India: A political history, 1947 onwards
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Astrology and politics
Examining rival candidates' horoscopes
Vinod Khanal, Only in India? Netas study rivals' stars, Feb 6, 2017: The Times of India
Not just their own horoscope, some candidates in UP are checking how deep the competition is for them by getting astrologers to examine their rivals' fortunes as well.
Two prominent astrologers of the city said most of their clients are assuming BJP candidates as their immediate rival. Noted astrologer Fanindra Nath Tripathi said “every candidate wants to know the weak `grah' (planet) of their rivals“. Saying “minor problems can be set right with the help of `havan' and `grah shanti' rituals“, another astrologer is convinced that it is impossible for a candidate to win if the opponent's tars are stronger.“ Netas are known to seek astrologers' help to identify auspicious imes to flag off campaigns, to heck lucky colours, even for heir vehicles and also clothes hat help them impact voters.
But now matters have moved a step further. the trend was also noted by Narendra Giri, mahant, Baghambari Mutt and president, Akhil Bharatiya Akhara Parishad: Many astrologers are exam ning janma kundalis (natal hart) for information of a ontestant's rivals.“ He denies he is advising any candidate.
Forecast of poll results illegal: Election Commission
Mar 31, 2017: The Times of India
HIGHLIGHTS
This amounts to violation of Section 126A of Representation of the People Act, the Commission said
The Act bans dissemination of exit poll results between the start of polling and the end of polling for the last phase
All media are advised to refrain from telecasting/publishing similar programmes in future elections, it added
NEW DELHI: The Election Commission on Thursday held that dissemination of forecast of poll results in any manner, including by political analysts, astrologers or tarot card readers, during the period of exit poll ban was prohibited and amounted to violation of Section 126A of Representation of the People Act.
Pointing to some TV channels that broadcast programmes projecting the numbers of seats likely to be won by political parties during recent polls, EC said this was despite the provisions of Section 126A of the Representation of the People's Act that ban dissemination of exit poll results between the start of polling and the end of polling for the last phase. In its order issued on Thursday, EC made it clear that prediction of results of elections in any form, that is, by astrologers, tarot card readers or political analysts during the prohibited period was a violation of the spirit of Section 126A "which aims to prevent the electors of constituencies still going to polls from being influenced in their voting by such predictions about the prospects of various political parties".
"All media (electronic and print) are advised to refrain from telecasting/publishing similar programmes in future elections during the prohibited period under Section 126A to ensure free, fair and transparent election," ruled EC. "...Such attempts... to score brownie points against the competitors for merely commercial reasons do not behove well," it added.
State assembly elections
Population and geography ruled by political parties, 1961-2017
See graphic
2011-2016 changing political landscape
State assembly elections, 2012-17
See graphic.
Election symbols
Janata Party's symbols
See graphic
The (bi)cycle
Many have ridden the cycle to victory, Jan 17, 2017: The Times of India
Few elections symbols have been as bitterly fought over as the modest cycle.Much before the father-son duo of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav began their fight-to-the-finish in UP, the cycle was a subject of electoral dispute in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu too.
The 1996 Lok Sabha election campaign in Andhra Pradesh was marked by acrimony between rival Telugu Desam Party (TDP) factions led by the late N T Rama Rao's son-in-law N Chandrababu Naidu and his wife Lakshmi Parvathi. The EC had given the `cycle' symbol to Naidu. At public meetings, Parvati would often tell the crowd that they must vote for the `lion' because “the cycle has been stolen by thieves“.
Naidu had dethroned the superstar-CM in August 1995; the `coup' being planned in a defunct movie theatre, Basant Talkies, located in a small lane at Narayanaguda crossroads in Hyderabad. NTR's family stood by Naidu, along with a majority of MLAs, giving him the edge in the battle for the symbol. Naidu showed off more than 200 out of the state's 294 legislators which clinched the case in his favour.
In Tamil Nadu, Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), led by G K Moopanar, was allotted the `cycle' symbol after he quit Congress on the eve of the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in 1996. TMC, in DMK's company , romped home with a massive majority in the assembly and bagged all the Lok Sabha seats too.
After Moopanar's death in 2001, his son, former Union minister G K Vasan, merged the party with Congress. In 2014, he walked out of the party like his dad, and tried to revive TMC. Despite desperate efforts, Vasan could not get the `cycle' symbol. “The EC denied us the symbol citing its use in two other states,“ said Vasan. He had to settle for `coconut farm' as TMC's symbol in the 2016 elections, in which he drew a blank. TN chief electoral officer Rajesh Lakhoni said, “The `cycle' symbol was not allotted to TMC as it was allotted to SP, which was also contesting the assembly election in Tamil Nadu.“
In the early decades after Independence, the cycle was a totem of upward mobility in both the hinterland and urban India. Transistor, watch and cycle were three essentials in any wedding shopping list in north India. Even in recent years, it is a preferred gift for political parties. Ask Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, or, even Akhilesh.
It remains a desired election symbol too. Currently , the cycle is SP's symbol in UP and other states like Bihar and Uttarakhand, where the party enjoys a degree of influence.TDP in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, Jammu & Kashmir Panthers' Party in J&K, Kerala Congress in Kerala and Manipur People's Party in Manipur also use the symbol.
“While it is reserved for SP in UP , in other states it can be allotted to other parties as SP is not a national party like BJP and Congress, whose symbols cannot be given to any other party in any other state,“ said former CEC N Gopalaswami.
Political scientist Imtiaz Ahmed says that election symbols encapsulate a party's history. “Whoever gets the symbol after an intra-party warfare inherits all that the party has done in the past. Symbols give you legacy ,“ he said. In a country where over 25% are still illiterate, a symbol also becomes part of a voter's hardwired memory . “Many people still put their stamp on the ballot paper without looking at the party's name,“ he said.
In recent years, social media platforms such as WhatsApp are being used to communicate with the voter in remote areas. Yet symbols remain vital even today , says former JNU professor Dipankar Gupta. “Even if 20% of potential voters don't know about a new symbol, it becomes a matter of concern for the party ,“ he said.
Raths (chariots), 1982-2016
See graphics on this page and on the page Samajwadi Party
The Times of India
The Times of India
The Times of India
`Others' got more seats than BJP + Cong in 30 polls (2012-16)
The Times of India, May 21 2016
That BJP has gradually replaced Congress as the dominant party in Indian politics and that recent assembly polls have accelerated that trend is obvious, but the reality is that between them, the two national parties have won less than half the seats and votes polled in the latest assembly polls in 28 states (excluding Telangana, which was part of Andhra Pradesh when the last elections were held there) and two union territories, Delhi and Puducherry . In these 30 elections dating from 2012 and including the fi ve just concluded, a total of 4,117 seats were up for grabs.BJP has secured a decisive lead over Congress by winning 1,051 of them against the latter's 871. That makes a combi ned total of 1,922 seats. But all other parties put together have won 2,195 seats, or more than half the total. Seat tallies can be a mis leading indicator of po litical dominance. This is not only because a party can get a lot of votes but hardly any seats in the first past the post system, but also because an MLA in, say, Sikkim, represents a much smaller population than one in Uttar Pradesh but both count as one in the tally.
A better indicator, therefore, is how many votes each party has won. Here again, BJP's combined tally of 12.6 crore votes from the 30 polls beats the Congress' 11.8 crore, even if the gap seems crore, even if the gap seems much smaller than in the seats. Again, though, the rest with 33.5 crore votes comfortably beat the combined tally of the two big national parties. BJP and Congress put together have won 42% of the votes polled, 58% going to the rest.
Some of this 58% has, of course, gone to allies of BJP or Congress, like Shiv Sena or Akalis in the case of BJP, or DMK and RJD in the case of Congress. Nevertheless, these are not votes won by the two national parties on their own.
More importantly , the bulk of the 33.5 crore votes polled by the rest has gone to parties like Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Trinamool Congress, Biju Janata Dal, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Left in Kerala or Tripura which are not aligned with either of the two national parties.
2016: Highlights of the year
The Times of India, January 1, 2017
1. India-China relationship: Relations between India and China in 2016 continued to be complicated. China's protection for Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Muhammad chief Masood Azhar, its opposition to India's membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, its plans to construct dams on upper reaches of the Brahmaputra, and territorial disputes at the Line of Actual Control are among the contentious issues that strain the China-India relationship.
Former Tata Group chairman Cyrus Mistry's (right) ouster, and the ongoing feud between Mistry and interim Tata chairman Ratan Tata, are two other major events that occurred in 2016.
2. Demonetisation: Demonetisation, note ban, currency ban - whatever you wish to call it, this was easily the most significant event of 2016 in India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the nation on November 8 that the old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes (picture) would be removed from circulation. The move created a cash crunch, which the government made efforts to ease - by releasing new Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 notes, and creating incentives for digital transactions. A 50-day window during which citizens could deposit old notes at banks ended on December 30.
3. Cashless economy: Ever since demonetisation was announced, the government has taken steps to promote digital transactions and a cashless economy. For example, it launched lucky draws with prizes for both consumers and businessmen who use cashless transactions, and doubled the balance limit of Prepaid Payment Instruments. The Finance Ministry announced eleven mesures to promote digital payments, including discounts on purchases of petrol and diesel. And finally, Prime Minister Modi launched a digital payments app, Bharat Interface for Money or BHIM, on December 30.
4. GST: In August, the Parliament passed the landmark Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill, which aims to create a unified market by doing away with inter-state tax barriers. However, there's been an impasse in the GST Council (picture) over the division of authority between assessing authorities of centre and states, and the issue will be taken up together at the council's meeting on January 3-4, 2017.
5. Fast end by Iron Sharmila: In August, Manipuri human rights activist Irom Sharmila ended a 16 year fast that she'd begun to protest against the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. She later created her own political party - the People's Resurgence and Justice Alliance.
6. Death of J. Jayalalitha: Former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and All India Anna Dravida Munntra Kazhagam supremo J Jayalalithaa, an icon of Dravidian politics, breathed her last on December 5. She was buried next to her mentor, former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M G Ramachandran, who also starred in several films with her during her glittering Kollywood career. After Jayalalithaa's demise, her close friend and confidante Sasikala Natarajan (left) took over as general secretary of the AIADMK on December 31.
7. Terror in Kashmir valley: The Kashmir valley witnessed several months of unrest after Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan Wani was killed in an encounter with security forces on July 8. The unrest affected normal life, and resulted in shutdown of schools and death of 86 people. The government had also to grapple with the NIT unrest, mysterious school burning incidents and blinding due to pellet gun firing issues.
8. Legion: Legion, a group of hackers, was in the news for compromising e-mail and Twitter accounts of Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi (picture), liquor baron Vijay Mallya, and two prominent senior journalists. A member of the group shared with TOI a list of what he claimed are email addresses and passwords of nearly 74,000 chartered accountants in the country. He said he had compromised the accounts of former Indian Premier League chairman Lalit Modi, and the sansad.nic.in domain, though the data is yet to be dumped.
9. PM Narendra Modi: It's been an eventful year for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was declared Person of the Year by the readers of TIME magazine. His government implemented demonetisation, and the Army conducted surgical strikes across the Line of Control after the Uri attack. He made several state visits, made a historic speech in the US Congress in 2016.
10. Olympics: It was a special year for India at the Olympic Games and at the Paralympic Games in Rio. PV Sindhu clinched the silver medal in the womens' singles badminton final, and Sakshi Malik won the bronze medal in the women's wrestling event. Dipa Karmakar became the first Indian gymnast to reach an Olympic final. Four Indian Paralympians - Mariyappan Thangavelu (gold, men's T42 high jump), Devendra Jhajharia (gold, men's F46 javelin throw), Deepa Malik (silver, women's F53 shot put) and Varun Singh Bhati (bronze, men's T42 high jump) - also made the nation proud at the Rio Paralympics.
11. India-Pakistan relationship:Pakistan's relationship with India has deteriorated significantly in 2016, after Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attacks in Pathankot (Punjab) and Uri (Jammu and Kashmir), the unrest in the Kashmir valley after the death of terrorist Burhan Wani (whom Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called a 'martyr), India's surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and diplomatic efforts made by India to isolate its neighbour on the world stage.
In September, the US and China - the world's top two emitters of greenhouse gases - ratified the Paris Climate agreement - which was approved by 195 countries, including India, in December last year.
12. RBI: Raghuram Rajan, the former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, made way for currenct RBI chief Urijit Patel on September 4. Rajan's resignation came earlier in the year after BJP leader Subramanian Swamy wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to accuse Rajan of "harming the nation's economy." Former Finance Minister P Chidambaram said he was "profoundly saddened" by Rajan's decision, and blamed the BJP-led government for his exit.
The RBI was often in the news in November and December, as it announced frequent rule changes after Prime Minister Modi announced demonetisation.
13. Surgical strike: Just days after the September 19 terrorist attack in Uri, Jammu and Kashmir, India's Director General of Military Operations Lt Gen Ranbir Singh announced that the Army had conducted surgical strikes' on terrorist launch pads across the Line of Control. Surgical strikes are military operations undertaken by forces across the world to move on the offensive, hit enemy targets and installations, and return to primary positions - all with lightening speed and with the added precaution of suffering limited casualty.
14. Uri attack: On September 19, terrorists crossed the Line of Control and attacked an army camp in Uri, Jammu and Kashmir, killing 19 jawans. The attack sparked outrage across the nation, and just days later, the Indian Army responded by conducting surgical strikes on terror launch pads across the LoC. The Uri attack was just one of several events in 2016 that have led to a marked deterioration in the India-Pakistan relationship.
15. Vijay Mallya: Beleaguered liquor baron Vijay Mallya owes over Rs 9,000 crore to a consortium of banks. The United Breweries boss left India in March this year, and has received several summons from the Enforcement Directorate in connection with its money laundering probe. However, he has avoided personal appearance so far.
16. India beat Belgium 2-1 to win the 2016 Hockey Junior World Cup at Major Dhyan Chand Stadium in Lucknow. The last time the Indian junior team had won the title was in 2001.
17. Sawajwadi Party: A feud within the Yadav clan headed by Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav reached boiling point on December 30, when Mulayam expelled his son, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, from the party for six years. However, Akhilesh was reinstated the very next day.
2017
BJP: The new Congress
Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a ringing speech earlier this week in the wake of BJP's spectacular victory in Uttar Pradesh. He almost singlehandedly obtained for BJP, after all, the sort of majority in UP that no other party has come close to achieving in over three decades.
One of the key elements of Modi's victory speech was the idea that the election result laid the foundation of a `new' India where development is the key mantra. There was also an appropriation of the pro-poor rhetoric that has always been a staple of Congress, with a subtle twist.
This was driven home by BJP president Amit Shah, the other architect of the UP victory , who claimed that the Modi government has been one for the poor, Dalits, tribals and farmers. Indeed, there is more than a hint in the `new' India of the sort of rhetoric and style of politics that defined Indira Gandhi, the only figure comparable to Modi in India's political history.
But more than the comparison to an older style practised by Indira, there are several elements in BJP's brand of politics drawn from the Congress playbook. This has been more than apparent in the BJP's eagerness to take on board individuals of various stripes from other parties with the sole aim of winning elections, something that Congress used to practise under Indira.
In the 2014 general elections and most of the state elections that have followed BJP has been boosted by defectors, many of them from Congress. Some like Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam have proved critical to BJP's electoral success while others have had a marginal impact.
In the just-concluded elections there were several such defectors who were given tickets by BJP, from BSP's Swami Prasad Maurya in UP to Congress's N Biren Singh, who is the new chief minister of Manipur. This has not only diluted any ideological coherence that BJP might have had but also given lie to the claim that it is a party with a difference.
The way BJP rushed in to form governments in Goa and Manipur, despite being well short of a majority , too was reminiscent of the Congress of yore. In Manipur BJP has, at least, taken on board three smaller parties which are allies along with other individual MLAs. In Goa, however, BJP has tied up with opponents such as the Goa Forward Party (GFP) to form the government.
During the recent election campaign in Goa GFP and its leader Vijai Sardesai campaigned on a plank of ousting BJP from the state. But as soon as results were announced BJP did not hesitate a moment to tie up with GFP which had won three seats. All three GFP MLAs have been rewarded with ministerial berths in the Manohar Parrikarled government, which was sworn in Tuesday and won a vote of confidence subsequently .
Significantly, GFP's president resigned in protest soon after its newly-elected MLAs decided to support BJP. Indeed, the way the government was formed in Goa exemplifies the no-holdsbarred approach of the BJP under Modi and Shah. It has also taken much of the sheen off what was supposed to be the triumphant homecoming of Parrikar after resigning as defence minister.
BJP's efforts have been aided by pliant governors, yet another legacy of Congress days. The institution of state governors had been systematically subverted by Congress to appoint party loyalists and has-beens, who were often partial to Congress interests.
This was especially so during sensitive moments like formation of government and imposition of President's Rule.BJP has continued this policy of treating the governor's post as a sinecure for loyalists or R S S veterans. It might be added that BJP , like Congress, has not been averse to using Article 356.
One of the professed goals of BJP is to have an India mukt (free) of Congress. In the brave new world of the prime minister Congress has become virtually extinct, but many pernicious elements of the Congress system are still very much alive.
The writer is senior research fellow, National University of Singapore
High-command culture
Subhash Mishra | High-command culture grips BJP | Mar 19 2017 : The Times of India
The `high-command syndrome', once Congress's disease, now seems to have afflicted BJP as well. And it is tormenting BJP legislators who feel that despite having won 312 seats out of 403, they didn't have much say in the selection of the new CM.
None of the three -the CM and two Deputy CMs -are legislators. While CM-designate Yogi Adityanath and one deputy CM Keshav Maurya are MPs, the other deputy Dinesh Sharma is Lucknow mayor.
“What's the difference in BJP and Congress as both are ruled by the invisible high command ,“ said an MLC, asking, “Despite so many experienced leaders among MLAs, why are none of them being elevated as the CM?“ It is not only the CM's name that was finalised by the high command, most ministers would also be picked up in Delhi.“It was for this reason majority MLAs had been camping in Delhi since March 11,“ he said.
“It was the Congress cul ture that the high command would make or mar the fortunes of regional leaders. The same is gripping BJP as well,“ says another UP leader.
