Bihar: Assembly and council elections
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[[File: Bihar Assembly and parliamentary elections, 2010, 2014, 2015, performance of scheduled caste candidates.jpg| Bihar Assembly and parliamentary elections, 2010, 2014, 2015: Performance of scheduled caste candidates; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=09_11_2015_021_031_008&type=P&artUrl=Dalit-votes-Manjhi-fails-to-help-NDA-sail-09112015021031&eid=31808 ''The Times of India''], November 9, 2015|frame|500px]] | [[File: Bihar Assembly and parliamentary elections, 2010, 2014, 2015, performance of scheduled caste candidates.jpg| Bihar Assembly and parliamentary elections, 2010, 2014, 2015: Performance of scheduled caste candidates; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=09_11_2015_021_031_008&type=P&artUrl=Dalit-votes-Manjhi-fails-to-help-NDA-sail-09112015021031&eid=31808 ''The Times of India''], November 9, 2015|frame|500px]] | ||
[[File: Bihar assembly elections, 2010, 2015, the margin by which the winning candidates defeated the runners-up.jpg|Bihar assembly elections, 2010, 2015: The margin by which the winning candidates defeated the runners-up; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=09_11_2015_020_030_002&type=P&artUrl=MARGIN-TALK-09112015020030&eid=31808 ''The Times of India''], November 9, 2015|frame|500px]] | [[File: Bihar assembly elections, 2010, 2015, the margin by which the winning candidates defeated the runners-up.jpg|Bihar assembly elections, 2010, 2015: The margin by which the winning candidates defeated the runners-up; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=09_11_2015_020_030_002&type=P&artUrl=MARGIN-TALK-09112015020030&eid=31808 ''The Times of India''], November 9, 2015|frame|500px]] | ||
| + | [[File: Bihar assembly elections, 2010 and 2015, a constituency-wise map of which party won which seat.jpg|Bihar assembly elections, 2010 and 2015: A constituency-wise map of which party won which seat; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=09_11_2015_018_007_009&type=P&artUrl=Bros-Bihari-Plunge-BJP-Into-Chintan-09112015018007&eid=31808 ''The Times of India''], November 9, 2015|frame|500px]] | ||
=2015= | =2015= | ||
Revision as of 07:32, 15 November 2015
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This is a collection of articles archived for the excellence of their content. |
Contents |
Bihar poll toppers: 1951-2010
1951-2015: Caste composition of the Bihar Legislative Assembly
Bihar, Election trends, Assembly and Lok Sabha: 2005-2014
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2010: Bihar Assembly election
2010 elections: Victory margins
The Times of India, Oct 06 2015
Atul Thakur 48 seats saw win margins under 5k in 1010
Several close calls can add up to an electoral sweep
Even a contest that is largely bipolar and pro duces a decisive verdict in a state need not produce decisive mandates from seat to seat, as the 2010 polls in Bihar illustrate. An analysis of the 2010 results shows that the onesided verdict in which the JD(U)-BJP combine won 206 of the 243 seats against just 25 for the RJD-LJP alliance nevertheless saw a lot of close seat level contests.
In fact, the winning candidate got a majority of the votes polled in less than 10% of the seats. BJP won in 12 of these constituencies while JD (U) won 11. There were another 91 constituencies where the winning candidate polled between 40% and 50% of the valid votes.Of these, 47 seats went to the JD (U) while the BJP and RJD won in 32 and 11 such seats respectively .
It is interesting to note that in more than half the seats in a largely bipolar contest the winning candidate got less than 40% of the votes. Indeed, there were 29 constituencies where the winner got less than even 30% of the votes polled. Despite sweeping the elections, the winning candidates of the JD(U)-BJP alliance were more or less evenly distributed across all these ranges.
The closeness of the contests at the seat level is revealed also in the victory margins in the 2010 elections. There were 48 constituencies where the victory margin was less than 5,000 votes. The JD(U) won 17 of these seats, the RJD 12 and BJP 11.This clearly sugBATTL gests that even a marginal swing in BI the votes could have thrown up a significantly different outcome in terms of party tallies, though the overall re sult would not have changed.
The average margin was about 15,000 votes. In 145 seats, or about 60% of the total, the vic tory margin was less than this average of 15,000 votes. Interest ingly, in the 98 conEGROUND stituencies where HAR the margin was higher than the av erage the winning alliance was successful in all but one.
It is also instructive to note that despite the essentially bipolar nature of the contest, 35.4% of the votes polled did not go to either of the two major combines.The Congress won 8.4% and smaller parties and independents mopped up a sizeable 27%.
Clearly, therefore, what is bipolar at the state-wide level can become quite multi-cornered at the micro level. That explains why so much effort goes into micro managing the details.
2010-15
2015
The Times of India, Nov 09 2015
Landslide may spur more `secular' pacts
The Bihar election was billed as a grudge match between alliesturned-foes, as a virtual referendum on PM Modi's appeal, and as a fight between `secular' and `communal' forces. It also became about who was `Bihari' and `bahari' and a row over the DNA of the people of India's third most populous state. Most called it “too close to call“, exit polls were divided. There was nothing close about the verdict. Nitish Kumar on Sunday led the `secular' Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance to a landslide win over BJP-led NDA, avenging the humiliation Modi had inflicted on him in the Lok Sabha polls. This is the saffron alliance's second straight defeat -both crushing, but this one a lot more significant -after Delhi in February . MGB's stunning victory, which will whet the anti-BJP opposition's appetite for con frontation, represents a vote of confidence in Nitish's governance during his dec ade-long stint as chief min ister and could spur efforts to form Bihar-type `secular coalitions in other states.
The win on the eve of Di wali also marked a spectacu lar comeback for Lalu Prasad who had been in the politica doldrums after suffering de cisive defeats in consecutive state and central polls. After finishing third with a paltry 22 seats in the last elections he has emerged as the single largest player in the 243-strong House with a tally of 80.
While Nitish, who like Lalu is also an OBC (Other Back ward Caste; he's a Kurmi) projected development with social justice, the flamboyan Yadav chieftain unabashedly turned it into a backward vs forward caste struggle.
The win for Nitish, who now has a strong claim to be projected as the `secular' PM candidate in 2019, may signa the beginning of the cam paign for the next Lok Sabha polls, besides making things tougher for the government in Parliament. Lalu and Nitish as well as Rahul Gandhi, whose Congress rode on the coattails of the two Mandal warriors to return an astonishing high tally of 27 -the best since 1995 when it won 29 -all talked of a soon-to-be launched cam paign against the Centre.
Gulal leaves BJP workers red-faced
Early in the morning, BJP seemed to be leading, prompting bursting of crackers at its Patna HQ, even as workers applied colour on each other's faces. On TV, experts spoke of how Nitish had lost touch with voters. All that changed within a couple of hours, as celebrations gave way to disbelief and gloom.Many workers were seen hastily scrubbing colour off their faces.
BJP single-largest party by voteshare
BJP emerged as the single largest party in Bihar in terms of voteshare, getting almost 25% of the vote. However, this was largely due to the fact that it contested 157 seats, 56 more than Lalu Prasad's RJD, which finished as the secondlargest party with 18.6%. JD(U) was the only other party with voteshare in double digits, registering 16.6%.Independents got 9.4% votes.
Worst show by BJP in state in 10 years
With 53 seats this time around, BJP's seat share is its lowest in the last three Bihar assemblies.Ironically, JD(U)'s 71 seats are also its worst show since the OctoberNovember elections in 2005. RJD's 80 seats is its best performance since the state was divided in 2000. Cong put up its best show since 1995.
Nitish gets 5th innings as CM
Nitish Kumar will assume the office of Bi har CM for a record fifth time. He is also the second longest serving CM of the state after Congress's Sri Krishna Sinha (1947-61).
Nitish was CM for 8 days in 2000 and won two terms in 2005 and 2010. In May 2014, he in stalled Jitan Ram Manjhi but returned to the post in February this year. Jagannath Misra (Congress) and Bhola Prasad Shastri (Cong O & Cong) have each held the post thrice.
2|3rds majority for second straight time
The alliance fell just short of a 34ths majority but it's still the second straight election in which Bihar voters have handed a 23rds majority. In 2010, JD(U) BJP bagged 206 of 243 seats. Ex cept for Cong in 1951 and 1957 and Janata Party (1977), nobody else got a near-23rds majority.
Women candidates and women voter in Bihar Assembly polls
