also has a federal system. Since the 1980s, American state legislatures have gradually reduced annual sittings. Some like South Dakota have limited such sittings to only a maximum of 40 a year.

Ambedkar famously argued in the Constituent Assembly that, “If things go wrong under the new Constitution, the reason will not be that we had a bad Constitution. What we will have to say is that Man was vile.“With the fulcrum of governance shifting to states, the time has come to set minimum standard of legislative accountability in India.

[edit] 2011 to 2016: MLAs work much less than MPs

Vishwa Mohan, MLAs across state assemblies work for fewer days than MPs: Study, November 14, 2018: The Times of India

File:Average sitting days in a year, MLAs and MPs- 2011 to 2016.jpg

500px

MLAs across all assemblies work much lesser number of days in a year than MPs and the performance of elected representatives in smaller states is even worse.

PRS Legislative Research in its analysis of 26 states\UT from 2011 to 2016 has found that these assemblies sat on an average only for 28 days in a year — an indication of elected representatives’ low preference for discussing matters of public importance inside their respective Houses.

Majority of the sitting days were budget session days. The budget session is significant due to tabling and passing of annual budget and demand for grants for all ministries. Analysis of sixyear data of state\UT assemblies shows that only 50% of the assemblies (13 out of 26) had sat on an average for 28 days or more with Kerala (46 days), Karnataka (46), Maharashtra (45) and Odisha (42) figuring among the top.

Rajasthan, Jharkhand, UP, West Bengal and Haryana were among 13 assemblies which sat for even less than 28 days in a year with Nagaland, Delhi and Sikkim figuring at the bottom of the list.

Comparatively, parliamentarians (MPs in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha) sat for more number of days during 2011-16. Lok Sabha MPs on average sat for 70 days in a year while their counterparts in Rajya Sabha sat for 69 days in a year. In case of Parliament too, the budget session was longer than other sessions — monsoon and winter.

Number of sitting days for Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Punjab, Tripura and Puducherry (UT) during 2011-16 period could not be analysed due to insufficient data for these five assemblies on their websites.

The data, released on Tuesday, shows that the current assembly in MP sat for 135 days in five years during 2014-18 as compared to 167 days in previous assembly during 2009-13. The current Chhattisgarh assembly sat for 145 days in five years (2014-18) as compared to 159 days in previous assembly during 2009-13.

Legislative Assemblies: India

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+Indpaedia has a separate page about assembly elections in every state.
+The current page, [[Legislative Assemblies: India]], covers:
+i) the all-India picture, and
+ii) 'mini-general elections', when elections were held simultaneously for the assemblies of more than one state.
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+[[Category:India|L LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+[[Category:Politics|L LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+=Election results, trends: involving more than one state=
+Indpaedia has a separate page about assembly elections in every state.
+The current page, [[Legislative Assemblies: India]], covers:
+i) the all-India picture, and
+ii) 'mini-general elections', when elections were held simultaneously for the assemblies of more than one state.
+==Population and geography ruled by political parties, 1961-2021==
+[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indias-changing-political-colours/articleshow/82080778.cms  ''The Times of India'']
+[[File: Population ruled by political parties in India, 1961-2016.jpg|Population ruled by political parties, 1961-2016; <br/> [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=02_02_2017_008_016_001&type=P&artUrl=POPULATION-RULED-BY-POLITICAL-PARTIES-02022017008016&eid=31808 The Times of India], Feb 2, 2017|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Geography ruled by political parties.jpg|Geography ruled by political parties; <br/> [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=02_02_2017_008_016_001&type=P&artUrl=POPULATION-RULED-BY-POLITICAL-PARTIES-02022017008016&eid=31808 The Times of India], Feb 2, 2017|frame|500px]]
+[[File: States ruled by Congress, BJP, Left and others, 2021.jpg|States ruled by Congress, BJP, Left and others, 2021 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indias-changing-political-colours/articleshow/82080778.cms  ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphics'''
+''Population ruled by political parties, 1961-2016''
+''Geography ruled by political parties''
+''States ruled by Congress, BJP, Left and others, 2021''
+'''1961: Blues on song'''
+Indian National Congress ruled the vast majority of the country, with 95% of its population under chief ministers from the grand old party
+'''1971: Emergency effect'''
+Congress’s popular support began to wane in the mid-1970s. The Emergency declared by PM Indira Gandhi in 1975 ended with the Congress losing its grip on power at the Centre for the first time after the 1977 Lok Sabha elections
+'''1981: Status quo'''
+After a brief interlude, Congress was back and remained the party to beat in the dramatic decade that saw the birth of BJP at its beginning and ended with Mandal protests as the 90s took off
+'''1991: Rise of the regional power'''
+From having 80% of India’s population under its chief ministers, Congress was reduced to 26%. Meanwhile, regional parties went national and their rising appeal saw the population under their governments jump from 8% to 49% in a decade. BJP took two big states: Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
+'''2001: Lotus bloom'''
+The count of states under BJP rule shot up from 4 to 11. Share of population in BJP-ruled states almost doubled, from 13% to 25%
+'''2011: One-man show'''
+The decade began with Congress in power in 18 states and UTs, but soon everything changed. Riding on Narendra Modi’s popularity, BJP notched landslide victories across North, East and West India
+'''2021'''
+States like Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh that had gone to BJP returned to the Congress camp and the party also joined the ruling alliance in Maharashtra. But all the North-Eastern states are now saffron. And with alliances, BJP rules in 24 out of 36 states/UTs, that is, two-thirds of the country.
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1
+]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+===2008, 2013===
+[[File: 2008, 2013- How the people voted in the legislative assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Telangana.jpg|2008, 2013: How the people voted in the legislative assembly elections in <br/>Chhattisgarh <br/>  Madhya Pradesh <br/> Mizoram <br/> Rajasthan, and <br/> Telangana <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F10%2F07&entity=Ar00601&sk=155AD618&mode=image  October 7, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+''2008, 2013: How the people voted in the legislative assembly elections in <br/>Chhattisgarh <br/>  Madhya Pradesh <br/> Mizoram <br/> Rajasthan, and <br/> Telangana''
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1
+]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+==2011-2016: changing political landscape==
+[[File: The changing political landscape in Indian states, 2011-16.jpg| The changing political landscape in Indian states, 2011-16; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=20_05_2016_012_004_011&type=P&artUrl=All-India-Clobbered-Committee-20052016012004&eid=31808 ''The Times of India''], May 20, 2016|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, reserves seats, 2011 and 2016.jpg|Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal: how the various political parties fared in reserved seats, in seats with a significant Muslim vote and in the tea plantations, in the 2011 and 2016 elections to the state legislative assemblies; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=20_05_2016_014_028_002&type=P&artUrl=COMMUNITY-REPORT-20052016014028&eid=31808 ''The Times of India''], May 20, 2016|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphics''':
+''The changing political landscape in Indian states, 2011-16''
+''Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal: how the various political parties fared in reserved seats, in seats with a significant Muslim vote and in the tea plantations, in the 2011 and 2016 elections to the state legislative assemblies''
+==1993==
+===The post-Babri ‘mini-general election’===
+[https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/cover-story/story/19931215-assembly-polls-bjp-attributes-losses-to-all-other-parties-unfairly-ganging-up-against-them-811930-1993-12-14     INDERJIT BADHWAR with Zafar Agha / Assembly polls: BJP attributes losses to all other parties unfairly ganging up against them/ India Today / Dec 15, 1993]
+'' Madhya Pradesh: The Congress(I) won comfortably with 173 seats''
+[Nov 1993]'s mini-general election …virtually coincided with the anniversary of the December 6 Babri Masjid demolition and the concomitant deluge of violence.
+But a year later, in the political denouement to that fateful event, the iconography was neither bloody, nor vengeful nor characterised by any ineluctable, jackbooted march of religious bigotry. The prevailing images were those of serenity in which a quiet and peaceful political transformation took most politicians by surprise.
+The recurring metaphor for this election was ''' "referendum" -'''  the direct approval or disapproval by a majority of a limited issue. ''' The term was used ad infinitum by BJP leaders. '''
+Party President L.K. Advani and Kalyan Singh, the folk hero of the Babri Masjid demolition, had repeatedly intoned that the people's verdict in the state polls would vindicate the act.
+In flourishes of electoral rhetoric, Kalyan Singh stated that ''' if the BJP got even one seat less than the 221 it held in Uttar Pradesh -'''  "cultural nationalism" - it would be tantamount to rejection of the mandir movement. ''' The party got 44 fewer seats.bb  Far short of forming the Government.
+The pace, the tone, the idiom and the reference point for these elections had been set by the BJP. Party leaders had exhorted audiences to decide whether the December incident was an exhibition of "national shame" or an act of "national pride", marking the beginning of the "largest national movement" in history, as the BJP's Ayodhya white paper put it.
+The poll was also to be the day of the people's judgement on ''' the dismissal of the BJP's four state governments. ''' '' Aaj chaar pradesh, kal sara desh '' (Victory in four states today, the rest of the country tomorrow), was the slogan.
+it was strange indeed to see the party resile from its public postures. Having ''' lost in Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh and faring badly in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. '''
+BJP leaders denied that they had ever called the elections a referendum. Then in the strangest twist of all, their national leaders even attributed their losses to all the other parties unfairly ganging up against them.
+This spoke volumes about the BJP's position. For this was a party that had advocated "ganging up" against the Congress(I) in 1989 when it allied with V.P. Singh and the Left. And then, after it began to gain steam on its own, it prided itself on its uniqueness and isolation in which it stood out as the sole representative of the Hindus against a hostile secular world.
+Whatever the combination of caste and local issues, they worked this time in their own way to checkmate the Hindutva millenarians who had propagated the gospel that their brand of cultural nationalism would steamroller all differences between castes and regions.
+In the rural areas particularly, there was a noticeable swing away from extremism on account of three elements: a late-dawning but increasing common-sense perception that Ram should not be exploited for political purposes (the demolition of the mosque, the wiping out of the "irritant" had already weakened the old appeal): a gradual fear that the violence that rocked Bombay was counterproductive to economic betterment and jobs: and the fear that communal rioting ultimately strengthens what the villagers despise the most: the local police forces.
+And this time the Muslims did nothing to help the BJP. They openly rejected the mullahs and the fatwas and made sure that fundamentalist fortresses like Aligarh and Moradabad remained free of shows of Muslim communalism that irritate ordinary Hindus.
+They waited instead to strike, not through separatist leaders, but through the system. And while in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh they reluctantly chose the Congress(I), in Uttar Pradesh they chose Mulayam Singh Yadav.
+And you can't ignore numbers when they stare you right in the face. Among Uttar Pradesh's voters, for example, Harijans constitute about 21 per cent. Yadavs over 17 per cent, and Muslims nearly 19 per cent. Together it's a winning combination. But numbers alone do not win elections. A leader has to enunciate a clear theme, and Mulayam's brand of anti-BJPism was evocative.
+Even though V.P. Singh in 1989 awakened the political tastebuds of the backwards through his Mandal and anti-corruption cocktail, the full potential of the combine that ultimately benefited Mulayam remained unused because V.P. Singh had played the role of OBC champion and the Harijans stayed mostly with the Congress(I) and the Muslims divided their votes.
+Even the OBCs did not unify solidly behind V.P. Singh because the leadership of the movement remained in the hands of upper caste Thakurs and Jats. In 1991, when Hindutva occupied the commanding heights of politics, the Janata Dal was badly divided and the OBC and even Harijan voters shifted their allegiance from traditional bases to the BJP.
+For the first time the Dalits, taking a cue from the Yadavs began sensing the power that comes from having your own party rather than riding on the coat-tails of the Congress(I), and they swung towards Kanshi Ram.
+This was a potent combination that the Muslims could ignore only at their peril if they wanted a Hindu alliance to defeat the BJP. And this time they did not break rank.
+And in any case, the election verdict is a mixed bag for political parties. The Congress(I) showed the potential of reviving itself if charismatic leaders enunciate a clear and forceful line as they did in Madhya Pradesh.
+V.P. Singh may take solace in his Mandal mantra but his party is in a shambles. Its vote banks have deserted it. Its leaders are confused.
+And the disappearance of this third force from national politics could lay the groundwork for a final confrontation at the Centre between the Congress(I) and the BJP.
+-
+====Congress(I): A Badly Needed Reprieve====
+By Zafar Agha
+Prime Minister Narasimha Rao: Finally, he has something to wave about
+Though they did not say so, Congressmen were profoundly relieved to discover that the party had performed much better than many of them had dared to hope.
+The BJP had managed to convey such an impression of strength that some sections of the Congress(I) had been psychologically intimidated. The final results exorcised that fear when ''' desperately desired victories came in Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
+While in Rajasthan the Congress(I) could have done better if it had not been beset by factionalism,'''  Madhya Pradesh showed that when leaders like Arjun Singh, Scindia, Kamal Nath and the Shuklas united to tackle the BJP in a determined fashion, it could win votes.
+Secondly, there are still some disgruntled elements who would prefer to have a more dynamic leader than Rao. Union Minister of State P.R. Kumaramangalam fired the first salvo, demanding the resignation of the entire CWC.
+But this was before the Madhya Pradesh verdict was known. The results there came as a godsend for Narasimha Rao, vindicating his decision to dismiss the four BJP governments and demonstrating to his detractors that, despite their anxieties about his vote-winning abilities, the party had put up a creditable show.
+Which was why Rao curtly told Kumaramangalam to resign.
+One significant consequence is that Rao can now press ahead with his economic reforms. Commerce Minister Pranab Mukherjee said after the Madhya Pradesh victory: "It is an endorsement of our policies.
+====Bharatiya Janata Party: Charting a New Course====
+By Yubaraj Ghimire
+L.K. Advani: Why isn't the party line working?
+For L.K. Advani and the BJP, it is not only seats that have been lost in these elections but also a precious momentum. Not to mention loss of face.
+From the time of the BJP-sponsored bandh in February [1993] to the Janadesh yatras undertaken by four top leaders to mark the start of the election campaign, it was intent on declaring that it was the only party on the move.
+Perched on a self-proclaimed higher moral ground, the BJP warned that the four state elections were merely a precursor of things to come and their victory would finally rob Rao of any excuse to continue in power.
+Eventually, none of that came to pass. ''' In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP registered just 33 per cent of the vote,'''  a mere 2 per cent increase over its 1991 figure and despite a record 55 per cent turnout this time.
+Having climbed from two Lok Sabha seats in 1984 to 88 in 1989 and then 119 in 1991 using the Ram card, the BJP saw no reason to scale down its Ram rhetoric in Uttar Pradesh, especially since ''' these were the first elections after the demolition.bb
+Though the leadership did try to diversify, one senior R SS leader explained the failure by saying: "The BJP cannot change tack so fast because it takes a long time for the R SS to recommend any change."
+This is why, despite instructions to hawks like Murli Manohar Joshi and Uma Bharati not to be too rabid, the party still ended up harping on the old themes.
+Yet, none of this worked as well as it had in the past. For one thing, non-BJP parties confronted the BJP head-on over the demolition issue. Joshi, for one, may now argue that the party should have pushed a more militant line but with A.B. Vajpayee unlikely to endorse any anti-Advani move and Joshi still considered the most unpopular of the trio, Advani will probably have the final say in any policy changes.
+''' The BJP appears to have learnt it cannot continue as a single issue party and still hope to grow '''
+His enemies within the party, however, are already saying that only six months after he took over as president the party has suffered a severe setback. Joshi will be joined by others who will demand a return to militant Hinduism.
+It might have worked once but wouldn't for ever. Also, Hindu militancy might be harder to resuscitate in Uttar Pradesh given the SP-BSP alliance, although party leaders hope the alliance will crack up due to caste tensions between the Yadavs and Dalits.
+The BJP will be quick to chart a fresh strategy. It appears to have learnt the lesson that the name of Ram will not keep conjuring up the votes it needs and that it cannot continue as a single issue party if it hopes to make more headway.
+"From Ram mandir, we should turn to Ram Rajya based on concrete socio-economic policies," said K.N. Govindacharya, party general secretary.
+A pointer to its future stand is that it intends to adopt policies designed to win over the Dalits and backward castes even if it means diluting its previous opinions, fashioned by upper caste Hindus.
+"A reverse in a couple of states does not worry us." said one national executive member. "But more and more backwards and SCs whom we consider to be Hindus leaving the Hindutva fold certainly does."
+====Janata Dal: Swallowing a Bitter Pill====
+By Javed M. Ansari
+V.P. Singh: Lying down and rolling with the punches
+''' Deserted by its vote banks and reduced to a mere regional grouping, the Janata Dal is a spent force today. '''
+For the Janata Dal, the results from Uttar Pradesh have been a draught of bitter irony. While the party had long ploughed a lonely furrow on its twin planks of social justice and secularism, it is the SP-BSP combine that has reaped the benefits.
+The Janata Dal has had to countenance the loss of its vote bank of Muslims, SCs/STs and the backwards to the alliance and finds itself reduced from its position as the main opposition - it won 91 seats in 1991 - to a minor player, locked in battle with the Congress(I) to spare itself the humiliation of also-ran status.
+In fact, of the four main parties in Uttar Pradesh, it was the Janata Dal which garnered the smallest percentage of votes. It got a paltry 13 per cent, compared to the SP-BSP's 33 per cent, the BJP's 33 and the Congress(I)'s 20.
+More galling yet, in the fight for the minority vote, while the alliance got 55 per cent and the Congress(I) 21 per cent, the Janata Dal was left with just 15 per cent. This, despite the Delhi Shahi Imam's fatwa in its favour.
+The party's dismal fate was sealed when the BSP's Kanshi Ram took his SC-ST votes to Mulayam Singh. It did not take the Muslims long to realise that the duo would be the safest bet to defeat the BJP.
+Moreover, the party did not have a leader of Mulayam Singh's stature to project as chief minister. And after V.P. Singh's withdrawal from the campaign due to ill-health coupled with the party's perennial insolvency, the Janata Dal campaign ran aground in the last crucial week.
+The virtual rout in the crucial state has reduced the party to a regional grouping.
+"In today's political environment, there is little justification for the Janata Dal's existence," says party leader Ramakrishna Hegde.
+In Rajasthan, it frittered away the Jat vote thanks to the infighting between Jat chieftains 0.P. Chautala and Ajit Singh.
+And in Himachal Pradesh, where the Janata Dal was never a strong force, the results confirmed its nonexistent position and the fact that the state has adopted a two-party system with the BJP and Congress(I) ruling alternately.
+The Janata Dal hardly had a strategy. Even the euphoria over the pre-poll unity of the various factions evaporated as Devi Lal, Chautala and Yashwant Sinha deserted the fold. The pro-Mandal lobby led by Laloo Yadav and Sharad Yadav took a strident line, while Hegde, George Fernandes and Biju Patnaik pressed for a more broad-based policy. "We can't survive as a single issue party," said Fernandes.
+There is every reason to suspect that leaders who came together only recently will go their separate ways. Ajit Singh is already feeling uneasy with the polarisation between the SP-BSP alliance and the BJP on caste and communal lines. "Most of my supporters have gone to the BJP," he admits.
+While the party plans its next move, the leaders still do not see eye to eye. Laloo Yadav wants the party to support a BSP-SP government in Uttar Pradesh to keep the BJP out, but Ajit Singh thinks otherwise - there's no love lost between him and Mulayam Singh.
+But the biggest question is about the leaders themselves. Ajit Singh's men have been humbled in his dens of Baghpat. Barnala and Sardana. In Chandra Shekhar's citadel, Ballia, the party failed to win a single seat. And V.P. Singh's hometown, Manda went to the BSP.
+Indeed, the outcome of these polls could not have come at a worse time for V.P. Singh. His health is failing and his party is in disarray. Within the Janata Dal, the forces and the individuals he nurtured have begun to turn their backs on him.
+And here's the irony: having given his all to the OBCs, V.P. Singh now finds himself labelled an upper caste leader. Scoffed a senior partyman: "You cannot talk of social justice and be an upper caste leader."
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
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+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1
+]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Government|L LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|L LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+[[Category:Politics|L LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+[[Category:Government|L LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|L LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+[[Category:Politics|L LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA
+LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLIES: INDIA]]
+==2012-16: `Others' got more seats than BJP + Cong in 30 polls==
+[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Others-got-more-seats-than-BJP--Cong-21052016001044 ''The Times of India''], May 21 2016
+That BJP has gradually replaced Congress as the dominant party in Indian politics and that recent assembly polls have accelerated that trend is obvious, but the reality is that between them, the two national parties have won less than half the seats and votes polled in the latest assembly polls in 28 states (excluding Telangana, which was part of Andhra Pradesh when the last elections were held there) and two union territories, Delhi and Puducherry .
+In these 30 elections dating from 2012 and including the fi ve just concluded, a total of 4,117 seats were up for grabs.BJP has secured a decisive lead over Congress by winning 1,051 of them against the latter's 871. That makes a combi ned total of 1,922 seats. But all other parties put together have won 2,195 seats, or more than half the total. Seat tallies can be a mis leading indicator of po litical dominance. This is not only because a party can get a lot of votes but hardly any seats in the first past the post system, but also because an MLA in, say, Sikkim, represents a much smaller population than one in Uttar Pradesh but both count as one in the tally.
+A better indicator, therefore, is how many votes each party has won. Here again, BJP's combined tally of 12.6 crore votes from the 30 polls beats the Congress' 11.8 crore, even if the gap seems crore, even if the gap seems much smaller than in the seats. Again, though, the rest with 33.5 crore votes comfortably beat the combined tally of the two big national parties. BJP and Congress put together have won 42% of the votes polled, 58% going to the rest.
+Some of this 58% has, of course, gone to allies of BJP or Congress, like Shiv Sena or Akalis in the case of BJP, or DMK and RJD in the case of Congress. Nevertheless, these are not votes won by the two national parties on their own.
+More importantly , the bulk of the 33.5 crore votes polled by the rest has gone to parties like Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Trinamool Congress, Biju Janata Dal, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Left in Kerala or Tripura which are not aligned with either of the two national parties.
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1
+]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+==2012-17: State assembly elections==
+[[File: States ruled by the BJP and Congress, 2012-17.jpg|States ruled by the BJP and Congress, 2012-17; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=12_03_2017_010_013_011&type=P&artUrl=Son-Of-The-Toil-Gets-Uttar-Right-For-12032017010013&eid=31808 The Times of India], March 12, 2017|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand.jpg|Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=THE-DARK-SIDE-OF-THE-CAMPAIGN-TRAIL-12032017019011 The Times of India], March 12, 2017|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, states, Manipur and Goa.jpg|Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, Manipur and Goa; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=THE-DARK-SIDE-OF-THE-CAMPAIGN-TRAIL-12032017019011 The Times of India], March 12, 2017|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017.jpg|Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=VICTORY-MARGINS-IN-STATES-12032017020032 The Times of India], March 12, 2017|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017, Goa and Manipur.jpg|Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017, Goa and Manipur; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=VICTORY-MARGINS-IN-STATES-12032017020032 The Times of India], March 12, 2017|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphics''':
+''States ruled by the BJP and Congress, 2012-17''
+''Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand''
+''Seizures of money and liquor by the Election Commission in the run-up to the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017, states, Manipur and Goa''
+''Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand''
+''Victory margins in the state assembly elections of 2017, Goa and Manipur''
+==The political map of India, 2012, 2017, 2018==
+[[File: The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states in 2012, 2017 and 2018.jpg|The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states in 2012, 2017 and 2018 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F12&entity=Ar00307&sk=81CA2E76&mode=image  December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+''The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states in 2012, 2017 and 2018''
+===2014- 2020===
+[[File: The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states, 2014- 2020.jpg| The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states, 2014- 2020 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2020%2F11%2F12&entity=Ar02313&sk=41C21B30&mode=text  November 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+'' The standing of the BJP, Congress and other major parties in the Indian states, 2014- 2020 ''
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS]]
+===2014-19: BJP won most MLA seats, Cong not far behind===
+[[File: Seats won by Congress in 2014.jpg|Seats won by Congress in 2014 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F03%2F11&entity=Ar01201&sk=5FDC02EB&mode=image  Mach 11, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Seats won by BJP in 2014.jpg|Seats won by BJP in 2014 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F03%2F11&entity=Ar01201&sk=5FDC02EB&mode=image  Mach 11, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Seats won by Federal Front in 2014.jpg|Seats won by Federal Front in 2014 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F03%2F11&entity=Ar01201&sk=5FDC02EB&mode=image  Mach 11, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Seats won by- Non aligned but won't back BJP; Non aligned and can go either way, in 2014.jpg|Seats won by- Non aligned but won't back BJP; Non aligned and can go either way, in 2014 <br/> From:  [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F03%2F11&entity=Ar01201&sk=5FDC02EB&mode=image  Mach 11, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphics''':
+''Seats won by Congress in 2014''
+''Seats won by BJP in 2014''
+''Seats won by Federal Front in 2014''
+''Seats won by- Non aligned but won't back BJP; Non aligned and can go either way, in 2014''
+===2015-23===
+[[File: A political map of India that shows which party ruled which state between 2015 and 2023.jpg|A political map of India that shows which party ruled which state between 2015 and 2023 <br/> From: [From the archives, ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+'' A political map of India that shows which party ruled which state between 2015 and 2023 ''
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1
+]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+===2018-19: Which party ruled how many states===
+[[File: Seats won by major political parties in 2014 and the timeline for voting for 17th Lok Sabha elections- April 11, 2019 till May 19, 2019..jpg|Seats won by major political parties in 2014; <br/> The timeline for voting for 17th Lok Sabha elections: April 11, 2019 till May 19, 2019. <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F03%2F11&entity=Ar00304&sk=D772882A&mode=image&fbclid=IwAR2V958okkuNFoWSwHHwSgsFeoNbJrDFCEmWJcXcFRaJVr93zLuoNvKJh0E  March 11, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+''Seats won by major political parties in 2014; <br/> The timeline for voting for 17th Lok Sabha elections: April 11, 2019 till May 19, 2019.''
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1
+]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+==2017==
+[[File: Population and territory governed by BJP and its allies, March 16, 2017.jpg|Population and territory governed by BJP and its allies, March 16, 2017; [http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/the-safforinsation-of-india/articleshow/57596704.cms The Times of India], March 12, 2017|frame|500px]]
+===State assembly election results analysed===
+[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Splash-Of-Saffron-In-Holi-Land-12032017011010 The Times of India], Mar 12 2017
+[[File: State assembly election results analysed, 2017.jpg|State assembly election results analysed, 2017|frame|500px]]
+''' BJP Vote Share In UP Rises 25% From '12, Cong's Down In 5 States '''
+Impressive as the BJP's showing was in terms of seats in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur, a look at how vote shares have shifted compared to five years ago makes the performance even more creditable.
+In UP, the party upped its share by a jaw-dropping 25 percentage points since 2012 almost equaling its 2014 share. Considering that was in a Lok Sabha poll in which national parties typically perform better than in state elections, it is quite an achievement to have nearly held on to what it got at the peak of the Modi wave.
+In Uttarakhand, the party saw its share climb from 33% in 2012 to 46.5% this time. In a state that has always witnessed close contests in the assembly polls since its formation in 2001, this allowed the BJP to sweep the state with a 13 percentage point lead over the rival Congress.The BJP added to its share essentially by eating into the shares of all others.
+In Manipur, the saffron party has become the single largest in terms of vote share with 36.3% helped in some measure by a sharp seven percentage point decline in the Congress' share. In comparison to these sharp climbs, the drop in vote share in Punjab and Goa looks trivial.
+In contrast, the Congress lost vote share in every one of the five states, the sharpest falls coming in Manipur and Uttar Pradesh, though the latter was partly due to the party contesting much fewer seats.
+Akali Dal was another big loser in vote share, shedding close to 10 percentage points compared to the 2012 elections. However, this was just a little lower than its 2014 vote share which suggests that expectations of a complete meltdown of its base were grossly exaggerated.
+For AAP, a 23.7% vote share in its first foray in assembly polls in Punjab may seem like a promising beginning, but the party would be disappointed that it couldn't better its 2014 performance, when it won 24.4%. With the same share spread thinner this time, it could win just 20 seats while it had led in 33 in the Lok Sabha polls.
+===Perceived behaviour of castes, communities===
+[[File: Voting behaviour, community and caste-wise, 2017.jpg|Voting behaviour, community and caste-wise, 2017; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=POCKETS-OF-INFLUENCE-12032017012025 The Times of India], March 12, 2017|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+''Voting behaviour, community and caste-wise, 2017''
+==2018==
+===Assembly elections in 5 states: BJP loses===
+====State-wise results====
+[[File: The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Seats won by the major parties in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh.jpg|The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Seats won by the major parties in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F12&entity=Ar00501&sk=5F41AD61&mode=image  December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Mizoram, Telangana.jpg|The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Mizoram, Telangana <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F12&entity=Ar00501&sk=5F41AD61&mode=image  December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphics''':
+''The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Seats won by the major parties in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh''
+''The results of the state assembly elections of Dec. 2018- Mizoram, Telangana''
+====Aam Aadmi Party’s performance====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F12&entity=Ar01023&sk=926D4EB4&mode=text  Alok K N Mishra, ...But losses in 4 states a dampener, December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
+The results of assembly elections were a dampener for AAP, which had put its political aspirations to test in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Chattisgarh. It contested on 482 seats across the four states and lost all of them.
+While the party has no base in these states, it maintained that it has only gained strength by contesting there, regardless of the result. The decision to contest, apparently, came after volunteers from these states urged the party to contest there to keep the volunteers motivated.
+AAP contested 208 of 230 seats in MP. It announced a CM candidate and also released a manifesto, promising Delhi-like health and education services. AAP leaders extensively campaigned in the state, including the party’s MP in-charge Gopal Rai and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh. Majority of the candidates lost their deposits while the CM candidate, Alok Agrawal, who also heads the MP unit of AAP, finished fourth on the Bhopal South West seat.
+The party had big hopes in Rajasthan where its state unit switched to poll mode months before elections were announced. In April, senior leader Deepak Bajpai was appointed the incharge for Rajasthan. Bajpai replaced disgruntled AAP leader Kumar Vishwas who, AAP had said, was unable to devote time for the state.
+Bajpai camped in the state to pick candidates and claimed that the party was certain of making a huge debut this time. AAP hardsold its Delhi model of governance through its manifesto and deployed a battery of leaders from Delhi to campaign in the state. Arvind Kejriwal also held one election rally in Jaipur.
+AAP originally planned to contest all 200 states in Rajasthan, but eventually contested on 147 and lost on all.
+The Chattisgarh results were also disappointing for the party as none of the 85 candidates could win. AAP’ chief ministerial candidate for Chhattisgarh, Komal Hupendi, remained at the third position while many of the party candidates lost their deposits. An almost similar situation was witnessed in Telangana too where the party fielded 41 candidates.
+AAP’s Telangana incharge Somnath Bharti blamed the poor performance on the alleged deletion of 22 lakh voters. He also said the purpose was to defeat BJP but AAP found it difficult to beat the money and muscle power it faced.
+====Assets, age, gender====
+[[File: The MLAs elected in December 2018- average assets, average age and gender.jpg|The MLAs elected in December 2018- average assets, average age and gender <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F12&entity=Ar01902&sk=9B935D33&mode=image  December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+''The MLAs elected in December 2018- average assets, average age and gender''
+====BSP’s performance====
+[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/hindi-belt-gifts-mayawati-a-mixed-bag/  Hindi belt gifts Mayawati a mixed bag, December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
+So it turns out that it was not Congress that got bruised by the Mayawati/Jogi alliance in Chhattisgarh. BSP vote share in fact  dropped from 4.45% in 2013 to 3.9% even as, without it, Congress romped to a thumping victory.
+But had Congress and BSP contested together in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, they would have crossed the finishing line easily – instead of GOP being halted teasingly short of the majority mark on counting day.
+BSP attracted 5% vote share in MP and 4% in Rajasthan, compared to Congress’s 40.9% and 39.3%. This should shape alliance talks for the next Lok Sabha elections. Mayawati must accept realistic seat share arrangements, now that Congress has established how strongly it can bat by itself in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and MP.
+The lesson for that mahagathbandhan, especially in light of how mahakutami crashed and burnt in Telangana, is that pie-in-the-sky seat sharing where junior allies gobble much more than is healthy, ends in regrets not celebrations. In Uttar Pradesh, in exchange, Mayawati should be able to call the shots rather than Congress.
+In other news relevant for mahagathbandhan talks in the Hindi belt, across MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, SP was beaten convincingly by NOTA.
+====Cong neutralised vote katuwas/ spoilers====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F13&entity=Ar02114&sk=56BDEB0B&mode=text  Subodh Ghildiyal, How Cong swung it with some luck & a lot of pluck, December 13, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
+In both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Congress’s victory margins were slim, but it was not counting on its luck alone. Here was a party showing a lot of pluck as well.
+After a string of defeats since 2014, Congress also appears to have found ways to counter BJP’s strategy of saddling it with ‘vote katuwas’ or ‘spoilers’.
+In Madhya Pradesh, the party actually finished with a vote share that was 0.1 percentage points less than that of BJP. Yet, it won 114 seats — just two short of majority — while BJP ended at 109. Congress managed to convert votes into seats more effectively than BJP.
+In Rajasthan, Congress’ vote share was just 0.5 percentage points more than BJP. But this made a huge difference in the seat tally.
+Congress argues the anti-BJP sentiment was so strong that multiple poles like Bharatiya Tribal Party, 11 of 13 independents with Congress roots, BSP and CPM got some anti-BJP votes as well. Non-Congress, non-BJP votes totalled 21.9%, with 9.5% going to independents.
+Luck may or may not have played a part in helping Congress in the first-past-the-post system, but the party did show some nimble-footedness unlike in the past.
+As the counting in MP turned into a protracted exercise and the clash turned into a cliff-hanger, Congress stitched up the loose ends, spending the entire day contacting likely winners in BSP, SP and independents. Sources said Congress started to win over the ‘others’ winning MLAs so early it could have formed the government even if it had won fewer seats.
+State chief Kamal Nath sought the governor’s appointment on Tuesday while counting was still on, claiming Congress would emerge as the single-largest party and could form the government with others’ support.
+It was a marked change from Goa and Manipur where Congress emerged the single-largest party ahead of BJP and barely short of majority, but found that BJP had already bagged the ‘others’.
+A noticeable change was Congress’ ability to overcome “spoilers” who threatened to turn a direct face-off with BJP into a triangular contest.
+====NOTA (none of the above) reflects the public mood====
+=====MP: Nota votes dislodge 4 BJP ministers=====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F13&entity=Ar02100&sk=BEA48C82&mode=text  Angry Nota votes knock out 4 BJP ministers in MP, December 13, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
+The roller-coaster ride on counting day and the heart-stopping scoreline had a common factor — tens of thousands of confused and disgruntled voters. In an election supposedly fought on pro- and anti-incumbency, Nota surprisingly had fifth largest tally of votes in Madhya Pradesh.
+The number of no-choice votes crossed victory margins in a whopping 22 constituencies, felling four powerful BJP ministers. While the gap between BJP and Congress vote share was only 0.1% (BJP being in the lead), Nota bagged 1.4% of votes polled — over 5.4 lakh.
+BJP (41%) and Congress (40.9%) were followed by BSP with 5% vote share and Gondvana Gantantra Party (GGP) at 1.8 %. Nota, at fifth place, polled more votes than SP (1.3%) and AAP (0.7%).
+Of the 22 seats, where Nota topped victory margins, there were four constituencies where ministers lost by a whisker. The lowest victory margin was 121 votes in Gwalior South, where Nota got 1,550 votes, leaving MoShome Narayan Singh Kushwaha wringing his hands in despair.
+In Damoh, finance minister Jayant Malaiya lost by only 799 votes, while Nota polled 1,299 votes. In Jabalpur North, MoS, health, Sharad Jain lost by just 578 votes while Nota bagged 1,209 votes. In Burhanpur constituency, minister for women and child development, Archana Chitnis, lost by 5,120 votes and Nota’s score was around 5,700 votes.
+While BJP bled more due to Nota — ending up on the losing side in 12 of these 22 seats — Congress received some battering as well. In Timarni seat, Abhijeet Shah of Congress lost to Sanjay Shah of BJP by a margin of 2,213 votes while Nota got 4,084 votes. In Nagod constituency, Congress heavyweight Yadvendra Singh lost by a thin margin of 1,234 votes, while 2,301 votes went to Nota.
+Bundelkhand and Malwa drew the highest number of Nota votes that triggered upsets. Of the 22 seats where Nota trumped victory margins, nine are in Bundelkhand and eight in Malwa. In Bundelkhand, it is believed that the campaign by some upper caste organisations to vote for Nota, rather than BJP or Congress, may have been a factor. They were upset with both major parties for the SC/ST Act ordinance that bypassed Supreme Court’s directive for investigation before arrest in cases filed under the Act. In Malwa, tribal regions saw most Nota votes, apparently due to lack of awareness. It’s a common feature in tribal areas, but in such a close election, it turned out to be a tipping factor.
+=====Nota costs BJP dearly in Rajasthan=====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F13&entity=Ar02113&sk=ED6900A9&mode=text  December 13, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
+It was a marginal difference in voteshares of the Congress and BJP that sealed the fate of outgoing CM Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan.
+BJP secured a voteshare of 38.8% while Congress, which with 99 seats emerged the single-largest party, took 39.3% of votes polled — a difference of a mere 0.5%. A total of 1.39 crore votes went to Congress while BJP bagged 1.37 crore votes. That works out to a difference of about 1.70 lakh votes.
+Interestingly, the none-ofthe-above or Nota option accounted for 1.3% of the votes. These figures all go to show how much of a close fight it was between the two major parties in the state.
+BJP, which swept the 2013 assembly polls with a voteshare of 46.05% and 163 of the 200 seats, saw a 7.25% dip in voteshare this time. Its tally in 2018 was down to 73. Congress, in 2013, secured a 33.71% voteshare and had 21 seats to show for it.
+Even if it were to be believed that BJP lost 5.6% of its voteshare to Congress, the remaining 1.65% may be put down to Nota — which is conventionally seen as a vote
+against the ruling party -- the more than 15 rebels who contested as Independents and smaller parties.
+Coming to terms with the near miss, state BJP leaders are now claiming a moral victory for the party. “Congress has performed only slightly better than BJP. There was no Congress wave. Even the victory margins for several Congress MLAs have been quite low,” said state BJP leader Jyoti Kiran.
+====Rural and tribal areas; parliament and assembly seats====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F12&entity=Ar00400&sk=975211A0&mode=text  Why heartland could turn out to be hurtland for BJP, December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
+[[File: The performance of the BJP and Congress in rural and tribal areas; and in parliamentary and assembly seats.jpg|The performance of the BJP and Congress in rural and tribal areas; and in parliamentary and assembly seats <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F12&entity=Ar00400&sk=975211A0&mode=text  Why heartland could turn out to be hurtland for BJP, December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+What would happen in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls if voters stuck to their party preferences? A mapping of the assembly segments onto the relevant parliamentary seats suggests that the BJP would still win 17 out of 29 in MP and 13 out of 25 in Rajasthan, but get almost wiped out in Chhattisgarh winning just one of the state’s 11 seats.
+But does such a mapping make sense? Past experience suggests it is not a bad rough guide. These states have held assembly polls barely six months or less ahead of the Lok Sabha polls of 2004, 2009 and 2014. In each case, their verdict in the parliamentary seats has more or less mirrored the assembly outcome. The sole exception is Rajasthan in 2004, when it gave the BJP 20 of 25 Lok Sabha seats despite having defeated the party in the December 2003 assembly polls.
+If the pattern holds, that could be really bad news for the BJP since it had won all 25 seats in Rajasthan, 27 of 29 seats in MP and 10 of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh in 2014. That’s a total of 62 out of 65 Lok Sabha seats. The current mapping suggests that number could come down to 31, half of the 2014 tally. Of course, the Congress tally would rise correspondingly. Given that the 2014 performance would be hard to repeat in Uttar Pradesh anyway, this is a loss the BJP can ill afford.
+====Vote share: BJP loses, but not only to Cong====
+[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bjp-loses-vote-share-big-time-but-not-all-to-congress/articleshow/67045588.cms  December 11, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
+With the BJP suffering losses in three key states, its vote share has taken a sharp dip in Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh since the last assembly elections in 2013, but all these votes do not seem to have gone to the Congress alone as other players have also reaped the gains.
+The vote share loss is even bigger for the saffron party since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, in which it had virtually swept all the three states by winning 62 out of 65 seats, as per the Election Commission data.
+In Telanagana and Mizoram, it is the regional parties who have come out with flying colours, a post-2014 trend clearly visible in many states with sizeable presence of non-BJP and non-Congress parties.
+Political pundits said this trend indicates that the regional satraps might play key roles in 2019 general elections for which attempts are already underway by non-BJP parties to put a united front against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's bid for a second term.
+For Chattisgarh, the latest data showed the Congress getting 43.2% votes in this elections, up from 40.3% in the 2013 state polls and 38.37% in the 2014 general elections, where the party won only one out of 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
+In comparison, the BJP's loss has been wider with its vote share dipping from 41% in 2013 to 32.9% now. In 2014 general elections, the party had got nearly 49% vote and 10 out of the 11 Lok Sabha seats.
+The voting share analysis shows that some smaller parties and independents have managed to get more votes. While BSP had got 4.3% in 2013, its alliance with former chief minister Ajit Jogi's party has now got about 10.7% votes.
+Independents have also improved their performance from 5.3% to 6.3%.
+Similar trend was visible in Rajasthan where BJP's votes have fallen from 45.2% in 2013 to 38.8% now. It was much higher at nearly 55% in 2014, when the party won all 25 Lok Sabha seats from the state.
+On the other hand, the Congress has improved its vote share from 33.1% in 2013 to 39.2% in 2018. It had managed to get nearly 30% votes despite losing on all seats in last parliamentary elections.
+Independents have improved their assembly tally from 8.2% to 9.5%, while bagging larger number of seats.
+The vote share situation is the most interesting in Madhya Pradesh, which saw the closest fight between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress' share has improved from 36.4% in 2013 to 41.4% in 2018 assembly polls, while that of the BJP has come down from 44.9% to 41.3%, as per the latest update.
+The BSP's share here has actually fallen to 4.6%, while that of the independents has remained nearly same at over 5%. However, some other smaller parties have made gains.
+In Telangana, the TRS is returning to power with a bigger mandate and a rise in its vote share from nearly 34% last time to about 47%. The Congress has also improved from 25.2% to 28.7%, though its newly-found ally TDP, which was earlier with BJP, has taken a beating.
+BJP's vote share has remained almost static at about 7% since last assembly elections in 2014. However, its vote share has come down from 10.4% in 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
+Mizoram is the only state where the Congress has lost its vote share and the BJP has gained. However, the winner there is a third player, the Mizo National Front, which has returned to power with a clear majority by ousting the only Congress government left in the North-East.
+The Congress vote share has come down from nearly 45% in 2013 to just about 30%, while that of BJP has risen five-fold from 0.4% to 8%.
+The MNF has improved from 28.8% to 37.6%, while its seat tally has risen from five to 26. The Congress seats have come down from 34 to five, while the BJP has won its maiden assembly seat in the state.
+While the vote share data for 2018 polls was still being updated by the poll panel, the final figures are expected to remain around these levels.
+====Winners and losers====
+[[File: The winners and losers of the Assembly elections in 5 states held in December 2018.jpg|The winners and losers of the Assembly elections in 5 states held in December 2018 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F12&entity=Ar00306&sk=1F9C3E62&mode=image  December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+''The winners and losers of the Assembly elections in 5 states held in December 2018''
+====The meaning of the results====
+[[File: The meaning of the results of the state assembly elections of December 2018.jpg|The meaning of the results of the state assembly elections of December 2018 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F12%2F12&entity=Ar00502&sk=CDB5379F&mode=text  December 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+''The meaning of the results of the state assembly elections of December 2018''
+==2019==
+===Lok Sabha elections===
+====Region-wise: the strengths of various parties====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=02_06_2023_034_008_cap_TOI   June 2, 2023: ''The Times of India'']
+[[File: The  strengths of the various parties in the regions in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019.jpg|The  strengths of the various parties in the regions in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=02_06_2023_034_008_cap_TOI   June 2, 2023: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+'' The  strengths of the various parties in the regions in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019 ''
+There’s A Move Afoot In The Opposition To Pose A United Challenge To BJP In Next Year’s Lok Sabha Elections. While Each Opposition Party Has Its Strongholds, Fort BJP Is Much Larger. Atul Thakur Shows Where The Different Players Had Planted Their Colours In 2019:
+===Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections===
+[[File: Oct 2019- The results of the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections.jpg|Oct 2019: The results of the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F10%2F25&entity=Ar00600&sk=21E52D76&mode=text Ajay Sura & Manvir Saini, Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+'' Oct 2019: The results of the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections ''
+==== What the verdict means====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL/2019/10/25&entity=Ar02507&sk=52E871FB&mode=text  Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
+This was not supposed to be a competitive round. After the big BJP wins in Maharashtra and Haryana in the Lok Sabha elections only 5 months ago and the widely perceived support for decisions on J&K, the party’s win was a given. However, voters sprang a surprise by denying BJP a majority in Haryana and restricting its mandate in Maharashtra. The outcome will disappoint BJP and could trigger introspection about the adequacy of its “nationalist” plank in local leagues, especially amid an economic slowdown. It does not undercut its political pre-eminence but sharply underscores the challenges to its bid for countrywide dominance that Congress once enjoyed.
+The less-than-impressive saffron show just when it had seemed “unreachable” by a big distance is a tribute to the tenacity of the “local” — short-hand for personalities and factors that influence choices at the grassroots. They may be pushed to the background in an LS poll, yielding an overarching theme or a popular national leader like Narendra Modi, but return with vengeance in state elections. Results of by-elections and, in many cases, success of rebels are also a testimony to the resilience of the rooted. The Indian experience provides validation for former US Speaker Tip O’ Neill, who famously said all politics is local.
+ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN:
+A slowing economy, unemployment and rural distress were issues and the jury is out on whether and to what degree they hurt BJP. Opposition parties predictably brought them up and pointed to a sullen mood. But to what ‘extent’ remains unresolved, considering that BJP picked up over 300 seats in the LS election against what some considered a very adverse setting. Also, BJP faced incumbency in both Haryana and Maharashtra and couldn’t have returned the numbers they did if they had faced large-scale resentment. Possibly, the discontent over kitchen table themes kept BJP from fully leveraging its assets CASTE MATTERS: Caste solidarity which yielded to Modi’s personal popularity and the strength of his plank, proved its salience yet again.
+The dominant castes of Marathas and Jats, who were feeling downsized, demonstrated their relevance.
+The performance of Pawar and Hooda owe a lot to caste support which also boosted new regional satrap Dushyant Chautala. The staunch support from their kin allowed their leaders to forge formidable social constituencies at the local level
+ARTICLE 370: Difficult to say to what extent the seemingly popular move to do away with the special status for J&K helped or hindered BJP. For, finding a reliable answer would require complete clarity on how the party would have performed if the ‘nationalist’ issue had not been in play. Also, Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda broke ranks with Rahul Gandhi to back the decision, while NCP’s Sharad Pawar and JJP’s Dushyant Chautala refrained from opposing it. But the slim win in Maharashtra and failure to score an outright win in Haryana will reinforce the view that local can trump national in regional arenas. Opposition parties may feel encouraged to resist BJP’s aggressive posture on the matter
+REGIONAL PLAYERS: From Arvind Kejriwal to Mamata Banerjee, regional satraps must be relieved.
+For, an emphatic performance by BJP would have left it thirsting for similar feats on their turfs. It could also have lent impetus to JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar’s scarcely concealed plan to keep BJP as his junior partner in Bihar for the coming state elections had he not fared so poorly in the by-polls GRAFT CASES: Whether allegations of corruption influence polls has been debated endlessly with people voting out the allegedly corrupt only to bring them back the next time. This time too, graft charges failed to dent Pawar or Hooda. Pawar, in fact, shrewdly turned a courtdirected ED inquiry to fend off BJP’s aggressive designs
+=====Details=====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F10%2F25&entity=Ar00602&sk=7A1B6E8E&mode=text   Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
+[[File: Oct 2019, The results of the by elections for some state assembly and Lok Sabha seats.jpg| Oct 2019: The results of the by elections for some state assembly and Lok Sabha seats. <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F10%2F25&entity=Ar00602&sk=7A1B6E8E&mode=text   Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+After the sweep comes the stumble. Just months after having decisively won the Lok Sabha elections with a decisive mandate, BJP turned in a notso-impressive performance.
+It scored a less-than-emphatic victory in Maharashtra and fell short of the majority mark in Haryana, in an outcome that will reignite the debate over the effectiveness of its “nationalist” plank in state polls, enthuse opponents and can trigger an introspection on how to address issues arising from slowdown.
+The party did not lose. In Maharashtra, where it had played second fiddle to Shiv Sena for decades, it defied incumbency to retain the CM post and its status as the number one player. In Haryana, a virgin territory until 2014, the party finished on top and can form government with the support of Independents. But the tallies fell short of the expectations aroused by its LS poll victory.
+The vociferous insertion of national issues made the Maharashtra and Haryana polls more of a verdict on decisions of the Modi government than might have been the case despite the clear prominence of local and regional factors and caste equations associated with state contests.
+==== By elections: NDA wons 26 out of 51, Cong 12====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL/2019/10/25&entity=Ar00613&sk=80CDB1B5&mode=text  Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
+BJP and its allies won 26 of the 51 assembly byelections in 18 states for which results were announced on Thursday, winning eight of the 11 contests in Uttar Pradesh but suffering setbacks in Gujarat and Bihar. Congress bagged 12 seats.
+In the two Lok Sabha bypolls, NCP’s Shriniwas Dadasaheb Patil scored an upset win over BJP’s Udayanraje Pratapsinghmaharaj Bhonsle in Satara, Maharashtra, while Prince Raj of LJP, a nephew of Ram Vilas Paswan, defeated Congress’ Ashok Kumar in Samastipur (SC), Bihar.
+The byelections marked the entry of BJP in the Sikkim assembly — where it won two of the three seats on offer — and that of AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, in Bihar.
+In UP, NDA retained eight of the nine seats it held but SP was a major gainer, wresting a seat each from BJP and BSP, while retaining Rampur. In Gujarat, BJP conceded three of six seats to Congress. BJP’s Alpesh Thakor, who had defected from Congress, lost.
+====8 ministers defeated in Maha, 7 in Haryana; turncoats lose====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL/2019/10/25&entity=Ar00604&sk=F314BEB9&mode=text  Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
+Ministers and turncoats pulled NDA down in the battle to retain Maharashtra and Haryana.
+Eight ministers of the Devendra Fadnavis government lost at the hustings, an embarrassment almost matched by the M L Khattar cabinet in Haryana that saw seven out of its nine BJP members biting the dust. Dimming the glow of returning to power in Maharashtra further was the electorate’s rejection of 11 prominent faces from the opposition camp that had crossed over to the BJP-Shiv Sena side just before the polls.
+While it was expected that some of Fadnavis’s ministers would lose, the defeat of agriculture minister Anil Bonde was a big surprise, as was that of high-profile rural development minister Pankaja Munde, who lost to her cousin Dhananjay Munde by 31,000 votes.
+The others included junior forest minister Parinay Fuke, employment guarantee minister Jaydutta Kshirsagar, who joined the Shiv Sena on the eve of the assembly elections, senior Sena leader and minister of state for textiles Arjun Khotkar, minister for marketing Ram Shinde, junior labour minister Bala Bhegde and MoS for water resources Vijay Shivtare.
+Eleven of the 19 prominent turncoats who had switched allegiance to BJP were defeated, too. The list includes Udayanraje Bhosale from Satara, former minister Harshavardhan Patil, Vaibhav Pichad and Dilip Sopal.
+In Haryana, the capitulation of ministers wasn’t the only setback to BJP. State party chief Subhash Barala suffered defeat at the hands of JJP’s Devender Babli by a margin of 52,302 votes, leaving him so disappointed that he left the counting hall midway and soon announced his resignation.
+''' Only 2 netas in Khattar cabinet manage to clear the mark '''
+Ministers Anil Vij from Ambala Cantonment and Banwari Lal from Bawal constituency were the only victorious ones for BJP. Khattar had 11 ministers in his cabinet, two of whom — Vipul Goel and Rao Narbir — were denied tickets.
+The senior-most minister, Ram Bilas Sharma, who was in charge of education and tourism, lost to Rao Dan Singh, a loyalist of former Congress chief minister Bhupinder Hooda, by a margin of 9,240 votes.
+The one outcome that dealt the biggest shock was the defeat of finance minister Capt Abhimanyu, seen by many as the most powerful in Khattar’s cabinet. Capt Abhimanyu lost to ex-BJP stalwart Ram Kumar Gautam of JJP by a margin of 12,029 votes.
+BJP’s “farmer face”, agriculture minister Om Parkash Dhankar, lost to Kuldeep Vats in Badli by 11,245 votes. Manish Grover, a junior minister, was defeated by Hooda loyalist Bharat Bhushan Batra in Rohtak city. Three-time MLA and women and child development minister Kavita Jain, whose husband was media adviser to Khattar, couldn’t retain her seat either. Neither could three-time MLA and speaker Krishan Lal Panwar in Israna.
+Krishan Kumar Bedi, the minister from Shahbad, also lost, as did Karan Dev Kamboj by a small margin of 560 votes.
+==== Art 370 as a poll issue====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL/2019/10/25&entity=Ar00612&sk=E9DEAD13&mode=text  Akhilesh Singh, Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
+BJP’s failure to retain the numbers it had won in Maharashtra and Haryana in 2014 has raised the question whether it became excessively dependent on the popularity of its Article 370 decision, reports Akhilesh Singh. In Haryana, seven ministers, the speaker and state party chief lost. In Maharashtra, BJP suffered an unexpected setback in Vidarbha, home base of Fadnavis and Gadkari. Young leader Pankaja Munde also lost, leading many in the party to question the effectiveness of “nationalist” themes in state contests.
+==== BJP scores betters in NCR ====
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL/2019/10/25&entity=Ar00702&sk=AA53D6DB&mode=text  Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
+BJP performed better in Delhi’s neighbourhood than in the rest of Haryana, winning 14 of the 25 seats in NCR districts. This was three seats more than its 2014 score of 11 in NCR and accounted for more than a third of its final tally of 40 in the assembly polls.
+Congress equalled its 2014 seat count of nine in NCR, including three seats in Mewat, where BJP’s strategy to field veterans like Zakir Hussain did not work. INLD slipped from four seats to nil in NCR and JJP failed to open its account.
+But it was an independent who became the day’s talking point, winning a seat that senior BJP leader and cabinet minister Rao Narbir Singh held since 2014. Rakesh Daultabad, the man whose radio ads made his name a familiar one beyond Gurgaon’s borders, won Badshapur, Haryana’s largest constituency by voter numbers (3.6 lakh), by more than 10,000 votes. Badshapur is predominantly urban, includes many of Gurgaon’s new sectors and parts of Sohna Road, and had witnessed a vote boycott call before the elections over poor civic infrastructure and the government’s failure to relocate the toll plaza from Kherki Daula.
+Daultabad’s campaign was based on “local connect”, something his opponent struggled with, especially BJP, which denied Narbir a ticket and fielded Manish Yadav, the party’s state youth wing president, in his place. That strategy appears to have backfired.
+====The winners====
+[[File: Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- the winners.jpg|Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- the winners <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL/2019/10/25&entity=Ar00802&sk=FFF31438&mode=image  Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+'' Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- the winners ''
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+====BJP dips in Vidarbha (Maha), Cong rises in Haryana====
+[[File: Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- BJP dips in Vidarbha (Maha), Cong rises in Haryana.jpg|Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- BJP dips in Vidarbha (Maha), Cong rises in Haryana <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL/2019/10/25&entity=Ar00800&sk=D3929F1E&mode=image  Oct 25, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+'' Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections, 2019- BJP dips in Vidarbha (Maha), Cong rises in Haryana ''
+===Parties in office in states===
+[[File: The map shows parties in office in the states, as in March 2019.jpg|The map shows parties in office in the states, as in March 2019 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F03%2F11&entity=Ar01401&sk=E4B2D5D6&mode=image  March 11, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic'''
+''The map shows parties in office in the states, as in March 2019''
+===Pre-election doles===
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F02%2F07&entity=Ar00502&sk=E181B177&mode=text  Suchandana Gupta & Prabin Kalita , Sops shower: Gold for brides in Assam, jobless dole in MP, February 7, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
+[[File: Welfare measures unveiled by the Centre and States before the 2019 general elections.jpg|Welfare measures unveiled by the Centre and States before the 2019 general elections <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F02%2F07&entity=Ar00502&sk=E181B177&mode=text  Suchandana Gupta & Prabin Kalita , Sops shower: Gold for brides in Assam, jobless dole in MP, February 7, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+''Scramble To Hand Out Goodies Ahead Of Polls''
+With elections looming, the political class seems to have its priorities sorted out: It’s politics over economics and voter over the exchequer. The Centre and states have been doling out sops — from farm loan waivers and income support for agriculturalists to unemployment doles and even gold.
+In BJP-ruled Assam, finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma raised the bar by offering gold, estimated to cost Rs 38,000, for brides from families with annual income of less than Rs 5 lakh. He also promised “e-bikes” for all girls who secure first division in higher secondary examination and a one-time subsidy of Rs 50,000 on all education loans sanctioned during the current financial year.
+MP is expected to announce a monthly unemployment allowance of Rs 4,000, going one step ahead of Rajasthan which promised Rs 3,000-3,500 a month.
+'''MP govt to double pension for elderly'''
+The Kamal Nath government in MP will also roll out a scheme guaranteeing 100 days of work for urban youth. Sources said the Congress regime will also double social security pension for elderly from Rs 300 to Rs 600. All three decisions were cleared by CM and finance department.
+When it’s poll season, taxes are something that no finance minister wants to raise. Last Friday, the Centre offered 100% tax rebate for those earning up to Rs 5 lakh while offering concessions also to senior citizens and the middle class.
+On Wednesday, Leftruled Kerala deferred its plan to levy a “flood cess” on GST. It had argued for the cess on the ground that the money thus mopped up would be used for repairing the damage caused by the calamity. There is no clarity whether the state would go ahead with its budget proposal until Lok Sabha elections are over.
+The pre-poll gifts come ahead of the general elections, which are expected to be keenly contested, prompting politicians to woo voters with freebies that economists have frowned upon on the ground that they could adversely impact the already-strained exchequer.
+===Assembly elections, by-elections/ May===
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F05%2F24&entity=Ar00504&sk=7A5406A6&mode=text  May 24, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
+Jagan takes Andhra by storm, Naveen gets record 5th term
+Jaganmohan Reddy's YSRCP sweeps Andhra, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD wins Odisha for a fifth time, and five-time Sikkim CM Pawan Kumar Chamling loses a cliffhanger.
+Odisha: BJD beats anti-incumbency to win 28 seats and lead in 84 out of 146 seats, though BJP makes big gains in assembly (likely to win 23) and Lok Sabha polls. Naveen Patnaik lives to fight another day, becoming the third chief minister to get a 5th straight term, after West Bengal former CM Jyoti Basu and Sikkim’s Pawan Chamling.
+Andhra Pradesh: Jaganmohan Reddy will replace Chandrababu Naidu as CM after winning 129 and leading in 21 out of 175 seats. Naidu’s TDP is virtually wiped out, and his national plans are in ruins. The way back will not be easy Arunachal Pradesh: BJP well on its way to retain office with a win in 60-seat assembly. Likely to form a government again under CM Pema Khandu.
+TamilNadu:AIADMKsettowin nine out of 22 seats in which bypolls have been held, ensuring the Palaniswami government (123 out of 234 seats) can last its full term.
+Goa: BJP loses Parrikar’s Panjim constituency after 25 years to Atanasio Monserrate (Cong), wins 3 other bypolls West Bengal: In keeping with its gains in LS seats in the state, BJP is on its way to win 4 out of 8 bypoll seats, ahead of TMC (3) and Congress (1).
+Sikkim: In a huge upset, CM Pawan Chamling’s SDF (part of NDA) loses. SKM leader Prem Tamang likely to be the new chief minister.
+===October elections: Five trends===
+[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/5-surprises-from-state-elections/articleshow/71766176.cms  May 23, 2021: ''The Times of India'']
+[[File: Where NOTA got the highest % of votes in Maharashtra, 2019.jpg|Where NOTA got the highest % of votes in Maharashtra, 2019 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/5-surprises-from-state-elections/articleshow/71766176.cms  May 23, 2021: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Parties with victory margins greater than 50,000 votes in Maharashtra, 2019.jpg|Parties with victory margins greater than 50,000 votes in Maharashtra, 2019 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/5-surprises-from-state-elections/articleshow/71766176.cms  May 23, 2021: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Average assets on the rise, Maharashtra and Haryana, 2014-19.jpg|Average assets on the rise, Maharashtra and Haryana, 2014-19 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/5-surprises-from-state-elections/articleshow/71766176.cms  May 23, 2021: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Haryana assembly polls seat tally, 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2019 Assembly polls.jpg|Haryana assembly polls seat tally, 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2019 Assembly polls <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/5-surprises-from-state-elections/articleshow/71766176.cms  May 23, 2021: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Haryana vote shares, party-wise- Assembly elections 2014, Lok Sabha elections 2019 and Assembly elections 2019.jpg|Haryana vote shares, party-wise- Assembly elections 2014, Lok Sabha elections 2019 and Assembly elections 2019 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/5-surprises-from-state-elections/articleshow/71766176.cms  May 23, 2021: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Maharashtra assembly polls seat tally, 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2019 Assembly polls.jpg|Maharashtra assembly polls seat tally, 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2019 Assembly polls <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/5-surprises-from-state-elections/articleshow/71766176.cms  May 23, 2021: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+[[File: Maharashtra vote shares, party-wise- Assembly elections 2014, Lok Sabha elections 2019 and Assembly elections 2019.jpg|Maharashtra vote shares, party-wise- Assembly elections 2014, Lok Sabha elections 2019 and Assembly elections 2019 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/5-surprises-from-state-elections/articleshow/71766176.cms  May 23, 2021: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+A record-breaking winner, votes for nobody, millionaire MLAs and other things you may not have known about this week's elections
+While the election results in Maharashtra and Haryana have dominated the headlines, poll data from the two states along with byelections held in 51 seats across 18 states have thrown up some interesting trends. Here are some unique ones you should know about.
+''' 1. A new political star in Odisha? '''
+Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) candidate, Rita Sahu, created electoral history by winning the Bijepur bypoll with a record margin of 97,990 votes— the highest-ever for an assembly segment in the state. Rita’s rival Sanat Gartia of BJP got only 37,967 votes.
+The scale of Rita’s victory can be gauged from the fact that she polled more votes (1,35,957 ) than Naveen did in the April assembly polls (1,10,166). The chief minister’s victory margin was 57,000, a little over half of Rita’s. Patnaik vacated Bijepur for Hinjili, his traditional seat — after he won both seats in April — which necessitated the byelection.
+Before this, the highest assembly seat victory margin in Odisha was 94,555, achieved by current Andhra Pradesh governor and BJP leader Biswa Bhusan Harichandan against the then Congress rival Jagannath Mohapatra in Bhubaneswar in 2000.
+Forty-six-year-old Rita entered politics last year after the death of her husband, Subal Sahu, the then Congress MLA of Bijepur.
+''' 2. A record number of Indians voted for nobody '''
+The None of the Above (Nota) option appears to be gaining traction with voters. Nota got over 5% votes in five constituencies in Maharashtra. It was runner-up in Latur (Rural) and Palus Kadegaon assembly constituencies where Congress candidates Dhiraj Deshmukh and Vishwajeet Kadam emerged winners. In both the seats, Nota fetched 13.8% (27,449) and 10% (20,572) votes, respectively. The Shiv Sena was relegated to third place. BJP workers in both constituencies say they opted for Nota to protest the party’s move to swap seats with alliance partner Shiv Sena. Nearly 1.45 lakh Mumbaikars also expressed their frustration with the government. In Mumbai’s Borivali, Jogeshwari (East) and Palghar (ST) where Nota got 6.1%, 8.1% and 5.5% of the votes, respectively. Experts attribute this to anger over issues like the tree felling for a Metro car shed in Aarey Colony and the collapse of the Punjab & Maharashtra Cooperative Bank.
+In both states, NOTA got more votes than what the Aam Aadmi Party could manage. In Haryana Nota’s vote share was 0.53% as compared to AAP’s 0.48% and in Maharashtra, Nota's 1.37% vote share beat AAP’s 0.11%.
+''' 3. Big victories got bigger in Maharashtra '''
+In 45 seats, the margin of victory was over 50,000 votes. Of these, the BJP won 19, the Shiv Sena 9, NCP 11, Congress 4 and others 2. Former Maharashtra deputy chief minister and NCP leader Ajit Pawar won the Baramati assembly constituency by over 1.65 lakh votes — the highest victory margin recorded by a candidate this election.
+''' 4. New MLAs are 50% to 100% richer '''
+In Maharashtra, the average assets of the House rose to Rs 22.2 crore in 2019 compared with Rs 10.84 crore in 2014 — a 104% increase. The average assets of MLAs in Haryana stood at Rs 18.4 crore which was 41.8% more than the average of the House elected in 2014. The richest elected MLA in Maharashtra is Parag Shah from the BJP with total assets worth over Rs 500 crore.
+''' 5. From national to local in 4 months '''
+A closer look at how people voted in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the assembly polls clearly shows that people vote differently on national and local issues. While they may prefer a strong national leader like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at the state level, local issues and personalities take precedence.
+In Lok Sabha polls, the saffron dominance was complete in Haryana, with the BJP winning all 10 seats. In comparison, the assembly election results were a mixed bag for the party.
+BJP saw a drastic decline in its vote share in Haryana — from 58% in the Lok Sabha polls, the party’s vote share declined by 22% in the recently concluded state elections.
+In Maharashtra, the NDA won 41 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats while the Congress managed just 5. Cut to assembly polls — the BJP-Shiv Sena combine won 161 seats, 24 less than 2014. Both NCP and Congress have made a comeback.
+The party’s vote share was 27.59% in the Lok Sabha polls, which fell to 25.7% in the current assembly elections. The Shiv Sena which saw a rise in vote share in the Lok Sabha polls also witnessed a drop in the current polls.
+There has clearly been a shift in how voters saw differentiated both parties in the national and the state election.
+===2019 Dec===
+====Congress in power in 7 states====
+[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/with-jharkhand-victory-congress-grabs-power-in-7th-state/articleshow/72944082.cms Dec 23, 2019 ''Times of India'']
+NEW DELHI: The victory of the JMM-Congress alliance in Jharkhand has come as a moral booster for opposition unity and for the grand old party seeking to become relevant again in Indian politics after suffering two successive defeats in general elections.
+Party leaders feel that the BJP is not invincible and can be defeated if like-minded parties get together. This, they feel, has been proved right in some states and the experiment can be implemented in upcoming polls.
+The poll results indicate that local and real issues of farm crisis, economy and unemployment have found more resonance at the ground and that bodes well for the opposition in future polls to win back states from the BJP.
+The Jharkhand poll results also show that the caste equations against BJP are consolidating. A Congress leader said the BJP has lost the support of tribals by installing a non-tribal chief minister in the tribal dominated state.
+Tough the Congress has returned to power in seven states with the latest victory in Jharkhand, its last two successes have come primarily with the support of allies.
+While Congress is in power in the states of Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Puducherry on its own, it has come to power in Maharashtra and Jharkhand jointly with the support of its allies Shiv Sena and NCP and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.
+Party leaders feel the latest victory in Jharkhand is a lesson taught by the people of the state to the "arrogance" of the BJP and its leadership. Some feel it is also the defeat of BJP's "corruption".
+They feel the alliance of like-minded parties in some states can bring opposition unity in states and oust the BJP from power.
+Congress leader and incharge for Jharkhand affairs, RPN Singh said the Congress and the alliance leaders raised the local issues of unemployment, farm distress, economic distress and increased debts and these issues touched the people of Jharkhand, who came out in favour of the alliance.
+"We raised the issues of Jharkhand which are also the issues of the people of India. Unemployment, farm distress, economic crisis and rising debts, starvation deaths are issues that touched the people of Jharkhand. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah tried to divert and distract from the real issues but that failed to cut ice with the common people," Singh told PTI.
+On opposition unity, he said it worked out well on the ground as workers of the alliance partners performed unitedly at all levels that gave good results.
+"The opposition unity and better coordination can be replicated in other state elections too and this will give positive results," he said.
+Party leaders feel the opposition needs to work closely and grab power in states through better coordination in state elections.
+With Jharkhand joining the growing list of states slipping out of BJP's rule, the party now governs mere 35 per cent of the country's landmass in comparison to over 71 per cent during its peak in 2017 when it was in power in the entire Hindi-speaking heartland.
+Its string of losses in states despite the massive victory in the April-May Lok Sabha elections may force the party's top brass to revisit its strategy for the assembly polls as it prepares for the upcoming battles in Delhi and Bihar.
+====Performance of BJP, state-wise====
+[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/with-jharkhand-loss-bjp-footprint-shrinks-to-half-from-2017-peak/articleshow/72940828.cms Dec 23, 2019 ''Times of India'']
+NEW DELHI: With Jharkhand joining the growing list of states slipping out of BJP's rule, the party now governs mere 35 per cent of the country's landmass in comparison to over 71 per cent during its peak in 2017 when it was in power in the entire Hindi-speaking heartland.
+Its string of losses in states despite the massive victory in the April-May Lok Sabha elections may force the party's top brass to revisit its strategy for the assembly polls as it prepares for the upcoming battles in Delhi and Bihar. The percentage of population being governed by the BJP in the states, either on its own or with its allies, now stands at around 43 per cent from over 69 per cent two years back, data analysis show.
+What may be of more concern to the party is that its graph in state polls has been on a steady decline since 2018 when it lost its bastions of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh besides Rajasthan, and its huge victory in the Lok Sabha elections this year has not translated into gains in states.
+Political watchers believe that the BJP may have to reconsider its tactic of backing leaders from non-dominant communities in assembly elections, as consolidation of Jat, Maratha and tribal votes against it is seen to be one of the reasons behind its below par performance in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand respectively.
+Opposition parties did much better than expected in Haryana and Maharashtra, even though the BJP emerged as the single largest party in both the states even while losing many seats compared to its previous tally.
+The party joined hands with rival Jannayak Janata Party to form the government in Haryana but was outsmarted in Maharashtra by the rival Congress-NCP alliance which joined hands with longtime BJP ally Shiv Sena to come to power at the saffron party's expense.
+If the Haryana and Maharashtra results gave the BJP something to cling to, its defeat in Jharkhand was absolute as for the first time since the state's formation the party has not emerged as the single largest party.
+The BJP always emerged as the single largest party in Jharkhand, once jointly with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).
+Its face and incumbent chief minister Raghubar Das also appeared headed to defeat to BJP rebel Saryu Roy.
+In all three state which have gone to the polls since Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the BJP to a landslide win in the general election, the party's vote share has fallen by big margins compared to the Lok Sabha polls.
+The saffron party's vote share was more than 55 per cent in Jharkhand and 58 per cent in Haryana in the Lok Sabha elections. However, it slumped to 33 per cent and 36 per cent respectively in the assembly polls in these two states, held barely a few months after the general elections.
+Significantly, the party has suffered losses in states at a
+time when it has been successful in fulfilling its longstanding ideological promises, including nullifying Article 370, criminalising the practice of triple talaq and enacting Citizenship Amendment Act.
+The Supreme Court's verdict in favour of building a Ram Temple in Ayodhaya was also a big boost to the BJP.
+Top party leaders in election rallies spoke at length about these "achievements" under the Modi government but the voting returns have been less than what they might have expected.
+==2019-23==
+[[File: The performance of the NDA and INDIA alliances in all assembly elections held between 2019 and 2023.jpg| The performance of the NDA and INDIA alliances in all assembly elections held between 2019 and 2023 <br/> From: [https://epaper.indiatimes.com/article-share?article=17_03_2024_010_013_cap_TOI  March 17, 2024: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+'' The performance of the ND A and INDIA alliances in all assembly elections held between 2019 and 2023 ''
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
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+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1
+]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+==2021==
+===Highlights===
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2021%2F05%2F03&entity=Ar00102&sk=D23554C1&mode=text  May 3, 2021: ''The Times of India'']
+In the 1990s, regional parties chipped away at Congress’s hold on power, with the United Front government marking the high point of the process, vastly enhancing the clout they first wielded during the V P Singh-led coalition, propped up from outside by BJP and Left Front. They were part of the power equation when Congress-led UPA held office and have proved resilient even after PM Modi won back-to-back Lok Sabha majorities.
+States along the east coast present an unbroken line of non-BJP, non-Congress parties who have successfully held office, repeatedly winning elections. The success of Mamata Banerjee and M K Stalin is part of this picture with Pinarayi Vijayan adding to the score in this round of polls. CPM, after its marginalisation in the rest of the country, looks more like a regional formation now.
+The most watched contest was Bengal where the scale of TMC’s win has buried BJP’s hopes. In Stalin, DMK has found a new icon and a successor to M Karunanidhi. Vijayan’s dominance over Kerala and his party is sealed with the win as several seniors will no longer pose a challenge to him. Elsewhere, the MVA government in Maharashtra is led by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, a regional entity.
+''' BJP yet to find success formula for south & east '''
+Held together with the aim to keep BJP out of office in Maharashtra, MVA is a serious hurdle for the saffron party. MVA constituent NCP, for all practical purposes, is also a party limited to the state. NDA’s preponderance has denied RJD power in Bihar but neighbouring Jharkhand has a JMMled government.
+The scenario changes when it comes to national polls, with Modi proving to be a strong vote aggregator. BJP has made gains in Odisha but BJD has not been swept away.
+In 2019 LS polls, DMK dominated Tamil Nadu and Sunday’s result can be seen as a continuation of that trend. YSRCP and TRS have done well in Lok Sabha polls too.
+The south and eastin particular present challenges to BJP even though it continues to gain in vote share and legislative strength.
+BJP surprised Mamata by winning 18 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, but she has now struck back.
+===B===
+[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kochi/keralas-health-minister-k-k-shailaja-tops-states-margins/articleshow/82364885.cms   May 3, 2021: ''The Times of India'']
+This round of assembly elections had many firsts, not the least among them being Mamata Banerjee emerging as the first female CM of a major state to win a third successive term in office.
+While she did that in part by completely decimating the Left and Congress – a blank slate for them in Bengal being another first – the Left chalked up its own first by winning a second successive term in Kerala and that too with an even bigger win than five years ago, 99 seats compared to 91.
+===Losers and winners===
+BJP matched its highest-ever tally in Tamil Nadu of four seats and skyrocketed from just three assembly seats to 77 in West Bengal, but sunk back to no seats in Kerala, a state where it had hoped to emerge as a significant third force.
+In a year in which Covid has hogged the headlines, it is telling that health minister K K Shailaja or Shailaja Teacher as she is popularly known, had the highest margin in Kerala of nearly 61,000 votes with CM Pinarayi Vijayan (incidentally the oldest of the CMs in this round) a distant second on this count.
+In a contest that was so one-sided in Bengal, it is a measure of BJP’s social engineering efforts that in the 84 reserved seats, the party almost equalled Trinamool Congress’s (TMC’s) tally winning 41 and losing 43 to TMC.
+The Bengal poll results also meant that the state has lived up to its reputation of giving a party or front a long rope. Congress governed for the first two decades after Independence, the Left for over three decades and now Mamata Banerjee is guaranteed at least 15 years in office.
+=== Voter schism===
+[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/right-and-wrong/bjp-owes-both-assam-win-and-bengal-defeat-to-voter-schism/        Swapan Dasgupta / BJP owes both Assam win and Bengal defeat to voter schism / May 15, 2021/ ''The Times of India'']
+…It is important to flag some of the issues arising from the verdicts in West Bengal and Assam where incumbent governments were re-elected with conclusive majorities. These are likely to have a significant bearing on the region’s future.
+The striking feature of the voting behaviour in Bengal and Assam was the deepening sectarian fault lines. In both states, the electorate was sharply polarised along Hindu-Muslim lines. The schism may not be so apparent at the macro level. In Assam, for example, the BJP-led coalition secured 44.5% votes while the Congress-led Mahajot that included Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF, Bodoland People’s Front and the Left parties was narrowly behind with 43.3%. In Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s AITC was ahead of the BJP by a comfortable 9.8%— 47.9 % to 38.1.
+These statistics may prompt a facile conclusion that both sides in Assam and Mamata in Bengal transcended religious identity and that bread-and-butter concerns prevailed. However, a disaggregated reading of the results — as gleaned from the authoritative CSDS-Lokniti surveys — tells a different story.
+''' The sectarian schism is most vivid in Bengal. ''' Mamata may have won an emphatic victory over the BJP and obliterated the Left Front and Congress but her triumph owes almost entirely to the solid support she received from the state’s Muslim community. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the AITC secured 70% of all Muslim votes, and this rose to 75% this election. Since Muslims comprise an estimated 30% of the state’s population, with an estimated voter turnout of three per cent above the state average, Mamata’s over-dependence on the minority community for her big victory is obvious.
+The contrast with how Hindus in Bengal voted last month is instructive. CSDS-Lokniti estimated that 50% of Hindu voters preferred the BJP and only 39% sided with Mamata. Although the choice of the BJP by Hindu voters fell from the high of 57% in 2019, the party led decisively over the AITC among Dalits and Backward Castes, and less conclusively among Adivasis. The BJP’s lead over Mamata was narrowest among upper caste Hindus, indicating that the ‘secular’ misgivings over the BJP are largely a bhadralok phenomenon. In other sections of Hindu society, a subaltern Hindutva has developed roots.
+In Assam, where the Muslim population was 34.2% in 2011, 81% of the community voted for the Congress-led Mahajot. The NDA secured 11% support in the Muslim community. This included a quarter of Assamese-speaking Muslims. The Bengali-speaking Muslims — the main target of the past anti-foreigner movements — were rock solid in supporting the Mahajot.
+The quantum of Muslim support for the Mahajot in Assam and Mamata in Bengal was nearly the same. What made the critical difference in Assam was the bigger Hindu consolidation. The CSDS-Lokniti findings suggest that as much as 67% of all Hindus in Assam sided with the BJP-led alliance; the Mahajot secured only 19% support, a steep fall from the 32% that supported the Congress in 2016. The support for the BJP was quite marked among Bengali-speaking Hindus, mainly in the Barak Valley. As much as 74% of this community supported the BJP, not least on account of the Citizenship Amendment Act…
+'' (Dasgupta was a BJP candidate in the Bengal elections) ''
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+==2017-22==
+===2019-21: electoral  verdicts===
+[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/modi-2-0-regional-leaders-power-opposition-to-bjp-as-congress-struggles-to-revive/articleshow/83087470.cms  Areeba Falak, May 31, 2021: ''The Times of India'']
+NEW DELHI: On May 30, 2019, Narendra Modi took oath as India’s Prime Minister to serve a second consecutive term in office. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections saw the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance decimate the opposition in several parts of the country.
+The BJP not only bettered its 2014 performance but also created a record by winning a majority on its own.
+The first two years of the Modi 2.0 government has seen the BJP successfully divide the opposition to get the support of important regional parties for key legislation in Parliament.
+While Congress continues to struggle to get its act together and make any meaningful impact, it is the regional leaders who are now leading the fight against the BJP.
+''' Here’s a look at the status of opposition parties in the last two years. '''
+'' Congress ''
+Congress is the largest constituent party of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). However, it has lost every state election since 2019 barring the ones where it contested as a minority partner by forging regional alliances.
+The only states where Congress could make a comeback in assembly polls are Maharashtra and Jharkhand. But in both these states, it is the junior partner of regional allies.
+In Maharashtra, Congress joined hands with its ideological opponent the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to form the government.
+In Jharkhand, Congress allied with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) to form a coalition government.
+In Tamil Nadu, the Congress managed to piggyback on the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which scripted an impressive win to return to power.
+In West Bengal, the Congress, which aligned with the Left, drew a blank and was completely uprooted in a high-pitched battle between the TMC and the BJP.
+In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), failed to defeat the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) despite the state's history of alternating between the two fronts.
+In Assam, the Congress-led an alliance of eight parties called ‘Mahajot’ but failed to unseat the BJP-led NDA government, which won a second consecutive term in the state.
+In Puducherry, the Congress-led UPA government lost twice since 2019. First, the Congress-DMK government lost the trust vote in 2020 and then in 2021 elections, conceded the state to NDA.
+''' Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) '''
+In the 2019 general elections, DMK was the only party in the UPA alliance that single-handedly reduced the footprint of NDA’s partners in the Lok Sabha elections.
+The DMK won 24 of 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, a massive jump from zero seats it won in 2014.
+In the 2021 assembly election, DMK registered a landslide victory after spending a decade as the largest opposition party in the state assembly.
+In addition to Tamil Nadu, the DMK also increased its tally in 2021 Puducherry assembly election from two to six.
+''' Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party '''
+The SP and BSP, who were long-term rivals in Uttar Pradesh, came together to form a ‘Maha’-gathbandhan ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to take on the BJP. However, a dismal performance in the general election and failure to dent the BJP in UP put an end to the short-lived alliance.
+Since then, both parties have failed to make much of a mark.
+Outside UP, the SP won two seats in the 2019 Maharashtra assembly election. It joined the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government led by the Shiv Sena.
+Other than Maharashtra, the UP-based SP has not managed any victory in any other assembly election since 2019.
+However, ahead of assembly elections next year in UP, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party has performed very well in the three-tiered panchayat polls held in May 2020.
+The panchayat polls are not fought on party symbols, however, SP-backed candidates won on more than 1,000 seats compared to the BJP which could register wins in only 800 seats.
+Since 2019, the BSP contested in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Delhi assembly elections. However, it didn’t win a single seat in any of these states.
+In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, the BSP contested on 80 seats and won one seat with a 1.5 per cent vote share.
+In the UP panchayat elections, the BSP won only a little over 300 seats.
+'' Trinamool Congress (TMC) ''
+The Mamata Banerjee-led TMC scripted history in Bengal as she defeated a very determined and aggressive BJP in the just-concluded assembly elections. The BJP used its full might to unseat Mamata, but failed. While the BJP has made huge inroads in the state winning over 70 seats, Mamata has emerged as one of the strongest regional leaders.
+Mamta’s latest victory in her home state has perhaps further added to her credentials to lead an anti-BJP front in the 2024 general elections.
+'' Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) ''
+Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is the undefeated champion of Delhi, having convincingly defeated the BJP.
+The AAP won 62 of 70 seats in the 2020 assembly elections with a vote share of 53. 5 per cent.
+This makes AAP one of the few regional bigwigs who have been able to hold onto their home turf against the BJP.
+However, its performance in the Lok Sabha elections has been disappointing.
+'' Left Front ''
+While the presence of the Left parties in the country is on the decline, the CPM, one of the leading constituents of the Left Front, led by Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala scripted history by defeating the Congress-led UDF to retain power.
+The CPM not just defeated the Congress, but also countered an aggressive BJP challenge in Kerala.
+The only other state where Left parties are part of the government is Tamil Nadu where several Centre-Left leaning parties formed the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) under DMK’s leadership.
+In West Bengal, the Left Front suffered one of its worst defeats in the 2021 assembly elections after failing to win even a single seat.
+'' Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) ''
+In the 2019 general election, TRS had contested all 17 Lok Sabha seats and could win only nine, two seats less than its 2014 tally.
+Whereas, the BJP, which did not form any alliance in the state, won four seats on its own. The BJP’s gain in the 2019 LS election was a setback for the TRS as BJP was not even in opposition to TRS in the 2018 assembly elections.
+However, in urban local body polls concluded in April 2021, the pink party swept all municipal corporations with Congress coming second and BJP stood a distant third.
+The TRS won 181 of the 248 divisions and wards in two municipal corporations and five municipalities.
+'' Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) ''
+The Andhra Pradesh-based party has been on a winning spree for the past two years.
+The YSR Congress swept the 2019 general election in Andhra, the 2019 Andhra Pradesh assembly election and the 2021 Andhra Pradesh urban local body elections.
+The 10-year-old party was founded by YS Jaganmohan Reddy after he broke away from the Congress party.
+Strengthening its hold on the state, the YSR Congress also swept the urban local bodies in 2021 by winning in all 12 municipal corporations and 54/55 municipal councils.
+'' Biju Janata Dal (BJD) ''
+The Odisha-based BJD is a regional party that does not subscribe to any political ideology and has cited the development of Odisha as its primary goal.
+In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Naveen Patnaik-led party saw a significant reduction in its seat share. It managed to win just 12 out of the 21 seats in 2019. In 2014, it had won 20.
+The party, however, managed to hold on to power in the assembly elections that were held simultaneously.
+Moreover, its vote share remained consistent in both general and assembly elections
+Now, both the BJP and BJD have their eyes set on the panchayat polls scheduled in 2022. The BJP is planning to build on its 2019 successes while the BJD is planning to use its development poll plank.
+===2017-22: Regional parties hold their own, BJP gains ground, Cong losses mount===
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=20_03_2022_009_012_toim_TOI  March 20, 2022: ''The Times of India'']
+[[File: Party-wise seats won in the four rounds of state assembly polls, 2017-22.jpg|Party-wise seats won in the four rounds of state assembly polls, 2017-22 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=20_03_2022_009_012_toim_TOI  March 20, 2022: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+Over the last four cycles of assembly elections spread over two decades, BJP has made significant gains in both seats and vote share while the Congress, Left and BSP – the other three big political forces at the beginning of this period – have lost ground.
+ Others as a group have not just held their own, but gained a little in seats, a TOI analysis shows. That also means the combined tally of BJP and Congress at 2,064 is only a little higher than all the others together at 1,961.
+ The analysis revealed in terms of seats, BJP went a little down from 906 MLAs country-wide to 851 (excluding J&K) between the fi rst two cycles — 2002-2007 and 2007-2012. But since then it has made huge gains to touch 1,318 in the 2012-17 round and 1,314 in 2017-22, much of the gains coming in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, and the North-east.
+ The Congress meanwhile rose from 1,092 in 2002-07 to 1,192 in 2007-12, but then dropped sharply to 842 in 2012-17 and 750 in 2017-22, its losses mirroring the BJP’s gains in Maharashtra, the North-East and West Bengal.
+ The Left, which had over 400 seats in the 2002-07 cycle, has fallen steadily from 201 to 168 and then 122, thanks to its demise in West Bengal and Tripura. Similarly, BSP has shrunk from 226 to 102 to 31 and a mere 16 in the last cycle.
+The rest as a group have gained too from 1,400 in 2002-07 to 1,823 in 2017-22 with the increase driven mainly by two young parties – AAP and YSRCP – and the Trinamool.
+ Vote shares understandably have not changed as dramatically, though BJP has upped its share from around 18% to just over 29% while the Congress share has dropped from 25% to just over 18%. The most precipitous drops have been for Left and BSP, the former down from 7. 8% in 2002-07 to just 2. 6% now and the latter from 6% to 3. 1%. Again, all others put together have gained slightly and account for nearly half (46. 9%) the votes polled. Within this group, there are parties that gain at each other’s expense from one election to the next, like DMK and AIADMK or YSRCP and TDP, but they tend not to lose ground to one of the national parties.
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+==2022==
+===States' elections: The results===
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=11_03_2022_001_002_cap_TOI  March 11, 2022: ''The Times of India'']
+[[File: The results of the elections held in 2022 for the legislative assemblies of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh.jpg|The results of the elections held in 2022 for the legislative assemblies of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=11_03_2022_030_005_cap_TOI  March 11, 2022: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+'' The results of the elections held in 2022 for the legislative assemblies of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. ''
+Five years of double incumbency; memories of adevastating pandemic that killed and displaced thousands, dented growth, worsened the already-serious challenge of unemployment and triggered inflation;and an awkward retreat after a bruising confrontation with farmers. The odds could not have been loaded more adversely. Yet, PM Modi managed to defy them to lead BJP to a resounding 4:1 victory, in a performance that again attested to his appeal as the saffron talis- man and underlined BJP’s domination of Indian politics. On a day when Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP steamrolled its opponents to score a landslide win in Punjab, smashing the stubborn historical barrier that has hitherto restricted regional parties to their home ground, it was the BJP-led Modi that dwarfed the field elsewhere, its pre-eminence stamped starker than ever before. Thursday’s results mark an emphatic confirmation of BJP’s status as the frontrunner and undercut the narrati- ve that had gained ground, in the aftermath of the Bengal debacle, about Modi’s diminished ability to swing elections other than for the Centre. They also affirm the success of the effort to turn the party into a pro-poor platform with goodwill among large sections of women, as well as of the experiment to use transparent and efficient delivery of welfare schemes to dilute caste identities and subsume them into the larger Hindutva fold. UP now seems to have been transformed into the second Hindutva laboratory after Gujarat, though the state’s giant size is an obvious point of difference. Home to 80 Lok Sabha seats, it played a significant role in Modi’s back-to back LS majorities and the BJP’s success this time would naturally be reassuring to the party in the long run-up to the 2024 national elections.
+While BJP may have lost some seats compared with its overwhelming majority in 2019, it’s worth remembering that this is the first time in 70 years that a CM has returned to office. It bulldozed its way past the SP-RLD combine, which enjoyed the backing of the ‘farmer leaders’.
+====DECODING THE VERDICT====
+BJP’s second consecutive win in Uttar Pradesh carries an important message from the heartland — that the appeal of caste and minority mobilisation is fading. In a largely bipolar race, SP more than doubled its seats but hit a glass ceiling. On the other hand, BJP’s Hindutva Plus incorporates aspirations of OBCs and Dalits drawn to its cultural vision and development-welfare platform 2 Women voters mark their presence as a decisive force, seen to have backed BJP in UP and Uttarakhand. The higher turnout in the later phases of the UP polls seems to have beneﬁted BJP and factors like better law & order got a big thumbs-up from women in a state where maﬁa and goonda raj have often been the norm 3 Beneﬁciaries of welfare schemes rolled out by the Centre and BJPgoverned states have created a new and loyal vote bank that cuts across caste, reaching many middle-caste and Dalit homesteads. Free ration, cooking gas under Ujjwala, housing assistance, scholarships, transfers to farmer accounts and pensions have created a strong following 4 Lack of a cohesive alternative to BJP and PM Modi becomes more apparent as the party recovers from the 2021 West Bengal poll setback. Success in forming majority governments in the so-called swing states of Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur gives BJP an additional edge, accentuated by leadership tussles in the opposition and decline in the ability of Congress and the Gandhis to garner votes 5 Success in all states, barring Punjab, should give Modi government renewed energy to pursue reforms after having had to back down on the farm laws. May also give India greater clout to deal with foreign policy challenges as well as in negotiation of trade pacts
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+===The winners===
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=11_03_2022_029_012_cap_TOI  March 11, 2022: ''The Times of India'']
+''' MODI '''
+Emerges as the colossus who can still help swing tough elections in BJP’s favour. His popularity was a major factor in the party’s big win in the powerhouse of UP, where he rebuffed an attempt to dest abilise Yogi, and also in Uttarakhand. He plunged into the campaign in Manipur, and helped BJP score a hat-trick in Goa. The accomplishments look all the more striking because they were achieved against the backdrop of the pandemic, a lacerating farmers’ agitation, and rising inflation. They put him in good stead for the coming contests in Gujarat and HP, besides giving him the reassurance to move forward on his agenda, and the political capital to deal with the challenges thrown up by the Ukraine crisis and the lurking threats of the virus and inflation.
+''' YOGI ADITYANATH '''
+Yogi becomes the first CM of UP since 1952 to retain office after a full term — that too with a thumping majority — and joins the top tier of the saffron pantheon. Unlike five years ago, when he was a peripheral figure confined to Gorakhpur and adjoining districts and was put in the CM’s chair by Modi and Amit Shah, this election, to a very large extent, had turned into a referendum on his performance and personality, which together represent a powerful cocktail of hardline Hindutva, efficient delivery of welfare schemes, personal integrity and ‘tough’ crime control. He was already popular among Hindutva votaries outside UP. This victory has elevated him immensely
+''' AMIT SHAH '''
+The architect of the 2017 win, who had also masterminded the 2014 and 2019 saffron sweep of LS polls in the state, played a crucial role again. His outreach to Jats and frequent interventions helped stabilise nerves after a spate of highprofile defections, and made up for the organisational listlessness that threatened to undercut the gains from the goodwill for Modi-Yogi. His trademark micro-management and tireless energy were factors in the party’s performance in Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa as well
+''' ARVIND KEJRIWAL '''
+His appeal and promise of the ‘Delhi Model’ was the key factor in AAP’s massive win in Punjab. Unlike in Delhi, his party gets a full state, one which comes with police powers, to govern. The breakthrough makes AAP the first regional party to govern two states (DMK has been part of coalition governments in the tiny Union territory of Puducherry). That he pulled off the feat within a decade of AAP’s launch will galvanise his effort to cast himself as the national challenger to BJP, at the declining Congress’s cost
+''' BHAGWANT SINGH MANN '''
+There was nothing comical about the claim that the former ‘laughter challenge’ star made for being projected as AAP’s chief minister candidate in Punjab. The timing was perfect. Congress’s decision to switch to Charanjit Singh Channi, a Dalit, at the expense of Jat Sikhs has enhanced his importance as a member of the dominant community. The boldness paid off because of AAP’s need for a strong local face, clearing the way for him to take over as the first non-Congress, non-Akali CM in the state
+''' N BIREN SINGH '''
+The footballer who in his playing days won big tournaments has now captured a big trophy in the political arena as well. It is the first time in Manipur that a non-Congress government has retained office and with bigger numbers. The victory achieved under him should ensure political stability in this restive corner of India, besides helping BJP amplify the message of its overwhelming dominance over Congress
+''' PRAMOD SAWANT '''
+Survived the damage wrought by Covid, sabotage and dissension to help BJP hold on to enough numbers to make a bid for office despite Congress’s recovery. If his appointment as CM in the wake of Manohar Parrikar’s death looked fortuitous, the strong likelihood of his continuing in office looks a deserved reward from a party that had gambled on him. He has now come out of Parrikar’s shadow Illustrations: Ajit Ninan & Arya Praharaj
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+===The losers===
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=11_03_2022_001_002_cap_TOI  March 11, 2022: ''The Times of India'']
+Five years of double incumbency; memories of adevastating pandemic that killed and displaced thousands, dented growth, worsened the already-serious challenge of unemployment and triggered inflation;and an awkward retreat after a bruising confrontation with farmers. The odds could not have been loaded more adversely. Yet, PM Modi managed to defy them to lead BJP to a resounding 4:1 victory, in a performance that again attested to his appeal as the saffron talis- man and underlined BJP’s domination of Indian politics. On a day when Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP steamrolled its opponents to score a landslide win in Punjab, smashing the stubborn historical barrier that has hitherto restricted regional parties to their home ground, it was the BJP-led Modi that dwarfed the field elsewhere, its pre-eminence stamped starker than ever before. Thursday’s results mark an emphatic confirmation of BJP’s status as the frontrunner and undercut the narrati- ve that had gained ground, in the aftermath of the Bengal debacle, about Modi’s diminished ability to swing elections other than for the Centre. They also affirm the success of the effort to turn the party into a pro-poor platform with goodwill among large sections of women, as well as of the experiment to use transparent and efficient delivery of welfare schemes to dilute caste identities and subsume them into the larger Hindutva fold. UP now seems to have been transformed into the second Hindutva laboratory after Gujarat, though the state’s giant size is an obvious point of difference. Home to 80 Lok Sabha seats, it played a significant role in Modi’s back-to back LS majorities and the BJP’s success this time would naturally be reassuring to the party in the long run-up to the 2024 national elections.
+While BJP may have lost some seats compared with its overwhelming majority in 2019, it’s worth remembering that this is the first time in 70 years that a CM has returned to office. It bulldozed its way past the SP-RLD combine, which enjoyed the backing of the ‘farmer leaders’.
+===DECODING THE VERDICT===
+BJP’s second consecutive win in Uttar Pradesh carries an important message from the heartland — that the appeal of caste and minority mobilisation is fading. In a largely bipolar race, SP more than doubled its seats but hit a glass ceiling. On the other hand, BJP’s Hindutva Plus incorporates aspirations of OBCs and Dalits drawn to its cultural vision and development-welfare platform
+Women voters mark their presence as a decisive force, seen to have backed BJP in UP and Uttarakhand. The higher turnout in the later phases of the UP polls seems to have beneﬁted BJP and factors like better law & order got a big thumbs-up from women in a state where maﬁa and goonda raj have often been the norm
+Beneﬁciaries of welfare schemes rolled out by the Centre and BJPgoverned states have created a new and loyal vote bank that cuts across caste, reaching many middle-caste and Dalit homesteads. Free ration, cooking gas under Ujjwala, housing assistance, scholarships, transfers to farmer accounts and pensions have created a strong following
+Lack of a cohesive alternative to BJP and PM Modi becomes more apparent as the party recovers from the 2021 West Bengal poll setback. Success in forming majority governments in the so-called swing states of Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur gives BJP an additional edge, accentuated by leadership tussles in the opposition and decline in the ability of Congress and the Gandhis to garner votes
+Success in all states, barring Punjab, should give Modi government renewed energy to pursue reforms after having had to back down on the farm laws. May also give India greater clout to deal with foreign policy challenges as well as in negotiation of trade pacts
+[[Category:History|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:India|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+[[Category:Pages with broken file links|INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDS
+INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1]]
+[[Category:Politics|P INDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY, 1947 ONWARDSINDIA: A POLITICAL HISTORY,
+]]
+==2023==
+===The elections of May===
+====Briefly====
+Karnataka: the Congress won the state assembly elections
+Meghalaya, Sohiong: UDP, United Democratic Party won the seat in the assembly
+Odisha, Jharsuguda: The BJD retained the assembly seat defeating BJP
+Punjab: Jalandhar: the Aam Aadmi Party won the parliamentary seat, defeating the Congress which had held the seat for 24 years
+Uttar Pradesh: Apna Dal S defeated Samajwadi Party for the assembly seat of  Suar in Rampur
+Uttar Pradesh: the BJP won all 17 mayoral elections an improved its tally in other local bodies elections.
+===The BJP and South India===
+[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=14_05_2023_015_005_cap_TOI  May 14, 2023: ''The Times of India'']
+[[File: The BJP and South India, Political history, 2015- 23.jpg|The BJP and South India, Political history, 2015- 23 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=14_05_2023_015_005_cap_TOI  May 14, 2023: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+In a crucial year packed with assembly elections, BJP and its allies managed to maintain their hold in the three North-Eastern states that voted in February but the saffron party’s juggernaut was halted in Karnataka, the only major southern state where it was in ofﬁce. Of the ﬁve states left to vote this year, BJP is in ofﬁce in Madhya Pradesh and runs Mizoram with ally MNF whereas in 2017 it was running Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh as well on its own. A look at the changing power balance across India since 2015
+===The Elections of November===
+====BJP Wins 3 states, Congress 1, Mizoram Elects ZNP====
+[https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/election-results-rajasthan-chhattisgarh-madhya-pradesh-bjp-congress-9053060/ Liz Mathew, Dec 4, 2023: ''The Indian Express'']
+Riding on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and his guarantees blending welfare politics and development with Hindutva, the BJP Sunday swept the Hindi heartland in key state elections, returning to power in Madhya Pradesh at the head of a landslide and ousting the ruling Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. It also announced its arrival in Telangana where the Congress toppled the ruling BRS.
+The emphatic wins in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where leader after leader credited Modi for the party’s impressive showing, also raise questions about the leadership of the Congress, especially Rahul Gandhi, and the role they seek in the Opposition INDIA bloc to take on the BJP and Modi. There are already rumblings within the alliance over how the Congress chose to go solo in the state elections, and the outcome Sunday will only add to the grievances of others in the bloc.
+Although the Congress has seized Telangana, the BJP has made its presence felt and is positioning itself as a key player in the southern state – BJP’s Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy defeated BRS chief and Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao and state Congress chief A Revanth Reddy, a frontrunner for the post of the next CM, in the Kamareddy constituency.
+The BJP vote share has gone up from 7 per cent to 14 per cent. Standing before a party banner thanking Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana, Modi too made special mention of Telangana and, at one point, even spoke in Telugu.
+“Over the last few years, this support has only been increasing and this trend will continue in the times to come. Our bond with Telangana is unbreakable and we will keep working for the people. I also appreciate the industrious efforts of each and every BJP karyakarta,” he said.
+“This is a historic, unprecedented victory. Today, the sentiment that the development of the states will lead to development of Bharat has won,” Modi said.
+In a post on X, he said, “We bow to the Janata Janardan”.
+The morale boost and the energy that these results provide, a BJP leader said, will be a springboard for forays into states identified for inroads in the countdown to the Lok Sabha polls.
+Senior BJP leader P Muralidhar Rao, party in-charge of Madhya Pradesh where it made a stunning comeback, told The Indian Express: “In this election, the BJP has once again proved to be a day-to-day functioning party. The BJP is visible, it’s moving on the ground while the Congress is absent there. The Congress debacle has not only weakened the Opposition INDIA bloc, it has enhanced the power of the BJP. The Modi brand has become unquestionable while Rahul Gandhi is weakened.”
+While the acceptance and popularity of Modi as a strong leader remain the biggest strength of the BJP, its organisational strength, the goodwill created by welfare schemes initiated by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh and the guarantees announced by the party in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and the Hindutva plank have paid off.
+BJP leaders also pointed out that women voters, a section that has become a major factor in the BJP’s electoral strategies, and the regained trust among tribals, a significant factor in the three heartland states, have contributed to its electoral performance.
+In his victory speech, Modi said: “Every poor person, every deprived person, every farmer, every tribal is thinking he has won today. Every woman is seeing her own victory. Every young person, every citizen is seeing this as a personal success.”
+Countering the Opposition move to frame the 2024 battle around caste census, Modi repeated his poll campaign line that he recognises only four castes: the poor, youth, women and farmers are the biggest castes for him, and only the uplift of these four will make the country developed.
+In the Assembly elections, the Congress banked heavily on a slew of promised guarantees while the BJP countered it with “Modi ki guarantee”. And this message was amplified again on the dais at the BJP headquarters where Modi spoke after the results Sunday. “Sapne nahni, haqeeqat bunte hain, tabhi toh sabh Modi ko chunte hein (He weaves realities not dreams, that’s why everyone chooses Modi)” – that was the line on the banner behind him.
+According to BJP leaders, the strong push from the party came in the four weeks before the voting on November 17. “It was almost like a surgical strike, but with our organisational strength and mobilisation capacity,” said a BJP leader who was involved with the election planning in Madhya Pradesh.
+Party sources pointed out that while Modi led the campaign in Madhya Pradesh, Union Home Minister Amit Shah took control of electioneering at the ground level.
+“In the last few weeks, we laid out our political strategies and micro-management to get the karyakartas to fight this election and snatch the win from the Congress, which was already celebrating the edge it had,” said another senior leader involved with the party strategy.
+The party central leadership’s move to field several high-profile leaders and MPs — including Union Ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste — and party general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya also worked.
+In Rajasthan, while Modi and his popularity remained its most significant weapon in its arsenal, the BJP’s campaign against what it called “appeasement politics” of the Ashok Gehlot government appeared to have helped the party in a state where over 90% of the population is Hindu. If there was lack of clarity about its own state leadership, it countered it with a campaign on the deepening differences between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot.
+In Chhattisgarh, despite the lacklustre approach of its state unit in the last five years, the party appeared to have been ready for a “decent” performance. What likely kept the BJP in contention here was the slew of promises it made just days ahead of the first phase of polling on November 7, including cooking gas cylinders at Rs 500 for poor families and Rs 12,000 per year financial assistance to married women. BJP leaders said there was “an instant positive reaction” to the promises.
+Now that the results are in, the BJP central leadership is expected to choose Chief Ministers in consultation with the elected members in the respective states. However, it is unlikely to ignore either Chouhan or Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan while choosing the leader, sources said.
+Both Chouhan and Raje remain popular leaders and they have significant support among the party candidates who have won, the sources said.
+==== Winners and losers====
+''' BIG WINNERS '''
+NARENDRA MODI | Modi was the face of BJP’s campaign with the party not declaring its CM names for MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. ‘MP Ke Mann Mein Modi’, the central theme in Madhya Pradesh, became the plank elsewhere as the party tried to leverage his popularity to get past obstacles of an unambitious unit in Chhattisgarh, fear of anti-incumbency in MP, and leaders who did little groundwork to back up their personal ambitions in Rajasthan, besides Congress’s ‘populist’ and ‘caste’ planks
+AMIT SHAH | Wins in MP and Chhattisgarh conﬁrm the ‘master strategist’ tag that he earned after scripting BJP’s sweep of UP in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. He chose the two states instead of Rajasthan, which has traditionally ousted the party in ofﬁce. The victories, especially in Chhattisgarh, can be attributed to his shrewd planning, morale boosting and stern ‘party comes ﬁrst’ message to self-obsessed local notables. His success removes any doubt as to who will run BJP’s 2024 Lok Sabha campaign
+SHIVRAJ SINGH CHOUHAN | BJP didn’t name him as its CM face in MP, but he remained at the centre of the party’s narrative about the state’s transformation into an agricultural powerhouse with decent infrastructure. He got the PM’s endorsement as a ‘lokpriya and karmath (popular and diligent)’ CM. His initiatives like ‘ladli behna’ and the resultant popularity among women were important factors in the victory. The result is a blow to his rivals in the party and might keep him in the CM’s chair, a prospect that had almost been ruled out
+REVANTH REDDY | Since the day he was appointed Telangana Congress chief, the slim, trim and aggressive Reddy stayed focused on targeting CM KCR and predicted BRS’s ouster. His outreach throughout the state boosted Congress, though his unilateral style threatened fragmentation in the party. The AICC intervened in time and a chastened Reddy disciplined himself while other leaders were accommodated in organisational roles
+J P NADDA | He assigned himself Rajasthan, where, the revolving-door pattern notwithstanding, BJP faced a challenge because of factional rivalries and Ashok Gehlot’s vigorous populism. He ensured the malcontents did not start mutinies and squabbles did not result in sabotage. The defeat of some of the senior lights and victory of rebels illustrate the enormity of the task he faced
+VASUNDHARA RAJE | The two-time CM didn’t give up when the BJP brass projected a ‘collective leadership’ model instead of making her the CM face. Impressive turnouts at her rallies showed she is the most popular Rajasthan BJP leader, strengthening her claim to a third stint as CM. However, her aloofness during Congress’s entire term, and inability to come to terms with the new BJP leadership and take people along, could go against her
+JYOTIRADITYA SCINDIA | Responsible for the fall of the Kamal Nath government in 2020, Scindia can gloat over the party’s performance in the Gwalior-Chambal region as most of the Congress MLAs there had joined the saffron fold with him. Coming after Priyanka Gandhi’s dig about his height, the result may taste even sweeter. He is seen as a candidate for the CM’s post because he is relatively young and his appointment would be a taunt to the Gandhis, to whose inner circle he once belonged
+''' BIG LOSERS '''
+BHUPESH BAGHEL | An aggressive politician and OBC face, Baghel ensured that Congress was connected to the ground through his ﬁve years at the helm and made farmers a big part of his voter outreach. But his tenure was marred by a power struggle with colleague TS Singh Deo, and the Centre’s allegations of corruption bothered him during his last two years. His conﬁdence in his own strategy and the party’s chances pre-empted any fresh thinking, and Congress ended with a poor showing in Chhattisgarh
+KCR | The man who exhumed the Telangana statehood demand, and turned it into political capital, ﬁnally fell to hubris. Insulated from the ground after a decade in ofﬁce, the Telangana CM erred in repeating his army of MLAs, and the perception that he was a BJP ally went against him. While he marginalised civil society, which had powered his rise, Congress successfully caricatured his term as rule by a ‘gang of four’
+KAMAL NATH/DIGVIJAYA SINGH | A Delhi player, Nath stayed put in Bhopal after the 2020 coup that toppled his government, and micromanaged Congress’s Madhya Pradesh campaign. But insiders say he was overbearing, didn’t give prominence to other leaders, and was not relentless in his campaigning. His banking on anti-incumbency to win, refusing to accept the revamped party strategy of candidate selection, and not using the designated pollster, proved disastrous. Singh was the nuts-and-bolts man of the organisation, but his clashes with Nath created the impression of a disjointed campaign. His complacency and frozen ideas about candidates and strategy revealed a lack of touch with new realities
+ASHOK GEHLOT | Long dubbed ‘jaadugar (wizard)’, the Congress leader promised to buck Rajasthan’s tradition of ousting governments every ﬁve years. His exhaustive campaign for the last one year, promise of ‘mehengai rahat’ and ‘7 guarantees’ sought to blunt anti-incumbency and BJP’s communal push. They didn’t win him the match but staved off a rout. Gehlot’s insistence on repeating sitting MLAs will come in for serious scrutiny in the party, especially when Congress came this far in the otherwise lost battle
+RAHUL GANDHI/PRIYANKA GANDHI VADRA | After sitting out Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, Rahul returned to the campaign trail in Karnataka where his voter outreach complemented the local Congress satraps and delivered a massive win. Rahul and Priyanka were Congress’s lead campaigners in this round of polls, adding weight to the party’s populist promises by targeting PM Modi over inﬂation and unemployment, and alleged patronage of the Adani group, while also promoting Rahul’s new ‘caste census’ theme. The siblings addressed dozens of rallies, but failed to bring dividends they were conﬁdent about. The result raises doubts about the effectiveness of Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, which was widely credited for the Karnataka victory
+SACHIN PILOT | The young Congress leader turned from resentful rebel to champion campaigner as he toured his stronghold of eastern Rajasthan and other seats to shore up Congress’s fortunes. Though Pilot was also in demand in other election-bound states, particularly MP, all eyes were on whether he could deliver Gujjar and youth votes, besides other demographics. In the ﬁnal analysis, he couldn’t
+====Tribal parties====
+[https://indianexpress.com/article/india/election-results-2023-live-updates-rajasthan-madhya-pradesh-chhattisgarh-telangana-mizoram-vote-counting-9051557/  Jayprakash S Naidu, Vibha B Madhava, Srishti Kapoor, Dec 5, 2023: ''The Indian Express'']
+Assembly Election Results 2023 Highlights: Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee president A Revanth Reddy will be the next Chief Minister of the southern state as party President Mallikarjun Kharge Tuesday appointed him as the leader of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP). The decision came following a meeting of the top party leadership, days after the Congress defeated the BRS by bagging 64 seats in the southern state. Revanth was appointed the TPCC chief in June 2021. Since then, he has been strengthening his image as a combative Opposition leader and has been credited with the party’s victory.
+In Mizoram, after Zoramthanga People’s Movement (ZPM)’s victory, the new government is set to be sworn in on December 8. Former IPS officer Lalduhoma is set to become the new Chief Minister of the state. The  73-year-old who won his election from the constituency of Sercchip by 2,982 votes will be the state’s first new CM in three decades.
+Meanwhile, with three resounding wins, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s next task is to decide on the three chief ministers for Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The big question remains whether the central leadership will repeat Shivraj Singh Chouhan — who beat the purported “fatigue factor” to win the elections for the BJP. In Rajasthan, veteran leader Vasundhara Raje, too, is eyeing another term. There have also been suggestions that the party could shift Raman Singh, Chouhan and Raje to the Centre to effect a complete generation shift in the state units, The Indian Express had reported.
+====By elections====
+'''Cong loses Nagaland bypoll to regional party'''
+Dimapur : Nagaland’s governing Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) won on Sunday a bypoll to the Tapi assembly constituency, reports Bhadra Gogoi. In a two-cornered contest, NDPP’s Wangpang Konyak beat Congress’s Wanglem Konyak by over 5,300 votes. The bypoll was held on November 7 after the death of previous Tapi MLA, NDPP’s Noke Wangnao. CM Neiphiu Rio congratulated Wangpang, NDPP workers and supporters.
+===Seats that changed parties===
+[[File: Seats that changed parties, MP, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, 2023.jpg|Seats that changed parties, MP, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, 2023 <br/> From: [https://epaper.indiatimes.com/article-share?article=05_12_2023_014_011_cap_TOI  Dec 5, 2023: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
+'''See graphic''':
+'' Seats that changed parties, MP, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, 2023 ''
+As many as 337 of the 638 seats that polled in these four states saw the party that won last time losing now. While the bulk of the changes obviously went in favour of the party that won the state, not all did. Here’s how the swapping worked. The shaded ( ) cells indicate the seats retained.
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Legislative Assemblies: India

Latest revision as of 17:33, 11 June 2024

Contents

[edit] Disciplinary action

[edit] Suspension of member beyond one session undemocratic

[edit] Dress code

[edit] Gujarat MLA in T-shirt evicted

[edit] Election results, trends: involving more than one state

[edit] Population and geography ruled by political parties, 1961-2021

[edit] 2008, 2013

[edit] 2011-2016: changing political landscape

[edit] 1993

[edit] The post-Babri ‘mini-general election’

[edit] Congress(I): A Badly Needed Reprieve

[edit] Bharatiya Janata Party: Charting a New Course

[edit] Janata Dal: Swallowing a Bitter Pill

[edit] 2012-16: `Others' got more seats than BJP + Cong in 30 polls

[edit] 2012-17: State assembly elections

[edit] The political map of India, 2012, 2017, 2018

[edit] 2014- 2020

[edit] 2014-19: BJP won most MLA seats, Cong not far behind

[edit] 2015-23

[edit] 2018-19: Which party ruled how many states

[edit] 2017

[edit] State assembly election results analysed

[edit] Perceived behaviour of castes, communities

[edit] 2018

[edit] Assembly elections in 5 states: BJP loses

[edit] State-wise results

[edit] Aam Aadmi Party’s performance

[edit] Assets, age, gender

[edit] BSP’s performance

[edit] Cong neutralised vote katuwas/ spoilers

[edit] NOTA (none of the above) reflects the public mood

[edit] MP: Nota votes dislodge 4 BJP ministers

[edit] Nota costs BJP dearly in Rajasthan

[edit] Rural and tribal areas; parliament and assembly seats

[edit] Vote share: BJP loses, but not only to Cong

[edit] Winners and losers

[edit] The meaning of the results

[edit] 2019

[edit] Lok Sabha elections

[edit] Region-wise: the strengths of various parties

[edit] Haryana, Maharashtra assembly elections; by elections

[edit] What the verdict means

[edit] Details

[edit] By elections: NDA wons 26 out of 51, Cong 12

[edit] 8 ministers defeated in Maha, 7 in Haryana; turncoats lose

[edit] Art 370 as a poll issue

[edit] BJP scores betters in NCR

[edit] The winners

[edit] BJP dips in Vidarbha (Maha), Cong rises in Haryana

[edit] Parties in office in states

[edit] Pre-election doles

[edit] Assembly elections, by-elections/ May

[edit] October elections: Five trends

[edit] 2019 Dec

[edit] Congress in power in 7 states

[edit] Performance of BJP, state-wise

[edit] 2019-23

[edit] 2021

[edit] Highlights

[edit] B

[edit] Losers and winners

[edit] Voter schism

[edit] 2017-22

[edit] 2019-21: electoral verdicts

[edit] 2017-22: Regional parties hold their own, BJP gains ground, Cong losses mount

[edit] 2022

[edit] States' elections: The results

[edit] DECODING THE VERDICT

[edit] The winners

[edit] The losers

[edit] DECODING THE VERDICT

[edit] 2023

[edit] The elections of May

[edit] Briefly

[edit] The BJP and South India

[edit] The Elections of November

[edit] BJP Wins 3 states, Congress 1, Mizoram Elects ZNP