India Meteorological Department
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Forecast models
Monsoon may be below par: IMD
TIMES NEWS NETWORK The Times of India
There are several models that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) refers to. For 2014 they issued forecasts by two such models. The monsoon mission model predicted 96% of the long period average while the ESSO IMD seasonal forecast showed 88% of the LPA.
The second model was very close in its assessment in 2013, However, “these are only experimental models and we cannot use their data with any kind of certainty.”
IMD has been periodically updating its methodology for the complex task of predicting the monsoon. The department, however, continues to battle the impression that its accuracy drops markedly when rains fail (see box).
In keeping with the latest updates from international agencies, IMD said that chances of an El Nino occurring in 2014 summer were high. “Latest forecast from a majority of the models indicate a warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific reaching to El Nino level during the southwest monsoon season, with a probability of around 60%,” the IMD said.
2013 was an ENSO neutral year — that is, there neither an El Nino nor its mirror opposite, La Nina. The southwest monsoon arrived 15 days before its normal date in June and continued till much after its scheduled date of withdrawal. Against a prediction of 98%, the country recorded an above-normal 106% rainfall.
